Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Would be awesome if correct though. Euro Weeklies indicate potential flip to winter late Nov / early Dec. This image is centered on 12/1.I believe we may be on the same time period. I stated about 4 weeks away before a true change to winter and that would be near of just after Thanksgiving. Again timing this far out is going to change but really just trying to figure what the pattern may be around that time period. November is going to be mild overall as the current pattern is no doubt showing some very warm air over the first two weeks and then I expect colder air to try and move eastward and that is when we start to get busy with some stronger systems that you would expect in mid-November and hopefully this means plenty of rainfall.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:44 am Tim.. The only differences we may have is the timing of the potential change to winter. I'm going later like after Thanksgiving. I believe you're maybe a week earlier? It's not a huge deal as long as December delivers as we both think it will. That's the main objective for us snow weenies.
What is interesting is that the EPO is forecast to go negative down the road. Now we've seen head fakes like this before. But if that is real thanks in part due to Scandinavian Ridging, then the -PNA should also begin to rise as well. If we see Scand. ridging and a -EPO work together, that would keep the coldest air on our side of the globe and not Russia, so Canada will fill up with cold easily. With the above look on the Euro Weeklies, should it verify, the cold would ooze into the Central and esp Eastern US. I know it's a lot that has to go right to get December off and running and to break the streak of awful Decembers we've had since 2010. But due to the current set up, this post illustrates what we need to see change over the next month. Will the MJO get out of its funk? That is also a big question that needs to be answered to set the above in motion.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:01 amI believe we may be on the same time period. I stated about 4 weeks away before a true change to winter and that would be near of just after Thanksgiving. Again timing this far out is going to change but really just trying to figure what the pattern may be around that time period. November is going to be mild overall as the current pattern is no doubt showing some very warm air over the first two weeks and then I expect colder air to try and move eastward and that is when we start to get busy with some stronger systems that you would expect in mid-November and hopefully this means plenty of rainfall.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:44 am Tim.. The only differences we may have is the timing of the potential change to winter. I'm going later like after Thanksgiving. I believe you're maybe a week earlier? It's not a huge deal as long as December delivers as we both think it will. That's the main objective for us snow weenies.
I think it's good to see the coldest of air already here even with the lack of snow cover. We don't need -20s like Dec of 89 just 20s and low 30s for it to snow. The biggest concern is where it goes once we get to December. Does it continue out west or do we finally get some action here? We will be monitoring the trends for sure over the next month.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 10:58 am Les just checking on temps on this side of the globe and in Russia. The lowest I could find in Canada was -22 and the coldest in Russia is -2. That is really above normal in Russia for this time of year and makes you wonder with less snowfall this October over there that this will continue. Hopefully this trend is one we see much of the winter but again way to early to know what trends are going to play out.
Yes they really need to mountain snows out there and though much of October has been slow for that to develop they are starting to see changes that should really help over the next few weeks. Been so dry out there and this includes mountain snows over the past few years and to get a heavy snow pack is just what the doctor ordered. Concerning the 1055 the models show and I have no ideal if the models every show that before but again if true this is also a good sign down the road imo unless these highs really get strong in mid-winter and we end up cold and dry.
That is the -EPO I was talking about in the extended range. If it develops, it'll send a chunk of cold air southward into the Central Plains. Maybe slowly bleeding our way thanks to the SE Ridge of course. Whether or not it is 1055 MB remains to be seen but something fairly strong is believable. It happened back in October with the early season cold / flakes, frosts and freezes. So I'm curious to see. Is this real? Is this our winter pattern from time to time? It would be something if this is the pattern.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:31 amYes they really need to mountain snows out there and though much of October has been slow for that to develop they are starting to see changes that should really help over the next few weeks. Been so dry out there and this includes mountain snows over the past few years and to get a heavy snow pack is just what the doctor ordered. Concerning the 1055 the models show and I have no ideal if the models every show that before but again if true this is also a good sign down the road imo unless these highs really get strong in mid-winter and we end up cold and dry.
If the MJO can get a move on towards Phase 8, then it is believable. A big if in my mins right now, but it's worth watching. As of 10/29 it is still stalled. Aussie / Euro models want to get it into 7 by the end of Week 1 in Nov then it dies. GFS does get it into 8 before dying. We'll see what happens.dce wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 10:10 am One thing I have seen on the models the last few runs is a trend to colder weather in the central and eastern US as we approach the middle of November. Who knows if this is the forecasted -EPO taking hold or if this -EPO that is forecasted to occur is just a head fake.
I agree Les and yes a cold front can make it through but very short in nature and we just get the glancing blows of colder air. That is okay by me as I would like to have normal to below normal temps in Dec and not Nov.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:31 pm On this GFS run (12Z) you can see each front trying to push in to knock the SE Ridge down but nothing is strong enough to do so throughout the entire run. Until I see the MJO do something, today's GFS run has a look that I am expecting for the next 3 weeks or so.
Ditto. Let the snow and cold build up over the Rockies / N Plains and Canada. Then unleash for December!tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:36 pmI agree Les and yes a cold front can make it through but very short in nature and we just get the glancing blows of colder air. That is okay by me as I would like to have normal to below normal temps in Dec and not Nov.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:31 pm On this GFS run (12Z) you can see each front trying to push in to knock the SE Ridge down but nothing is strong enough to do so throughout the entire run. Until I see the MJO do something, today's GFS run has a look that I am expecting for the next 3 weeks or so.
I believe the tropics are messing with the models as well. This happens more in August and September but we still have some activity and sure the models are having problems because late Oct and early Nov seldom do we see a system somewhat close to the mainland USA. I have noticed how the models are bouncing back and forth and even the CMC had a system coming into the Hilton Head area next week which is not a good thing for golfers. It has back off some keeping moisture off shore for the most part but even the gfs started to hint at this solution. Going to give it several days but I can see a cold front making it through the Ohio Valley but the pattern at this point is to bring back milder air and like you mentioned unless we start to see the mjo make a move through phase 7 not expecting that pattern to change much in the short term. So getting into a more winter like pattern still looks like it is after mid-month but after this week expect better chances for precip as the colder air out west will try and push eastward and this should start a battle between warm and cold and this usually leads to better precip chances.
IF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:12 pm The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.
Absolutely. It all looks good on paper Tim, but until I see the MJO responding, I'm sticking with my after Thanksgiving call. I am def proceeding with caution with this.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:18 pmIF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:12 pm The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.
I agree Les but after Thanksgiving is still an early start to winter. Really anything before mid-Dec I considered an early start to the season and lets see what happens to the mjo as I feel better that its in phase 6/7 instead of phase 3/4.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:20 pmAbsolutely. It all looks good on paper Tim, but until I see the MJO responding, I'm sticking with my after Thanksgiving call. I am def proceeding with caution with this.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:18 pmIF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:12 pm The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.
True lol Well... we've got the GFS / CFSV2 saying maybe Phase 8 then it's dead., Euro / Aussies say 7 and then dead. Then you've got Kyle MacRitchie's experimental MJO which has it dying in early Nov. Re-emerging in Phase 8 after mid Nov. Getting into Phase 1 after that and perhaps 2 before dying again by Thanksgiving. So we've got quite the model spread highlighting the uncertainty here,tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:24 pmI agree Les but after Thanksgiving is still an early start to winter. Really anything before mid-Dec I considered an early start to the season and lets see what happens to the mjo as I feel better that its in phase 6/7 instead of phase 3/4.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:20 pmAbsolutely. It all looks good on paper Tim, but until I see the MJO responding, I'm sticking with my after Thanksgiving call. I am def proceeding with caution with this.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:18 pmIF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:12 pm The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.