September 2022 WX discussion

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to be faster with the low and tropical moisture for Sat. Decent coverage being shown Sat morning and afternoon along and SE of I-71.

[tron777]

The rest of the GFS run is vastly different now passing the front thru on Tuesday and we are dry the rest of the week instead of it hanging around all of next week. I think the tropics are causing the models problems as is usually the case. Medium to long term forecasting is going to be tough for a while as a result. 12Z GEFS does not support this. It keeps the flow out of the Gulf all of next week and beyond. 12Z CMC has POPS from this Sat thru next weekend with the flow remaining out of the Gulf. This solution is a continuation of what we have been seeing. So in short, we can probably toss the 12Z Operational GFS run for today. (Not really a shocker!)

[tron777]

12Z Euro coming in now and it is slow with the arrival of this system. Very little for Sat. Can't rule out an isolated storm across Southern areas near and S of the river. On Sunday, very good coverage is being shown for most people early and really thru most of the afternoon hours. But the good news on this run is it clears out for the evening hours as rain moves out and towards the far Eastern counties so the EBN fireworks would be just fine. On Labor Day, only scattered activity is being shown. So Sunday is our best chance for4 storms on this run for the Holiday time period. After Labor Day, the model has the front over the north Central KY area so the extreme south might catch a storm for Tues but the vast majority of us are dry. We continue to stay dry thru Wed. A 10-20% chance mainly S of Thurs with better chances for everyone again by Friday, The model craziness continues! I'm sticking with the idea that the front lingers and we have daily chances for storms next week... for now anyway.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Cumulous cloud development this afternoon has halted the heating and in some cases has dropped temps. CVG peaked at 83 as of 2pm, but has dropped to 80 as of the 3pm reading as a result. We shouldn't see any rain from it locally in our area but as you can see in the below visible satellite image, perhaps folks well north and east may see a brief pop up shower this afternoon. The Columbus area in our coverage area may have the best shot. Anything that does form up that way will be very isolated and brief at that. We don't quite have enough moisture in the atmosphere yet, but the clouds are a sign of change and things to come as we've previously discussed.

[tron777]

83 at CVG today, 86 here, Not too bad humidity wise with dews in the mid 60s. Dews will be in the U60s tomorrow and U60s to L70s over the weekend and into next week. Unless clouds or rain ruin the party mid to U80s tomorrow and Sat, and only going with the L80s Sunday due to better clouds and rain coverage IMO. Low 80s on avg the rest of next week. Could see an upper 70 degree day if clouds and rain become more widespread. Humid is the operative word for a while though.

[tron777]

Thanks to John Gumm at Local 12 for posting this graphic showing September stats for CVG.

CVGSeptemberStats.jpg

[Bgoney]

Well this stinks. Nothing like an upper level low to ruin a 3 day weekend. Tomorrow morning through the afternoon is looking like numerous scattered showers/t-showers and the rest of the weekend now looks like 60% chances of precip..

[tron777]

Well this stinks. Nothing like an upper level low to ruin a 3 day weekend. Tomorrow morning through the afternoon is looking like numerous scattered showers/t-showers and the rest of the weekend now looks like 60% chances of precip..

Yes Sir! I'm going out to my brother's this weekend to smoke 2 racks of ribs tomorrow and help him with his deck. Some other family is coming in too. UGH... was hoping for at least dry time on Sat so I can cook!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and today should be fine though a little increase in humidity will be felt. The 3 days weekend and will it be a complete washout. The answer is no but no doubt the chances for rain have increased has the week has gone on. This should keep us from getting anywhere close to 90 degrees has there will be to much in the way of cloud cover. Timing for the showers and maybe some thunder at time is highest in the early morning,afternoon and early evening every day. Hopefully not the same problem we had in August where some folks got tons of rain and other just enough to keep the flowers wet. I agree Les models always have problems in later August and September when the tropics try and get going. Next week the Euro is much wetter than the GFS so we will see which model is correct but still going to be a chance about every day with showers in the forecast. No severe weather with this pattern except some heavy rain at times and if a thunderstorm gets strong it can produce some brief stronger winds.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim.... agree with you about not really having to worry about severe wx. A little thunder and an occasional lightning strike can happen, but we're really dealing with a tropical air mass like you'd find down by the Gulf or in the Caribbean when you take a cruise. Humid days and muggy nights. Also agree with your timing each day that you outlined. Out of the Sat - Mon period, I still think Sunday has the highest chances for everyone to get wet and hopefully, it'll clear out in time for the Fireworks Sunday at 9pm! They have never been rained out, but there is always a first time for everything. We'll see as usual!

Also, our thoughts for next week about the front NOT blowing thru and clearing us out after Tues... is correct. We look to have a daily chance for rain everyday next week and potentially even into next weekend as well. Storm chances will be very low some days and higher on other days, but the pattern really doesn't look to change all that much in the coming week to 10 days.

So far, as far as the tropics go, I don't see any system yet impacting the CONUS from the Atlantic basin, but the East Pacific basin may have one of those storms recurve back into the SW US which in time, will only add more moisture to the overall pattern over the country. We are certainly not looking at our normal, dry with pleasant weather September that we usually see. The first week and some change anyway are on and off rains and humid conditions.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les. I forgot to mention the system in the pacific which could add to the moisture and that flow could be headed in this direction because of the elongated trough. I don't mind the rain and higher humidity in early September if and a big if the second half of the month becomes nicer with highs in the low-mid 70's and nights around 50.

[tron777]

Great Post Les. I forgot to mention the system in the pacific which could add to the moisture and that flow could be headed in this direction because of the elongated trough. I don't mind the rain and higher humidity in early September if and a big if the second half of the month becomes nicer with highs in the low-mid 70's and nights around 50.

That is my thought process as we progress thru the month. Thinking as we approach mid month this change to cooler happens. If the tropics are still busy by then, then the timing of the pattern change will certainly be delayed. As usual in long term forecasting it's a wait and see game as you know.

[tpweather]

Heading to SC either Sunday or Monday for about a week though 3 of the grandchildren have covid. Always love when school starts and seems kids get sick the first few weeks. Expecting tons of rain down there so I won't be missing anything in terms of wet weather. They can easily get 2-3 inches with this pattern so that should be fun lol.

[tron777]

Heading to SC either Sunday or Monday for about a week though 3 of the grandchildren have covid. Always love when school starts and seems kids get sick the first few weeks. Expecting tons of rain down there so I won't be missing anything in terms of wet weather. They can easily get 2-3 inches with this pattern so that should be fun lol.

Agreed Tim... you should see more rain then us I would think. Hope the grandkids recover quickly my friend and that it avoids the rest of your family!

[tron777]

12Z NAM has gone bonkers showing 3 1/2"+ of rain Sat - Labor Day at CVG with a wash out of a Sat afternoon and another wash out on Sunday. Def overdone here in my honest opinion but at the same time, the rain chances continue to increase unfortunately.
.

[MVWxObserver]

Heading to SC either Sunday or Monday for about a week though 3 of the grandchildren have covid. Always love when school starts and seems kids get sick the first few weeks. Expecting tons of rain down there so I won't be missing anything in terms of wet weather. They can easily get 2-3 inches with this pattern so that should be fun lol.

Prayers that you, your wife and other family members can stay well, Tim. Keep your distance from the grandchildren and have plenty of Lysol spray / alcohol wipes on hand. Masks aren't full proof but at least add some barrier between affected and unaffected.

My folks and I had Covid last Christmas into part of Jan.

[MVWxObserver]

Via ILN a 30% chance Sat, 50/50% Sun and 40% for Labor Day up my way.

Currently 79 here in G'ville and looking at around 86 for this afternoon.

[tron777]

The 12Z GFS isn't quite as bad with rainfall coverage Sat - Labor Day. best chance still across our S Forecast Area. If this run is correct, there will be more dry time versus wet times. Would love to see this run pan out but not holding my breath.

[tron777]

The rest of the GFS run continues the same pattern next week and really for the foreseeable future. Humid, daily rain chances due to the influence of an upper low that just gets stuck to the west and we get the southerly flow from the Gulf. A little heating and bang. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

[tron777]

We just had the third wettest Aug on record at CVG so if Sept verifies wet as current projections indicate for the next few weeks... what are the Top Ten wettest September's at CVG? Well, here you go.

TopTenWetSept.png

As you can see, we need almost 6" for the month just to crack the the Top Ten list. CVG's avg for Sept is only 3.11" so we'd be almost double the normal amount of rain to get into the Top Ten. Should this pattern persist where we see daily rain chances, then we certainly have a chance at another very wet month. We'll see! Below are the climate normals for Sept at CVG.

CVGSeptNormals.png

[Wxlrnr]

I am so sorry for the cloudy, rainy weather coming up the next couple of weeks. It is all my fault. I just purchased a new telescope that arrived yesterday and it is well known that will cause crappy weather for a while. I don't know why that seems to happen, but many times that seems to be the case according to others on an astronomy website.

[tron777]

12Z Euro coming in and has the best chance for rain on Sat early and again in the afternoon and evening. Seems reasonable to me. For Sunday, virtually a repeat of Sat. Early rain chance, a small break, then better chances in the afternoon. Fingers crossed it clears out in time for the WEBN Fireworks. It should since the sun sets about an hour before that. It could be close! There will be a few dry hours in there during the daytime on both days mind you, but I'd have an indoor back up plan for when it rains just in case if you're having an outdoor party or something. On Labor Day, highest chances are in the afternoon but this model run only shows scattered activity so not as high of a chance as we'll see over the weekend. Total rainfall thru this period at CVG is just a shade of 2.15".

Then for the rest of the model run out to Day 10, it's the usual. Rain chance every day blah blah blah. Again some days will have low chances, others not.

[tron777]

I am so sorry for the cloudy, rainy weather coming up the next couple of weeks. It is all my fault. I just purchased a new telescope that arrived yesterday and it is well known that will cause crappy weather for a while. I don't know why that seems to happen, but many times that seem to be the case according to others on an astronomy website.

I suppose you can compare it to Jason buying that snow blower and killing our snow chances in winter all those years ago!

[tron777]