January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and nearly 50 down here today and feels like a heat wave. Since there is no winter weather at home over the next week the sunshine is a nice feeling and I will get outside the next 3 days. Problems in trying to figure out the upcoming pattern after January 4th or so. No doubt a nice warm but wet period expected and would not be surprised by next Wednesday when I return home that 2-4 inches of rain has fell. What is the problem after that and do we get enough cold air involved to get some winter weather. If you look at the mjo and that weather tool would say no that is not going to happen but I don't believe the mjo is in control. I say this because some of the better known met's are not even agreeing on what phase we are in at the moment less alone a future phase. The AO by next week should start to go negative again but not nearly what we just saw and the NAO looks to head towards neutral. IMO a slightly negative AO along with a near neutral NAO and adding a storm track that looks to get pushed further south over the next week to ten days should bring some chances of winter weather to the Ohio Valley. I will Les examine the model runs on this and see if there is some agreement. Blocking has been key this season and it looks like we could get that once again starting later next week. If this occurs and we have the over the top from say Alaska to Norway then a trough should be somewhere over the eastern part of the country. Yes over the next week a decent southeast ridge should be in place but with each system that should get pushed further to the southeast.

Timing and that is always tough with a pattern change and the last one took probably close to a week longer than any model showed. I believe this one is not going to take that long and one reason the AO is not going to be off the charts negative which imo just slowed the process down. Saying that anytime after say Jan 7-9 I believe winter weather will have chances to return. Of course way to early on any storm this far out but hopefully by the new year we see some systems that have a chance for more snow. More to follow once we get into this new pattern first and see if the pattern is progressive and that is what we need to get into the more favorable pattern to get winter weather around here.

[tron777]

For starters, I think we're on the same page here Tim with our timing. So that's always a plus. I also like that time period for a storm of some kind around the 7-10th. I just don't know if it's a cutter, Apps runner, or an upper low. All options are on the table this far out,. Then is the cold going to be sustainable, or is the pattern going to remain progressive? I don't a see big time -NAO either. The last cold wave was absolutely assisted by a -5 STD EPO so we could use that help again to dump more cold into the picture. The ATL helps, but by far, the Pacific is of far more importance to us in winter. The PNA is still a major wildcard for me. We'd like to see some +PNA spikes again, that would be nice. As we saw with the Christmas Bliz, the position of the PNA is oh so critical in terms of jet stream amplification and storm track for us. What I am confident on right now is a seasonal brand of cold which can still mean snow as mid January is our coldest time of the year. Any severe cold like what we just had, I think is delayed until late Jan and into Feb. I think we could have another round of bitter cold then if the SSW occurs and breaks the right way. But anyway for now.. we will continue to keep that one eye open look for 1/7-1/10 for the next decent shot of snow.

[tpweather]

Les I believe we are on the same page. Different ways to get there of course and we both see similar things and also we differ in other areas but if we end up in the same place with a similar timeline I feel much more confident.

[tron777]

Les I believe we are on the same page. Different ways to get there of course and we both see similar things and also we differ in other areas but if we end up in the same place with a similar timeline I feel much more confident.

Same here Tim. Another possibility too I forgot to mention was the 1/3 Cutter brings the front thru and is a table setter for another wave to work up along the front around 1/5 or whatever. There are so many different ways this pattern can go for our targeted time period. We've already seen some wild solutions. More are in the offing.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We should be dry NYD then get wet again late on the 2nd and esp on Jan 3rd. Temps in the 60+ range appears likely with some t-storms even possible. I think the severe threat may be south of us but some thunder and lightning is possible right now with this system. I think up to 1" of rain is possible with this one esp with t-storms getting involved. A second low rides up the front on the 4th bringing in one last shot of rain. Can the cold air catch up for some snow with that? Right now, it is looking like the cold air will lag behind this system so all rain is expected at this point. Then after all of that wet and mild weather, winter like temps return as we've been talking about after the 1st week and we should be in winter weather tracking mode again instead of rain, rain, rain.

[Bgoney]

Wow, quite the pattern flip upcoming. SOI is positively out of control which means LaNina background state is still a factor. PV has been ramping up of late and is at near record strength. -EPO is gone, -NAO is leaving, - PNA is crushing the west coast . The GOM is open as well as the PAC with modified pac air and then we have the door closed on Arctic air into the lower 48. How's that for some change?
Doesn't mean we can't see some kind of wintry weather , we still will see seasonal cold fronts move through after low passages and maybe a shortwave can thread the needle with one of those brief colder few days. How long does the Arctic stay closed for the OV , still going with at least to the 10th and possibly beyond.

Screenshot_20221228-095148_Chrome.jpg

[Bgoney]

Here's the PV for today


The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 55.5 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 3.2 m/s 2001
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 61.3 m/s 1988

[tpweather]

Here's the PV for today


The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 55.5 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 3.2 m/s 2001
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 61.3 m/s 1988

Good Morning Bgoney. No doubt big storms like the one we just had can alter the weather patterns quickly. This is especially true the further north these systems end up being located. Where does the cold build up this time and with the strong polar vortex that means north of the arctic circle at the moment. Not only will we be mild but much of the northern hemisphere south of the arctic circle. Places like Europe,much of Asia and the USA including Alaska. Like you mentioned we can still pull down some cold with a storm but that is when you really thread the needle. Do we get the blocking pattern that has been common this season to once again make an appearance. The trend is yes and but even trends will fade away. I was just shocked how quickly this pattern turned which threw off my forecast of a January Thaw around the 9th or 10th. Had to move that one up by 10 days. Since late September we have been going back and forth between much above normal to much below normal temps. By months end Nov and Dec will end up really close to normal on temps and depending on rainfall before the end of the year we should be slightly below normal but early January looks very wet. Seeing the west coast get rain and especially southern California and also many of the mountains of the west. So the new pattern is not all bad news.

[tron777]

I have no changes... looks wet the night of the 2nd thru the 4th. Then can we thread the needle in that 7-10th time period? These are the things I'm looking at. I'm also in agreement that we see seasonal cold. That is highs 30-40 and lows in the 20s. That is normal for mid January and we can snow with those kinds of temps. I believe the arctic air will return but I also believe that it won't be right away. Thinking later in January and lasting into February as well. I think we are all 3 on the same page to be honest. The big storm changed the pattern about a week earlier then I thought. That's been the only bug-a-boo we've seen thus far.

[Bgoney]

GFS showing dewpoints into the mid 50s for the 3/4th system

[tron777]

GFS showing dewpoints into the mid 50s for the 3/4th system

Yep! Certainly a heavy rain and possible strong t-storm risk with that one.

[tpweather]

GFS showing dewpoints into the mid 50s for the 3/4th system

That period imo looks like we may need to look at some localized flooding. With all the ice and snow melt before and the rain later this week places that get flooded easily may need to be aware which those folks are always on top of the flooding issues. I can easily see over 2 inches on the 3rd/4th and though I believe the models may try and show some severe weather but that usually ends up more of a heavy rain threat.

[tron777]

GFS showing dewpoints into the mid 50s for the 3/4th system

That period imo looks like we may need to look at some localized flooding. With all the ice and snow melt before and the rain later this week places that get flooded easily may need to be aware which those folks are always on top of the flooding issues. I can easily see over 2 inches on the 3rd/4th and though I believe the models may try and show some severe weather but that usually ends up more of a heavy rain threat.

Having somewhat of a drought will help with this, but I mentioned the other day of at least a localized flooding threat being possible. Not sure about the larger systems like the Ohio as they will depend on snow melt and upstream rainfall.

[tpweather]

GFS showing dewpoints into the mid 50s for the 3/4th system

That period imo looks like we may need to look at some localized flooding. With all the ice and snow melt before and the rain later this week places that get flooded easily may need to be aware which those folks are always on top of the flooding issues. I can easily see over 2 inches on the 3rd/4th and though I believe the models may try and show some severe weather but that usually ends up more of a heavy rain threat.

Having somewhat of a drought will help with this, but I mentioned the other day of at least a localized flooding threat being possible. Not sure about the larger systems like the Ohio as they will depend on snow melt and upstream rainfall.

Exactly Les and we know it takes longer for the bigger water holes. Should be some melting upstream but not sure now much rain they get well into Pa and NY.

[tpweather]

Over the next 10 days you want these systems to come in rather fast and hopefully break down the southeast ridge some overtime. But once we get into the 7-10th we need more spacing as this would allow some cold air from Canada to head this way. Even though much of Canada is still really cold they will warm up some as well but looks to get colder once again in about a week or so and they still have plenty of snow on the ground and should get some added over the next week.

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS has more of a -PNA pattern / SE ridge in the extended range and it isn't as cold as it has been. If you look at the CMC, much colder in its extended range. Big difference with a 1047 MB high over Eastern Canada and the GFS having a 1030 MB high over us valid for the same time period. (240 hours, Day 10).

[tpweather]

12Z OP GFS has more of a -PNA pattern / SE ridge in the extended range and it isn't as cold as it has been. If you look at the CMC, much colder in its extended range. Big difference with a 1047 MB high over Eastern Canada and the GFS having a 1030 MB high over us valid for the same time period. (240 hours, Day 10).

Les the trend this season has been the CMC has been much better with patterns and even different storms compared to the other two models. We slam that model quite often and it usually ends up similar to the Euro but this year for some reason it has been the leader.

[tron777]

Wow... the SPC already has a Day 6 15% area outlooked as close as Western KY.

day6prob.gif

[tron777]

1-2" of rain coming after the NY's system per the Euro on the 3-4th. That low really wraps up well to the West so def watching the strong t-storm threat on Tues. Def a heavy rain threat as mentioned if nothing else. Too bad we have no cold air. Love the track for that second low on the 4th we keep seeing.

[winterstormjoe]

I have no changes... looks wet the night of the 2nd thru the 4th. Then can we thread the needle in that 7-10th time period? These are the things I'm looking at. I'm also in agreement that we see seasonal cold. That is highs 30-40 and lows in the 20s. That is normal for mid January and we can snow with those kinds of temps. I believe the arctic air will return but I also believe that it won't be right away. Thinking later in January and lasting into February as well. I think we are all 3 on the same page to be honest. The big storm changed the pattern about a week earlier then I thought. That's been the only bug-a-boo we've seen thus far.

I can see that Siberian blast coming again in a hurry by the end of Jan with the cross polar flow (-EPO, -NAO and -AO). In the meantime, I think we'll see the first half similar to last Jan with the LaNina showing no signs of weaking right now and the PV strengthening, the -PNA and the SE ridge. Get the boats out and maybe we can sneak in a wet snow fall. Just me thoughts for the month.

[tron777]

I have no changes... looks wet the night of the 2nd thru the 4th. Then can we thread the needle in that 7-10th time period? These are the things I'm looking at. I'm also in agreement that we see seasonal cold. That is highs 30-40 and lows in the 20s. That is normal for mid January and we can snow with those kinds of temps. I believe the arctic air will return but I also believe that it won't be right away. Thinking later in January and lasting into February as well. I think we are all 3 on the same page to be honest. The big storm changed the pattern about a week earlier then I thought. That's been the only bug-a-boo we've seen thus far.

I can see that Siberian blast coming again in a hurry by the end of Jan with the cross polar flow (-EPO, -NAO and -AO). In the meantime, I think we'll see the first half similar to last Jan with the La Nina showing no signs of weakening right now and the PV strengthening, the -PNA and the SE ridge. Get the boats out and maybe we can sneak in a wet snow fall. Just me thoughts for the month.

Hey Joe... that SOI being so positive is a concern with regards to how quickly the Nina weakens. I'm also seeing signs of the MJO stalling perhaps in Phase 7 in about 7-10 days from now. Phase 8 would be better for a +PNA and more sustainable cold so that is why I am going more seasonal with temps. Like we are both saying, you can still snow with a well timed event. (Thus, why I am watching Jan 7-10th) Once we get into Weeks 3/4 hopefully, we'll have a better idea as to where we're headed arctic cold wise. I don't think it's over, not by a long shot. I am still seeing guidance showing the Pacific Jet retracting (slowing down) which allows for that Aleutian Low pattern I have talked about. The trough over the West retrogrades towards the Aleutians and we get ridging over Eastern AK / Western Canada for a -EPO. Expecting a -AO as well. NAO and PNA are more question marks for me at this point so I was expecting this to become more of a gradient pattern. Systems come into S California and ride more West to East across the country under the blocking over the top.

[tpweather]

Great Posts guys and not much to add. The mjo has a lot of question marks and so many thoughts out there from met's. What phase are we really in because sometimes it matches what we have thought in the past and other times not so much. With tons of blocking does the mjo become a non-factor. I have no ideal and when mets are throwing out different thoughts it makes me question things.

[tron777]

Great Posts guys and not much to add. The mjo has a lot of question marks and so many thoughts out there from met's. What phase are we really in because sometimes it matches what we have thought in the past and other times not so much. With tons of blocking does the mjo become a non-factor. I have no ideal and when mets are throwing out different thoughts it makes me question things.

It is currently in Phase 5 but it's a weak amplitude. So it's influence is less then it otherwise might be. It's a factor in other words but not an actual driver. The Pacific drove the last cold snap with the -EPO and we also got blocking in the AO and NAO domains as well which helped produce that powerful low pressure system around Christmas time. We need the -EPO to return. If you get a strong -EPO like what we just had, (it was a strongly -WPO / -EPO combo), then the NAO for example doesn't really mean as much for us. Remember, 13-14 was a Pacific driven winter and it was awesome! Majorly -WPO / -EPO which trumped the way positive AO and NAO that winter. It would have been one of the warmest winters on record, 13-14 but it wasn't. The Pacific is just so important to colder weather patterns IMO then anything else.

[tron777]

I've talked about the Pacific Jet as of late. Here's the new 12Z EPS. As you can see for Week 1 in January, the jet is very strong. Typical La Nina. -PNA / SE Ridge.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-uv200_stream-3028000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-3028000.png

But, if the jet does retract a bit as I am expecting for Week 2 in January, you can see the improvements downstream.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-uv200_stream-3524800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-3524800.png

[tpweather]

Les when the mjo was last in 5-7 Larry Cosgrove had it phase 2 and 3. So when a met like Larry is stating a different phase of the mjo then I have tons of questions. So using the mjo charts may or may not be reliable. I believe the weather over the past almost 60 days was sometimes lining up with the mjo and other times not at all. So we may be able to say the mjo was not the controlling factor of the weather.