November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Tim.. The only differences we may have is the timing of the potential change to winter. I'm going later like after Thanksgiving. I believe you're maybe a week earlier? It's not a huge deal as long as December delivers as we both think it will. That's the main objective for us snow weenies.

[tron777]

Only 912 hours away... what can go wrong??? Would be awesome if correct though. Euro Weeklies indicate potential flip to winter late Nov / early Dec. This image is centered on 12/1.

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[tpweather]

Tim.. The only differences we may have is the timing of the potential change to winter. I'm going later like after Thanksgiving. I believe you're maybe a week earlier? It's not a huge deal as long as December delivers as we both think it will. That's the main objective for us snow weenies.

I believe we may be on the same time period. I stated about 4 weeks away before a true change to winter and that would be near of just after Thanksgiving. Again timing this far out is going to change but really just trying to figure what the pattern may be around that time period. November is going to be mild overall as the current pattern is no doubt showing some very warm air over the first two weeks and then I expect colder air to try and move eastward and that is when we start to get busy with some stronger systems that you would expect in mid-November and hopefully this means plenty of rainfall.

[tron777]

Tim.. The only differences we may have is the timing of the potential change to winter. I'm going later like after Thanksgiving. I believe you're maybe a week earlier? It's not a huge deal as long as December delivers as we both think it will. That's the main objective for us snow weenies.

I believe we may be on the same time period. I stated about 4 weeks away before a true change to winter and that would be near of just after Thanksgiving. Again timing this far out is going to change but really just trying to figure what the pattern may be around that time period. November is going to be mild overall as the current pattern is no doubt showing some very warm air over the first two weeks and then I expect colder air to try and move eastward and that is when we start to get busy with some stronger systems that you would expect in mid-November and hopefully this means plenty of rainfall.

What is interesting is that the EPO is forecast to go negative down the road. Now we've seen head fakes like this before. But if that is real thanks in part due to Scandinavian Ridging, then the -PNA should also begin to rise as well. If we see Scand. ridging and a -EPO work together, that would keep the coldest air on our side of the globe and not Russia, so Canada will fill up with cold easily. With the above look on the Euro Weeklies, should it verify, the cold would ooze into the Central and esp Eastern US. I know it's a lot that has to go right to get December off and running and to break the streak of awful Decembers we've had since 2010. But due to the current set up, this post illustrates what we need to see change over the next month. Will the MJO get out of its funk? That is also a big question that needs to be answered to set the above in motion.

[tpweather]

Bingo Les and like you mentioned getting the cold to be on this side of the globe is so important. The Scan ridging along with a -epo should help no doubt. If we see the the blocking in Greenland then we are really in business as cold air should come out of northern and central Canada into the eastern half of the country. Many times this can lead to some really decent cold air but sometimes you pay the price and snowfall is much harder to obtain. Not always but when we have a pattern change big storms are involved but we have an La Nina going on and this usually means less help from the stj. Seems to me you get 1-3 big storms a winter in a La Nina and then you deal with weaker pieces of energy.

[tpweather]

Les just checking on temps on this side of the globe and in Russia. The lowest I could find in Canada was -22 and the coldest in Russia is -2. That is really above normal in Russia for this time of year and makes you wonder with less snowfall this October over there that this will continue. Hopefully this trend is one we see much of the winter but again way to early to know what trends are going to play out.

[tron777]

Les just checking on temps on this side of the globe and in Russia. The lowest I could find in Canada was -22 and the coldest in Russia is -2. That is really above normal in Russia for this time of year and makes you wonder with less snowfall this October over there that this will continue. Hopefully this trend is one we see much of the winter but again way to early to know what trends are going to play out.

I think it's good to see the coldest of air already here even with the lack of snow cover. We don't need -20s like Dec of 89 just 20s and low 30s for it to snow. The biggest concern is where it goes once we get to December. Does it continue out west or do we finally get some action here? We will be monitoring the trends for sure over the next month.

[tron777]

Nov 1st... Tues is looking cloudy with some mist or drizzle possible. Then we warm up into the 70s again with lows in the 40s and 50s. GFS keeps the ridge winning the battle and a nice weekend. Euro has rain Sun afternoon and a cold front moving thru Sun night and Monday with heavy rain and t-storms. I'm going with the GFS too and the ridge wins out this weekend. Front delayed until Monday and Tues (Election Day) of next week. Highs until the front comes thru in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Another nice stretch of weather coming up beginning about Wednesday of this week.

[Bgoney]

Can't remember when I've seen a 1055mb(modeled) high in SWCanada in early Nov. before

[tron777]

Can't remember when I've seen a 1055mb(modeled) high in SWCanada in early Nov. before

1st half of November looking great for the West with mountain snows and valley rains. Should be a good Rockies ski season with folks skiing for Thanksgiving!

[tpweather]

Can't remember when I've seen a 1055mb(modeled) high in SWCanada in early Nov. before

1st half of November looking great for the West with mountain snows and valley rains. Should be a good Rockies ski season with folks skiing for Thanksgiving!

Yes they really need to mountain snows out there and though much of October has been slow for that to develop they are starting to see changes that should really help over the next few weeks. Been so dry out there and this includes mountain snows over the past few years and to get a heavy snow pack is just what the doctor ordered. Concerning the 1055 the models show and I have no ideal if the models every show that before but again if true this is also a good sign down the road imo unless these highs really get strong in mid-winter and we end up cold and dry.

[tron777]

Can't remember when I've seen a 1055mb(modeled) high in SWCanada in early Nov. before

1st half of November looking great for the West with mountain snows and valley rains. Should be a good Rockies ski season with folks skiing for Thanksgiving!

Yes they really need to mountain snows out there and though much of October has been slow for that to develop they are starting to see changes that should really help over the next few weeks. Been so dry out there and this includes mountain snows over the past few years and to get a heavy snow pack is just what the doctor ordered. Concerning the 1055 the models show and I have no ideal if the models every show that before but again if true this is also a good sign down the road imo unless these highs really get strong in mid-winter and we end up cold and dry.

That is the -EPO I was talking about in the extended range. If it develops, it'll send a chunk of cold air southward into the Central Plains. Maybe slowly bleeding our way thanks to the SE Ridge of course. Whether or not it is 1055 MB remains to be seen but something fairly strong is believable. It happened back in October with the early season cold / flakes, frosts and freezes. So I'm curious to see. Is this real? Is this our winter pattern from time to time? It would be something if this is the pattern.

[dce]

One thing I have seen on the models the last few runs is a trend to colder weather in the central and eastern US as we approach the middle of November. Who knows if this is the forecasted -EPO taking hold or if this -EPO that is forecasted to occur is just a head fake.

[tron777]

One thing I have seen on the models the last few runs is a trend to colder weather in the central and eastern US as we approach the middle of November. Who knows if this is the forecasted -EPO taking hold or if this -EPO that is forecasted to occur is just a head fake.

If the MJO can get a move on towards Phase 8, then it is believable. A big if in my mins right now, but it's worth watching. As of 10/29 it is still stalled. Aussie / Euro models want to get it into 7 by the end of Week 1 in Nov then it dies. GFS does get it into 8 before dying. We'll see what happens.

[Bgoney]

Weekly Region 3.4 down down to -1.0 . I think we new it would drop as the cold water from region 1.2 makes its trek west.

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The last 4 weeks of anomalies, Interesting , at least to me , notice that the cold anomalies to the west of the dateline have ever so slightly shrunk in size and degree of cold.

Screenshot_20221031-120528_Drive.jpg

[tron777]

On this GFS run (12Z) you can see each front trying to push in to knock the SE Ridge down but nothing is strong enough to do so throughout the entire run. Until I see the MJO do something, today's GFS run has a look that I am expecting for the next 3 weeks or so.

[tpweather]

On this GFS run (12Z) you can see each front trying to push in to knock the SE Ridge down but nothing is strong enough to do so throughout the entire run. Until I see the MJO do something, today's GFS run has a look that I am expecting for the next 3 weeks or so.

I agree Les and yes a cold front can make it through but very short in nature and we just get the glancing blows of colder air. That is okay by me as I would like to have normal to below normal temps in Dec and not Nov.

[tron777]

On this GFS run (12Z) you can see each front trying to push in to knock the SE Ridge down but nothing is strong enough to do so throughout the entire run. Until I see the MJO do something, today's GFS run has a look that I am expecting for the next 3 weeks or so.

I agree Les and yes a cold front can make it through but very short in nature and we just get the glancing blows of colder air. That is okay by me as I would like to have normal to below normal temps in Dec and not Nov.

Ditto. Let the snow and cold build up over the Rockies / N Plains and Canada. Then unleash for December!

[tron777]

12Z Euro has the front coming in late Sat night / Sunday and lingering into Monday morning as well. We certainly continue to have timing issues on the models with this next frontal system as it and the SE ridge do battle.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro has the front coming in late Sat night / Sunday and lingering into Monday morning as well. We certainly continue to have timing issues on the models with this next frontal system as it and the SE ridge do battle.

I believe the tropics are messing with the models as well. This happens more in August and September but we still have some activity and sure the models are having problems because late Oct and early Nov seldom do we see a system somewhat close to the mainland USA. I have noticed how the models are bouncing back and forth and even the CMC had a system coming into the Hilton Head area next week which is not a good thing for golfers. It has back off some keeping moisture off shore for the most part but even the gfs started to hint at this solution. Going to give it several days but I can see a cold front making it through the Ohio Valley but the pattern at this point is to bring back milder air and like you mentioned unless we start to see the mjo make a move through phase 7 not expecting that pattern to change much in the short term. So getting into a more winter like pattern still looks like it is after mid-month but after this week expect better chances for precip as the colder air out west will try and push eastward and this should start a battle between warm and cold and this usually leads to better precip chances.

[tron777]

The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.

[tpweather]

The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.

IF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.

[tron777]

The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.

IF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.

Absolutely. It all looks good on paper Tim, but until I see the MJO responding, I'm sticking with my after Thanksgiving call. I am def proceeding with caution with this.

[tpweather]

The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.

IF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.

Absolutely. It all looks good on paper Tim, but until I see the MJO responding, I'm sticking with my after Thanksgiving call. I am def proceeding with caution with this.

I agree Les but after Thanksgiving is still an early start to winter. Really anything before mid-Dec I considered an early start to the season and lets see what happens to the mjo as I feel better that its in phase 6/7 instead of phase 3/4.

[tron777]

The new CFSV2 run is in and it's forecasting the AO / NAO to turn negative from mid month on. 500 MB pattern looking decent thru mid December as a result with a +PNA and ridging from AK to Greenland over the top. Again, we'll see and I'm watching the MJO too.

IF true Les this would no doubt lead to an early start to winter.

Absolutely. It all looks good on paper Tim, but until I see the MJO responding, I'm sticking with my after Thanksgiving call. I am def proceeding with caution with this.

I agree Les but after Thanksgiving is still an early start to winter. Really anything before mid-Dec I considered an early start to the season and lets see what happens to the mjo as I feel better that its in phase 6/7 instead of phase 3/4.

True lol Well... we've got the GFS / CFSV2 saying maybe Phase 8 then it's dead., Euro / Aussies say 7 and then dead. Then you've got Kyle MacRitchie's experimental MJO which has it dying in early Nov. Re-emerging in Phase 8 after mid Nov. Getting into Phase 1 after that and perhaps 2 before dying again by Thanksgiving. So we've got quite the model spread highlighting the uncertainty here,