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Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:57 pm
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:17 pm
In my opinion the goal.posts are narrowing for the storm track. Chicago to the Apps in play.
Very good range in my opinion. Personally, I love where we are at the moment. It's kind of like go big or go home. We may end up with the short end of the stick and Indiana on west gets hammered or we may end up with the long end of the stick and we get buried. This is shaping up to be a high end event. Someone in the Ohio Valley and Midwest is going to see a blizzard warning out of this, more than likely. If this heads "back" east just a little this could end up being an awesome storm for AV land. I guess the real question is the westward shift a trend or a wobble? If it's a wobble we are in great position. A trend more to the west and we get the short end.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:02 pm
by mainevilleweather
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:33 pm
by tron777
Euro is still too far west for us but it is SE of the 0z run.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:34 pm
by dce
The Euro looks pretty much the same as the 00z run. The next 48 hours we will hopefully see more model agreement. I would think by Monday morning we should have a pretty decent grasp on the track, but who knows. These kind of storms like to throw curveballs.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:34 pm
by Bgoney
EU now with 3 runs in a row of fairly similar track
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:39 pm
by mainevilleweather
Go GFS!
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:41 pm
by Bgoney
ULL closes over Iowa
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 1:49 pm
by tron777
We'll see in the next couple of days which one caves. We hope the Euro caves but it wouldn't surprise me if the GfS caves in reality since it trending that way. That PNA ridge is off the coast so it'll cut quicker unfortunately. That's the biggest issue in my mind.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 2:37 pm
by tpweather
Good Afternoon and had to look at the models as I was watching this wonderful football game lol. Like I said before I really love the recent gfs. I believe this storm is going to dig further south than the euro is showing and you saw the cmc head east today. After I got my thoughts together I looked at Bernie's videos which I wish we had more of him because he is one of the best imo. Not saying because he agrees with my thoughts but he really gets into details and explains small things make a difference. My main reason for the a system digging deeper is the cross-polar air. Very seldom are we getting Siberian cold in our area. Will it be a blizzard and no way to say yes on this but I can tell you in 1978 it was not until 48 hours of the storm that anybody saw that kind of storm. Of course models have got better and you can tell because they are showing something this far out but I may be beating a dead horse here but Siberian Air will go further south than most models will show.
So at the end of the day I really like the GFS and believe over the next few days the Euro will dig this system much deeper.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:08 pm
by dce
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1YqxoAOLmMgGv
To your point Tim. Here is a video of Bernie Rayno for those of you who can view it. It is a Twitter link. I sure hope he is right about the upper low. I've watched him for years now. Just like anyone else, sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong, but he definitely knows his stuff.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:20 pm
by tpweather
dce wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:08 pm
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1YqxoAOLmMgGv
To your point Tim. Here is a video of Bernie Rayno for those of you who can view it. It is a Twitter link. I sure hope he is right about the upper low. I've watched him for years now. Just like anyone else, sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong, but he definitely knows his stuff.
I agree Doug and he is not a northeast hack. He is like everyone else and hits some home runs and strikes out as well. I just love the way he really gets into deeper details. He made several good points today and sometimes I get on that island by myself and need at least one person who sort of sees what I see. This is going to be a big storm and even if we just got a few inches the wind and cold plus fast freeze will cause problems. Who gets hit the hardest is still up in the air but at this point I love where we sit. I mentioned earlier if this was just a Canadian brand of cold I would lean more towards the Euro but this is a cross polar brand of air and this is much more rare than folks believe. Sure we can get brushed by it some years but this is where the push is coming down along with some decent energy.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:41 pm
by tron777
EPS matches the OP Euro.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:46 pm
by dce
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:20 pm
dce wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:08 pm
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1YqxoAOLmMgGv
To your point Tim. Here is a video of Bernie Rayno for those of you who can view it. It is a Twitter link. I sure hope he is right about the upper low. I've watched him for years now. Just like anyone else, sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong, but he definitely knows his stuff.
I agree Doug and he is not a northeast hack. He is like everyone else and hits some home runs and strikes out as well. I just love the way he really gets into deeper details. He made several good points today and sometimes I get on that island by myself and need at least one person who sort of sees what I see. This is going to be a big storm and even if we just got a few inches the wind and cold plus fast freeze will cause problems. Who gets hit the hardest is still up in the air but at this point I love where we sit. I mentioned earlier if this was just a Canadian brand of cold I would lean more towards the Euro but this is a cross polar brand of air and this is much more rare than folks believe. Sure we can get brushed by it some years but this is where the push is coming down along with some decent energy.
Yes, this brand of cold is different. Just one more reason why we haven't seen the final outcome from the models. This storm may end up being modeled even a little stronger the closer we get to the event. Whatever happens this is going to be fun to watch unfold. The potential is there for an historic type storm for AV land. I'm not saying it is going to be historic, just that the potential is there. If we were to get, say, 6-10 inches of snow with gusts 40-50 mph like is being modeled, that would be historic for AV land. We just don't see that around here. To see this potential 6 days out is very encouraging. Now we just have to watch how it unfolds. Could be a big let down, could be historic.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:56 pm
by mikeyp
0881CEA1-A9D3-4119-AE83-4E380C0F334E.jpeg
We are doomed for sure
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:00 pm
by tron777
mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:56 pm
0881CEA1-A9D3-4119-AE83-4E380C0F334E.jpeg
We are doomed for sure
Yep! It's a cutter now for sure. LOL
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:02 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:00 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:56 pm
0881CEA1-A9D3-4119-AE83-4E380C0F334E.jpeg
We are doomed for sure
Yep! It's a cutter now for sure. LOL
Okay changed my mind and we are in for 52 and all rain lol
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:11 pm
by mikeyp
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:00 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:56 pm
0881CEA1-A9D3-4119-AE83-4E380C0F334E.jpeg
We are doomed for sure
Yep! It's a cutter now for sure. LOL
He is a great meteorologist!! But he should no
hahahaha jk lol
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:21 pm
by tpweather
Will be interesting to see the new gfs at 430pm. No way its going back to the southeast it showed yesterday but will it continue with a similar outcome it had earlier today. The euro slowed down so much today and does not agree with the cmc which is closer to the gfs. Again I don't believe the euro is handling the cross polar air. Cold air is heavy to begin with but getting air that is coming from Siberia and little chance to warm up makes me even more confident that the euro is incorrect. Btw what the heck with the game as it is a tie ballgame
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:40 pm
by tron777
Tim... Down 33-0 and now you might lose. Jeff Saturday should be embarrassed lol
Peeking at GFS too...
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:43 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:40 pm
Tim... Down 33-0 and now you might lose. Jeff Saturday should be embarrassed lol
I am a huge Browns fan today lol
Peeking at GFS too...
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:09 pm
by MattD41
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:40 pm
Tim... Down 33-0 and now you might lose. Jeff Saturday should be embarrassed lol
Peeking at GFS too...
This is great!
Someone say snow?
Hey yall!
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:15 pm
by tron777
18Z GFS ticked SE. Decent run!!
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:17 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:15 pm
18Z GFS ticked SE. Decent run!!
Les it ticked southeast because its somewhat weaker but not by much. I believe at the start of this storm you may get a few hours of rain but the temperature will drop like a rock and the ratios of snow will be much higher than normal. So far so good imo
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 6:14 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:17 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:15 pm
18Z GFS ticked SE. Decent run!!
Les it ticked southeast because its somewhat weaker but not by much. I believe at the start of this storm you may get a few hours of rain but the temperature will drop like a rock and the ratios of snow will be much higher than normal. So far so good imo
Somebody's going to cave on Monday. The Euro all last winter did over amp storms. Is that the case here? I don't know. That satellite pic I posted the other day showered a strong piece of energy so who knows for sure.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2022 6:20 pm
by tron777
18z gefs mean looked great! Right up the Apps!
hahahaha jk lol