Absolute Vorticity

Going to mow and grill some cheeseburgers for dinner after work today. It is gorgeous out there this morning!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 6:29 am Good Monday morning to you all! A lovely day in store before tomorrow's action.

If anyone would like to start a thread for tomorrow's possible strong to severe storms, please do so. Maybe you will have better luck then me. Latest SPC Outlook to consider:


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I think this will be like pretty much every potential we get here - morning convection, how long does this last and how much instability is robbed before afternoon storms can get going?

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 6:29 am Good Monday morning to you all! A lovely day in store before tomorrow's action.

If anyone would like to start a thread for tomorrow's possible strong to severe storms, please do so. Maybe you will have better luck then me. Latest SPC Outlook to consider:


day2otlk_0600.gif

Lol, I'm not biting Les.

All this talk about mushrooms, I'm going to pick up some portabella after work and saute them with some melted provolone cheese to go along with my Parmesan Chicken I'm going to make for dinner.

Is there any talk of high winds later tomorrow? That seems to be the repeat with these type of system anymore!

LOL guys! I don't blame anyone for not biting. It's not really thread worthy unless the morning junk gets out faster. Trends have been for that not to be the case so we'll monitor it. We can create a thread on the fly if something evolves.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 12:24 pm All this talk about mushrooms, I'm going to pick up some portabella after work and saute them with some melted provolone cheese to go along with my Parmesan Chicken I'm going to make for dinner.

Is there any talk of high winds later tomorrow? That seems to be the repeat with these type of system anymore!

That sounds awesome Joe! We should post in the cooking thread LOL Man that sounds great!

It has been a windy spring so far, without a doubt. Next system can be windy if we see storms develop but synoptic or system winds shouldn't be terrible. Probably the usual 15 to 25 mph deal. I'm not seeing any wind advisory type stuff. Again unless strong storms develop.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 12:24 pm All this talk about mushrooms, I'm going to pick up some portabella after work and saute them with some melted provolone cheese to go along with my Parmesan Chicken I'm going to make for dinner.

Is there any talk of high winds later tomorrow? That seems to be the repeat with these type of system anymore!

Hey Joe, what time is dinner? lol. Sounds like a great meal

Gonna be a while before any rain happens here let alone t-storms. Any juicy dew is located S of TN and AR. A surface low is getting organized though over the TX Panhandle and the SPC has a moderate risk out now for severe wx over NE OK. Seeing some cirrus blow off on satellite well off to our West. Beautiful dry air here in our local area with those crystal clear cobalt blue skies and light winds as high pressure lingers on for us for one more afternoon. Gulf moisture return looking good for the S Plains north towards Kansas. We shall see tomorrow how things look to better gauge what happens to us, storm wise. Today is a day to get out and enjoy!! We don't see many of these great days. Soon the humidity and heat will be upon us... yuck...

Looks like once again as we get closer to a system the heavier rains are still to the northwest even though this low is further south. Atmosphere is a funny thing and sometimes especially during a La Nina there are areas that are just really dry. Once they set up sometimes very hard to crack. I can use the rain though with the lovely temps no problems with any vegetation.

Lawn is lush and green here as well. Going to raise the blade height up a notch. IMO it's healthier to cut the grass long. Too many people scalp it and you're just inviting weeds and other junk. Anyway... the SPC has updated tomorrow's Outlook with the slight risk.


No changes to the risk hazards: TOR - 2%, Hail 5% and Wind 15%

12Z GFS continues the theme of our next rain maker to come in Thurs night, Friday with a slow moving low and lingering into Sat morning (ending early in the West, later in the East). Let's hope the upper level system doesn't slow down anymore on Sat. Need it to get out for my outdoor plans. More action continuing to show up thru mid month in the longer term.

12Z Euro shows the low taking a lot longer amount of time to leave on Sat. An all day drizzly light rain. Ugh...

Les, the system later this week is interesting as it could produce some severe weather to our south. We may get an extended period of rain if everything falls into place and Saturday could end up sort of on the cool side if we stay cloudy all day. Those 80's that I mentioned may happen next week as we have the weekend system sort of stall near the east coast and another system in the plains so we get stuck in the middle which could provide several days of a south wind and would not be surprised to see the 80's 3 days in a row before the plains system is able to move once we get rid of the traffic jam

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 2:58 pm Les, the system later this week is interesting as it could produce some severe weather to our south. We may get an extended period of rain if everything falls into place and Saturday could end up sort of on the cool side if we stay cloudy all day. Those 80's that I mentioned may happen next week as we have the weekend system sort of stall near the east coast and another system in the plains so we get stuck in the middle which could provide several days of a south wind and would not be surprised to see the 80's 3 days in a row before the plains system is able to move once we get rid of the traffic jam

Yeah it could be a 50s and low 60s type of day for Sat if this thing is slow in pulling out. Then we'll warm up like you said ahead of the next one in the continued pipeline of systems.

An outstanding read from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A persistent stratocu deck has remained locked in for most of
the daytime period thus far for far northern portions of Mercer,
Auglaize, and Hardin Counties in OH. Elsewhere, abundant
sunshine has been the story thus far today, with temps generally
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These clear sky conditions will not
persist for much longer as thickening cirrus will overspread the
OH Vly from the SW through the evening and early nighttime
hours.

Temps will drop off fairly quickly after sunset this evening
before plateauing toward midnight and beyond with the arrival of
thicker cloud cover. Overnight lows will generally be in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

By later in the overnight period, the system which is currently
residing in the south-central plains will migrate into the
western OH Vly. With this will be an increase in LL wind fields
as a ~50kt H8 LLJ noses NE into the local area toward daybreak.
This increase in deeper-layer wind fields will promote large-
scale moisture advection and mass convergence/lift, which will
enhance the development and expansion of a broad shield of
SHRA, with perhaps some embedded TSRA, into the far western ILN
FA during the predawn hours. This will overspread the local area
progressively from 09z-15z before the back edge quickly pulls
further ENE beyond 15z.

This initial WAA-induced wing of convection will be elevated in
nature, with the severe threat holding off until the afternoon.
Rainfall will generally be around a quarter to third of an inch
with this initial band, but a few spots will pick up close to
half of an inch of rain, or more, with this initial round of
pcpn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Once the WWA-induced wing of pcpn pivots NE by late morning,
the focus will quickly turn to LL destabilization efforts,
which will be well underway following the departure of the
shield of pcpn and more widespread cloud cover toward late
morning.

By 16z, expect for a few breaks in the cloud cover to begin to
develop amidst an increasingly mixed BL. This will occur
coincident with strong LL moisture advection NNE into the Tri-
State area around noon, with sfc DPs creeping into the mid 60s
toward 18z for the S/SE two-thirds of the ILN FA, with slightly
drier air further N toward the weak sfc low center.

Expect the weak sfc low center to track from central IL to NW IN
by 18z. The warm front will arc through N IN into NE OH and
further to the SE across western parts of PA. The weak low will
drift E during the heart of the afternoon period, with
aggressive destabilization efforts through the first part of the
afternoon, especially if clouds can clear out quicker in the
16z-19z time frame.

By as early as 16z-17z, expect that CI may already be underway
along the leading edge of a weak sfc trof/convergent axis
positioned from near the Miami Valley SSW into the Tri-State
area and SE IN. This will serve as the primary source for LL
lift, aside from the front itself hanging well back to the W.
With the LL/sfc flow gradually veering from more S to SW
progressively from one side of the sfc trof to another, this
subtle convergent axis will likely provide the earliest focus
for CI, expected in the VC of a corridor near the Miami Valley
to SE IN around 17z.

Without much in the way of early large-scale lift/forcing, there
is concern that any convective development early in the
afternoon could be discrete in nature, with large hail and
damaging winds quickly becoming the primary threats with this
activity as both LL and ML lapse rates steepen simultaneously.
This will occur due to the infiltration of drier air in the
midlevels and more moist air in the LL, offering a favorable
setup for rapid deeper-layer destabilization, with SBCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg in a few spots by 18z. This will occur
coincident with sufficient deeper-layer shear on the order of
~40kts with the H8 LLJ still 35-40kts toward mid afternoon (even
as the as best LLJ peels east by late morning). Along the
leading edge of the sfc trof, sfc winds may become slightly more
backed in nature, suggesting that a tornado threat may
materialize with subtle vertical directional shear and effective
inflow SRH on the order of 200 m2/s2. This would likely maximize
with storms whose inflow layer remains unencumbered by nearby
convection (i.e. more discrete in nature) or if cell mergers are
able to occur. There remain a few questions regarding coverage
of activity, especially without a broader-scale/stronger
lifting mechanism.

What early afternoon convection that is able to form may not
take too long to quickly become strong to severe, especially if
sufficient destabilization can occur in the wake of AM
convection and as the storm clusters drift quickly to the ENE
into parts of south-central and central OH and NE KY by 21z or
so. The initially-discrete cells may grow upscale into clusters
a bit more with eastward progression. This will place parts of
central OH/south-central OH/NE KY more in-line for some strong
to severe activity in the 20z-22z time frame before it pushes
off to the E. Other ISO activity will linger back a bit further
to the W closer to the weak sfc low in WC OH toward 00z and
along the actual front itself, which won`t move into the ILN FA
until about 00z before clearing the local area by 03z. There is
still a severe threat with this activity, but anticipate the
greatest severe threat window to be positioned somewhere in the
time frame from 2 PM to 6 PM with the sfc-trof induced activity
before coming to an end altogether toward 10 PM as the front
moves close to the eastern border of the ILN FA.

Good morning all and what a thundery morning we have! Nothing severe, just a lot of noise and some heavy rain. Back edge looks to be approaching LOU so we'll see how much of a break we can get today to see how intense the next round is later this afternoon and evening. Still a slight risk for everyone. 5% tornado, 5% hail and 15% wind.

Currently, CVG checking in with 0.15" of rain as of this post and around the same for me.

Mesoanalysis this morning reveals a 1004 MB low N of St. Louis tracking slowly NE into ILL and eventually Northern IN later today dragging a a cold front with it. Once the warm front finishes moving thru, the rain will shut off for several hours. Question is how much sun do we get to aide in temps / instability for the storms to work with? We should be fair game after 3-4pm in my opinion.

However, HRRR and NAM models want to pop isolated convection earlier around noon or 1pm then the main line comes thru around 4-5pm give or take so a little earlier. We'll see... timing is everything as always in weather.

From the boys... latest thoughts:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As daytime heating in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
surface low kicks in this afternoon, storms will become stronger
with favorable wind profiles. Lapse rates this afternoon will
increase as an influx of low level moisture persists over the
region ahead of the approaching low.

Generally expecting line segments to evolve later today, but
the favorable wind profile could support some isolated supercell
activity in the southeastern CWA. Damaging winds are the likely
result of the strongest storms, but large hail cannot be ruled
out. If supercells develop, tornadic activity may come into play
in the late afternoon and early evening.

Highs may top 80 degrees in the far southeast over Scioto and
Lewis counties, with mid to upper 70s expected along and
southeast of the I-71 corridor, and lower 70s to the northwest.

Helicity and wind shear look good with this system to support severe wx, but we'll have to see how steep the lapse rates get as well as how much instability. Those two things need some help due to this morning's convection with the approach of the warm front. So that's pretty much the set up today guys that we are monitoring. A highly conditional set up.

Good Morning and nice to see some rainfall and even had a little bit of hail this morning that lasted about 2-3 minutes.Les your forecast is dead on and we just wait to see how unstable we can get today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 7:27 am Good Morning and nice to see some rainfall and even had a little bit of hail this morning that lasted about 2-3 minutes.Les your forecast is dead on and we just wait to see how unstable we can get today.

You saw some small hail this morning? Nice!! Must have had a stronger cell that was elevated thanks to the approaching warm front. Good stuff!

EDIT: I checked freezing levels and they are only at 11,000 feet right now so makes perfect sense!

0.24” and counting here - several rumbles of thunder was nice to hear! Now let’s get all this rain out of the way and see what this afternoon holds.

Visible looks pretty messy right now. Hope to see the clouds break up some more in the warm sector. By eyeballing the visible... I'd say S of I-64 is where the leading edge of the warm sector currently is.

From our friends at LOU:

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

Remnant MCV moved through the region early this morning with the
feature now moving through Ripley/Dearborn counties of southeastern
Indiana. Band of showers with embedded thunderstorms will push
through the Louisville metro area here over the next hour with a
secondary batch of convection clipping the western sections of the
Lexington Metro area. Expect brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds to
20-25 mph, and frequent lightning with this activity.

This activity should move out of the region by mid-morning, however,
we`ll be watching another batch of remnant showers moving in from
southern IL. This activity has been weakening as it moves eastward
and that trend should continue. Mostly cloudy skies are expected
through the morning with gradient winds increasing. Southwest winds
of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph will be possible.

Overall, rest of the forecast remains on track. Main question
continues to be how much cloud cover we`ll see this morning and into
the afternoon hours. Still seeing a bit of spread within the
modeling data with some models keeping clouds in here through much
of the day which would temper insolation. Other models still
attempt to clear things out and allow things to get unstable this
afternoon. In general, still think that showers and storms are good
bet this afternoon. However, overall severity will be contingent on
the amount of instability that develops. We`ll continue to watch
things closely.

0.15" CVG as of 8am.. very light rain still falling. 59 there. I've got 60.