Absolute Vorticity

Expecting 3-6 inches of rain in Greenville which seems correct with the current track. Some of the mountains just north of there could see more. Been down there almost 3 1/2 years part time and it seems to never stop raining. The good thing is no extreme heat during that period though the humidity is always there from May-September

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:30 am No doubt this is a very large Hurricane and these tend to move slowly. Not sure it will be a major hurricane when it hits land but the storm surge and large amounts of rain will cause trouble. I can see over 20 inches easily in parts of western Florida before all is said and done. Yes there will be some wind damage especially to mobile homes and other structures but they have a strong building code so most buildings can withstand these winds. Flooding which always causes the most deaths is the main problem.

Completely agree Tim. This system will slow down so 20" amounts are absolutely doable. Flooding and storm surge is going to be the bigger headlines with this system without a doubt.

Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN BATTERING WESTERN CUBA WITH HIGH WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 83.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...240 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Heard about an hour ago on the AccuWeather channel that Ian currently is projected to make landfall just south of Tampa at around midnight (EDT) on Wed.

Ian escaping Cuba as a cat 1 or low end cat 2.(IMO). Sure looks like it will be a further south landfall than currently progged the way its been moving slightly east of due north

11am advisory has it at 115 mph winds, moving N at 10. Pressure up to 963 MB.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:55 am Ian escaping Cuba as a cat 1 or low end cat 2.(IMO). Sure looks like it will be a further south landfall than currently progged the way its been moving slightly east of due north

Yeah the NHC track keeps shifting more east and south....and even now it looks like Ian is even going a bit more east than the latest NHC update. Looks to me like a 2004 Charley repeat landfall (maybe not strength but location).

Ian is back up to 120 with a pressure back down to 955 MB as of 2pm. Movement is to the N at 10 mph.

Looks like the highest populated area around Tampa may be spared the absolute worst, but even on down the coast it's still very populated all the way down to Fort Myers. Not going to be good any way you look at it.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:09 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:55 am Ian escaping Cuba as a cat 1 or low end cat 2.(IMO). Sure looks like it will be a further south landfall than currently progged the way its been moving slightly east of due north

Yeah the NHC track keeps shifting more east and south....and even now it looks like Ian is even going a bit more east than the latest NHC update. Looks to me like a 2004 Charley repeat landfall (maybe not strength but location).

12z EU landfall, I kind of think this is very close to the outcome

Looks to be heading about due north at the moment.

Good Evening and I see a swift in the track from this morning but where does it come onshore. If the Hurricane stays offshore for and extended period then folks can get pounded with rainfall. Still believe Cat 1 or 2 is the most likely strength as the waters are more sallow off the coast but and extended period of surge can really cause problems. These storms seem to hard to predict for models and met's and they have a mind of their own.

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

From Tues ...

1948 7 ENE FORTYMILE BEND MIAMI-DADE FL 2580 8072 RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO BY TDS BY DUAL POL. (MFL)

1958 15 SE MICCOSUKEE INDIAN VILLAGE BROWARD FL 2602 8068 RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO BY TDS BY DUAL POL. (MFL)

2110 1 WSW LOOP ROAD EE CENT MONROE FL 2575 8099 RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO BY TDS BY DUAL POL. (MFL)

2314 UNK 1 N NORTH PERRY AIRPORT BROWARD FL 2602 8024 PATIO TORN OFF A HOME SOUTH OF TAFT AND UNIVERSITY. (MFL)

2318 UNK NORTH PERRY AIRPORT BROWARD FL 2600 8024 SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF OVERTURNED GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT AT NORTH PERRY AIRPORT. (MFL)

2323 2 S COOPER CITY BROWARD FL 2603 8027 RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) CONFIRMS TORNADO. (MFL)

2351 2 SW HOLLYWOOD BROWARD FL 2601 8019 RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) CONFIRMS TORNADO. (MFL)

2351 UNK 2 SW HOLLYWOOD BROWARD FL 2600 8019 TREE DAMAGE IN THE 4600 BLOCK OF JEFFERSON ST. (MFL)

0002 2 E COOPER CITY BROWARD FL 2607 8023 PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO WITNESSED ON THE GROUND ... WITH SUBSEQUENT DAMAGE ALSO WITNESSED. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. (MFL)

0009 UNK 2 SSW PLANTATION BROWARD FL 2610 8026 LARGE TREE DOWN IN THE PUBLIX PLAZA NEAR I-595 AND PINE ISLAND RD. (MFL)

0020 UNK 1 SSW COOPER CITY BROWARD FL 2604 8027 DOWN TREES NEAR NW 97TH AVE AND 39TH STREET. (MFL)

0114 3 WSW DELRAY BEACH PALM BEACH FL 2644 8013 VIDEO FROM THE PUBLIC SHOWS TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR KINGS POINT. (MFL)

0115 3 WSW DELRAY BEACH PALM BEACH FL 2644 8013 MEMBER OF THE MEDIA REPORTED DAMAGE TO CARS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN KINGS POINT. DAMAGE INCLUDES OVERTURNED AND TOPPLED CARS WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AND A LARGE TREE TRUNK UPROOTED. (MFL)

0144 2 NNE LION COUNTRY SAFARI PALM BEACH FL 2673 8035 PUBLIC REPORT OF WITNESSING A TORNADO AS WELL AS NUMEROUS TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND A TREE WITH A 12 INCH TRUNK SNAPPED. (MFL)

0440 13 SE HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MGT AREA BROWARD FL 2628 8061 RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) CONFIRMS TORNADO. (MFL)

1000 BOYNTON BEACH PALM BEACH FL 2653 8009 PUBLIC REPORT AND PHOTOS OF LARGE TREES AND ITEMS DOWNED ... AND SEVERE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE YARD. THIS DAMAGE ... STRONG WINDS ... AND LIGHTNING OCCURRED DURING TORNADO. (MFL)

He really shows up well on satellite and radar now. 120 mph winds as of 8pm. Pressure at 947 MB. Movement: NNE at 10.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west
of the Florida Keys later tonight, and approach the west coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected tonight through
Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as
an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been
reported at the Key West International Airport and the Key West
Naval Air Station during the last hour. A National Data Buoy
Center Site near Sombrero Key recently reported a sustained wind of
43 mph (69 km/h). The Florida Keys Marathon International Airport
just reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

What a storm and a Cat 5 this morning and will hit Florida as a major Hurricane. Sometimes when you get these hurricanes one aspect will be greater in terms of problems. This one has the very high winds,huge storm surge and buckets of rainfall along with a extended period of all three. The latest track even has the remains making it into our area this weekend with some rainfall. No doubt a different tropical season as the number of tropical systems have been low but this one is making up for the lack of numbers.

My bad I had heard it was a Cat 5 but a very strong Cat 4 of 155mph. Either way a very strong storm and one that surprised me as I thought Cat 2 would be the most likely outcome

It's a strong Cat 4 for sure at 155. 156 would make it a Cat 5. It doesn't really matter. This is going to be a massive event for the state of FL. Prayers to those folks impacted by this, but the state is no stranger to hurricanes and they do know how to make it thru.

Model tracks for Ian and his leftovers:

Still at 155 as of 8am moving NNE at 10. Pressure holding at 937 MB.

Aircraft recon had recent extrapolated sfc pressure of 933 mb.

Recon is finding Cat 5 winds of 160 mph. They are going in for another pass now. No idea if NHC will up it or not. We've only had 4 known Cat 5 US hits:

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
Camille 1969
Andrew 1992
Michael 2018

Ian says Good Morning to FL! First Visible shot of the day with the sun now fully up.