December 2022 Weather Discussion

[Angelika]

What’s everyone’s general opinion on YouTuber Ryan Hall?

I like him. And he seems to cover stuff that isn't being covered here, so that's a plus. Sometimes it seems like people only care about snow on here.

[airwolf76]

Hey Tim... I have no idea what'll happen and neither does anyone else. However, I can't tell you how many times I have read on the internet today with Pro Met's and Hobbyists alike, touting how much the December pattern favors a match to 2010-2011. Dec 2010 was the snowiest on record at CVG with 16.6" falling for the month. It was also the 8th coldest Dec on record as well. January 2011 also had blocking episodes and some fun still continued into January as well. So we'll see I guess. No two winters are alike. But I can say with one thing... having a -EPO and a -NAO in combination with a -PNA.... someone is going to get stomped with wintry weather. That is a great teleconnection combo and one that I really like seeing. With all good looking patterns, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't.

very true. could be another December to remember coming

[tron777]

What’s everyone’s general opinion on YouTuber Ryan Hall?

I like him. And he seems to cover stuff that isn't being covered here, so that's a plus. Sometimes it seems like people only care about snow on here.

I haven't watched any of Ryan's videos but some of those folks on YouTube, like Direct Weather are only there for clicks and likes. Hopefully Ryan is genuine and not one of those people. Also, not sure why someone would feel like only some people care about snow on here. Yeah it's my favorite, it always has been but you regular people already know that. And we do cover t-storms, the tropics, drought, everything that comes our way. This time of year and for the next few months, snow is the dominant talk because it is winter after all.

[tron777]

Our first challenge for December is not going to be figuring out the pattern change or snow, it is going to be heavy rain while a couple of cold fronts take there time moving thru thanks to the SE Ridge. This weekend around Sunday or so is the first slug of moisture. Second one is early next week around Tues or so. I won't officially forecast rainfall amounts yet but 1-2" thru the first week of December is certainly doable.

[Angelika]

What’s everyone’s general opinion on YouTuber Ryan Hall?

I like him. And he seems to cover stuff that isn't being covered here, so that's a plus. Sometimes it seems like people only care about snow on here.

I haven't watched any of Ryan's videos but some of those folks on YouTube, like Direct Weather are only there for clicks and likes. Hopefully Ryan is genuine and not one of those people. Also, not sure why someone would feel like only some people care about snow on here. Yeah it's my favorite, it always has been but you regular people already know that. And we do cover t-storms, the tropics, drought, everything that comes our way. This time of year and for the next few months, snow is the dominant talk because it is winter after all.

We are in a marginal risk for severe weather today and not a word about it here, just talk about future possible snow. I realize it's winter, and most people like snow, but we have other stuff going on too.

[young pup]

What’s everyone’s general opinion on YouTuber Ryan Hall?

I like him. And he seems to cover stuff that isn't being covered here, so that's a plus. Sometimes it seems like people only care about snow on here.

I haven't watched any of Ryan's videos but some of those folks on YouTube, like Direct Weather are only there for clicks and likes. Hopefully Ryan is genuine and not one of those people. Also, not sure why someone would feel like only some people care about snow on here. Yeah it's my favorite, it always has been but you regular people already know that. And we do cover t-storms, the tropics, drought, everything that comes our way. This time of year and for the next few months, snow is the dominant talk because it is winter after all.

We are in a marginal risk for severe weather today and not a word about it here, just talk about future possible snow. I realize it's winter, and most people like snow, but we have other stuff going on too.

This is the December thread. It's been mentioned in the November thread a couple of times.

[young pup]

Our first challenge for December is not going to be figuring out the pattern change or snow, it is going to be heavy rain while a couple of cold fronts take there time moving thru thanks to the SE Ridge. This weekend around Sunday or so is the first slug of moisture. Second one is early next week around Tues or so. I won't officially forecast rainfall amounts yet but 1-2" thru the first week of December is certainly doable.

Well we do need the rain. At least it won't be too cold while it's raining and wishing it was snow.

[tron777]

What’s everyone’s general opinion on YouTuber Ryan Hall?

I like him. And he seems to cover stuff that isn't being covered here, so that's a plus. Sometimes it seems like people only care about snow on here.

I haven't watched any of Ryan's videos but some of those folks on YouTube, like Direct Weather are only there for clicks and likes. Hopefully Ryan is genuine and not one of those people. Also, not sure why someone would feel like only some people care about snow on here. Yeah it's my favorite, it always has been but you regular people already know that. And we do cover t-storms, the tropics, drought, everything that comes our way. This time of year and for the next few months, snow is the dominant talk because it is winter after all.

We are in a marginal risk for severe weather today and not a word about it here, just talk about future possible snow. I realize it's winter, and most people like snow, but we have other stuff going on too.

I have mentioned the marginal risk a couple of times in the last couple of days in the Nov thread. We've talked about the wind too. Maybe you missed it? But we have talked about it.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Yes we have talked about the system for tonight and what may occur but to us its not a hot topic because I believe it will be a minor issue. I know when we see a good signal for severe we talk about it quite often. The main thing with this system is gusty winds a nice temperature drop behind the front.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. Yes we have talked about the system for tonight and what may occur but to us its not a hot topic because I believe it will be a minor issue. I know when we see a good signal for severe we talk about it quite often. The main thing with this system is gusty winds a nice temperature drop behind the front.

Good morning Tim and I agree. Winds to 50 mph as we've said in the Nov thread with a half inch of rain is going to be what the bulk of folks see on here with this next system. The temp drop will be a big ole slap in the face! But then we warm right back up and that leads us to the heavy rain threat to deal with before we track cold and snow.

[Angelika]

What’s everyone’s general opinion on YouTuber Ryan Hall?

I like him. And he seems to cover stuff that isn't being covered here, so that's a plus. Sometimes it seems like people only care about snow on here.

I haven't watched any of Ryan's videos but some of those folks on YouTube, like Direct Weather are only there for clicks and likes. Hopefully Ryan is genuine and not one of those people. Also, not sure why someone would feel like only some people care about snow on here. Yeah it's my favorite, it always has been but you regular people already know that. And we do cover t-storms, the tropics, drought, everything that comes our way. This time of year and for the next few months, snow is the dominant talk because it is winter after all.

We are in a marginal risk for severe weather today and not a word about it here, just talk about future possible snow. I realize it's winter, and most people like snow, but we have other stuff going on too.

This is the December thread. It's been mentioned in the November thread a couple of times.

The last time I was in it I thought Les was closing it? He said it was done and he was starting December, so I haven't been back to it.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Yes we have talked about the system for tonight and what may occur but to us its not a hot topic because I believe it will be a minor issue. I know when we see a good signal for severe we talk about it quite often. The main thing with this system is gusty winds a nice temperature drop behind the front.

Good morning Tim and I agree. Winds to 50 mph as we've said in the Nov thread with a half inch of rain is going to be what the bulk of folks see on here with this next system. The temp drop will be a big ole slap in the face! But then we warm right back up and that leads us to the heavy rain threat to deal with before we track cold and snow.

I agree Les and early next week signs are pointing to a nice rain event as the GOM will have recovered. Then we get cold behind the front but still not quite in the winter pattern we are expecting towards mid-month. Still have some problems with the high down in the Yucatan and it wants to fight it with the colder air for awhile but by mid-month I expect the strongest ridging to move from that area and this will allow the cold to drop much further to the south. So yes it is a slow process but this time of year getting cold air masses north in southern Canada is fine plus they are getting more snow which hopefully enhances the cold and then we just need that highway to move towards up. During the next 10 days we will get some quick shots of cold behind a front so just a little tease of what should happen later in December.

[tpweather]

I have talked about how forecasts in Russia are wild and they change daily buy 30 degrees. Next week in parts of eastern Siberia they are showing some temps at -120 with several days below -100 . Do I believe those number and the answer is no but I do believe they are getting really cold and with heavier snowfall further north in the past couple of weeks helps in getting temperatures even colder. So I could see -80 which happens almost every year so yes a nice cold spell for them and lets just hope it does not get locked up in the that area and if we can get a cross polar situation later this month we could really have a nice cold spell on our hands and depending on snow cover in the northern half of the USA temps may drop well below 0 for us locally. Again to early to forecast on the cross polar situation but gives us something else to look at in the future.

[tron777]

The last time I was in it I thought Les was closing it? He said it was done and he was starting December, so I haven't been back to it.

On that particular day, I mentioned I was starting the December thread, but I never said anything about closing the Nov thread. Just a simple misunderstanding honestly. It's all good, Ang

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. Yes we have talked about the system for tonight and what may occur but to us its not a hot topic because I believe it will be a minor issue. I know when we see a good signal for severe we talk about it quite often. The main thing with this system is gusty winds a nice temperature drop behind the front.

Good morning Tim and I agree. Winds to 50 mph as we've said in the Nov thread with a half inch of rain is going to be what the bulk of folks see on here with this next system. The temp drop will be a big ole slap in the face! But then we warm right back up and that leads us to the heavy rain threat to deal with before we track cold and snow.

I agree Les and early next week signs are pointing to a nice rain event as the GOM will have recovered. Then we get cold behind the front but still not quite in the winter pattern we are expecting towards mid-month. Still have some problems with the high down in the Yucatan and it wants to fight it with the colder air for awhile but by mid-month I expect the strongest ridging to move from that area and this will allow the cold to drop much further to the south. So yes it is a slow process but this time of year getting cold air masses north in southern Canada is fine plus they are getting more snow which hopefully enhances the cold and then we just need that highway to move towards up. During the next 10 days we will get some quick shots of cold behind a front so just a little tease of what should happen later in December.

I see no reason to change the 12/10-12/15 call at this time. Everything is going according to plan in my mind with the MJO and PNA behaviors being the bigger wildcards. I feel confident on the -EPO and especially the -NAO for blocking developing as scheduled.

[tpweather]

Les not changing at all with the forecast at this point but I always look around the world to see if an event can alter the pattern. The system next week should really be the start of the pattern change to a much colder pattern. Sure we start out with some decent rains but hopefully folks northwest of us start to pile on the snow. This will help in getting colder air to move further south. Still believe we probably are still about 2 weeks away to we settle in the new pattern but getting mild and rain is usually what happens in the winter before we head into a colder pattern.

[tpweather]

This is a weather event you don't see often in late November through February. Four to six inches of snow may fall near Barrow,Alaska. Sounds like this would happen all the time but no they really do not get many big snows and sure they have plenty of ground blizzards but bigger snows happen rarely.

[tron777]

Les not changing at all with the forecast at this point but I always look around the world to see if an event can alter the pattern. The system next week should really be the start of the pattern change to a much colder pattern. Sure we start out with some decent rains but hopefully folks northwest of us start to pile on the snow. This will help in getting colder air to move further south. Still believe we probably are still about 2 weeks away to we settle in the new pattern but getting mild and rain is usually what happens in the winter before we head into a colder pattern.

I like what BG said in his video today.... it'll take several storm systems before the cold can fully take over. We're talking 2-3 systems at least so with that in mind, I'm already glad I went later with my call then what the models were showing a week or so ago. A wait and see game for sure. We've got plenty on our plate right now anyway.

[tron777]

12Z GFS only gives CVG 0.20" for rain on Sat as the first front moves in. Periods of heavier rain are showing up Monday and Tues of next week with the next slow moving front. 1-2" of rain is still looking good for event totals.

[tpweather]

Les not changing at all with the forecast at this point but I always look around the world to see if an event can alter the pattern. The system next week should really be the start of the pattern change to a much colder pattern. Sure we start out with some decent rains but hopefully folks northwest of us start to pile on the snow. This will help in getting colder air to move further south. Still believe we probably are still about 2 weeks away to we settle in the new pattern but getting mild and rain is usually what happens in the winter before we head into a colder pattern.

I like what BG said in his video today.... it'll take several storm systems before the cold can fully take over. We're talking 2-3 systems at least so with that in mind, I'm already glad I went later with my call then what the models were showing a week or so ago. A wait and see game for sure. We've got plenty on our plate right now anyway.

Les you know I have been on the later time period for the change and for the reasons Brian mentioned and it takes several storms for the cold to get in here. That is why imo models usually tend to rush the cold in here almost every year. He made a great point about the NAO and he does not remember one that is that negative. I agree that the models are showing something we don't see often and models will have a hard time in deciding how to handle this situation. Like I mentioned earlier I want to see the NAO at least head towards neutral somewhat. I believe with that strong of a negative NAO it helps in getting the ridging we normally see in the southeast over the Bahamas to be towards the Yucatan. This does not allow systems coming across the USA to dig into the south central states and for the most part we need that to get a decent period of cold weather. Again this is only my thoughts on this and I was just trying to connect the dots. So I hope to see future runs of the models to nudge the NAO slightly towards the neutral side and this I believe is a good sign when that happens.

[BookNerdCarp]

Everyone on YouTube is after clicks and follows - nature of the beast. Ryan Hall included. However, I have found him to be genuine and informative. His "business" does incredible work with devastated areas. I really enjoy his live videos during major events (hurricanes, tornadoes, etc). He has a good team of Storm Chasers he has connected with as well.

Latest video if any one is interested.
https://youtu.be/4RaGotx1yM0

[tpweather]

12Z GFS only gives CVG 0.20" for rain on Sat as the first front moves in. Periods of heavier rain are showing up Monday and Tues of next week with the next slow moving front. 1-2" of rain is still looking good for event totals.

Les I agree about tonight's rainfall and over the weekend. Much of the moisture for tonight is held up to the south and we get mainly the moisture that is available with the front so getting much above .25 will not be easy if the storms to the south really get strong. This weekend I believe not much in the way of GOM moisture is available as it ramps up for next week when a storm digs further south and is able to bring that moisture northward.

[young pup]

I like him. And he seems to cover stuff that isn't being covered here, so that's a plus. Sometimes it seems like people only care about snow on here.

I haven't watched any of Ryan's videos but some of those folks on YouTube, like Direct Weather are only there for clicks and likes. Hopefully Ryan is genuine and not one of those people. Also, not sure why someone would feel like only some people care about snow on here. Yeah it's my favorite, it always has been but you regular people already know that. And we do cover t-storms, the tropics, drought, everything that comes our way. This time of year and for the next few months, snow is the dominant talk because it is winter after all.

We are in a marginal risk for severe weather today and not a word about it here, just talk about future possible snow. I realize it's winter, and most people like snow, but we have other stuff going on too.

This is the December thread. It's been mentioned in the November thread a couple of times.

The last time I was in it I thought Les was closing it? He said it was done and he was starting December, so I haven't been back to it.

Gotcha. I get it now. Fyi. I was not trying to be mean about it.

[tron777]

Everyone on YouTube is after clicks and follows - nature of the beast. Ryan Hall included. However, I have found him to be genuine and informative. His "business" does incredible work with devastated areas. I really enjoy his live videos during major events (hurricanes, tornadoes, etc). He has a good team of Storm Chasers he has connected with as well.

Latest video if any one is interested.
https://youtu.be/4RaGotx1yM0

That's awesome Matt! It is refreshing to see someone using social media for good. These people are okay with me.

[tron777]

12Z GFS only gives CVG 0.20" for rain on Sat as the first front moves in. Periods of heavier rain are showing up Monday and Tues of next week with the next slow moving front. 1-2" of rain is still looking good for event totals.

Les I agree about tonight's rainfall and over the weekend. Much of the moisture for tonight is held up to the south and we get mainly the moisture that is available with the front so getting much above .25 will not be easy if the storms to the south really get strong. This weekend I believe not much in the way of GOM moisture is available as it ramps up for next week when a storm digs further south and is able to bring that moisture northward.

Wondering if my 0.50" is too high because the storms to the south may rob us of some of the moisture flow from the Gulf? We've seen that a lot in the colder months. That is about the only bust potential I see for rainfall amounts. I think we are basically saying the same thing though in our posts.