Absolute Vorticity

One thing I have noticed is the SCP (Supercell Composite) numbers on the recent HRRR runs have steadily increased across NKY/SE IN/SW OH in the 7:00 pm timeframe now showing 6-7 whereas earlier runs had only a 2 or 3. STP's have ticked up as well. Something to keep an eye on...

12Z NAM keeps the rain chances going until about 5-6pm then brings in the line around 11pm or so.

3km NAM at 12z similar in an increase in both the SCP/STP values, although a couple hours later than the HRRR. Obviously this is a mesoscale situation depending on any breaks in clouds and any appreciable CAPE. Also noticed 3km NAM is faster in getting the storms here this evening so that too could tick up severe chances.

Getting some moderate rain now...

Good Morning and a nice moderate rain at times this morning. No matter what happens later today wind gusts this evening will be very strong at times and could even be over the threshold of severe without a storm coming through. Will need to watch the satellite images and local reports later today to see how the sky is looking. A very messy look at the moment even to the southwest in Arkansas ,Missouri and Tennessee. What you hate to see is a squall line come through after dark and these can produce some tornado's along the line and much harder to detect after dark. Usually they are not the strong tornado's that you see when one is left by itself but any tornado can cause damage.

Visible shows a nice pocket of clearing over West TN, West KY, extreme SW MO and SE AR. Basically in the mod risk zone. Can we see any of that and if so, how much?

As of 11am, CVG has picked up 0.20" of rain thus far.

66 degrees imby with a dew of 60. 0.31" for rainfall thus far. Currently seeing a break in the rain with a peak or two of sun mixed in. Mainly cloudy overall though. The break will probably be short lived though. We'll see.

TOR watch box out now for MO and ILL:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0121.html

As of 10:05am - from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid-level shortwave will continue to lift northeast through the
Ohio Valley today. Radar trends along with CAMs paint a picture
of off-and-on showers through mid-afternoon due to this
disturbance... and have kept high temperatures a bit lower than
the national blend as a result. In addition, gusty winds will
likely under-perform through the mid-afternoon due to coverage
of showers, so have nudged these down to the 25-30 mph range.

Still appears the highest threat of strong to severe storms in
the ILN forecast area will be beyond the near term term period
as a developing line of showers and storms initiates in an
unstable airmass over southern IL/IN late this afternoon.

The funny thing is.. the opposite is happening. 68 now at CVG, dew of 62.More showers coming but nothing hvy or widespread. Continue to watch radar and visible satellite guys as we progress thru the afternoon.

CAPE wise... 1500 for far West KY. 1000 for Western half of KY. About 500 to the West of I-65 and 250 for us.

The latest HRRR has another round of rain for 3-4pm range then a break. Then the squall line with a possible bowing segment even for us, around 9-11pm window.

MD issued - TOR watch likely to be issued to our SW over West KY, TN, ILL, and SW IN:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0476.html

The one thing I have noticed today is the dew points are not too high even further south. Don't always need a high dew point to get severe weather but with the highest dew point I can find is only in the low 60's this may help suppress storms somewhat. Still believe winds will no doubt pick up later this evening and more rain on the way and just need to watch to see if any severe weather forms south and west of here later today.

I like dews at or above 60 and we're good with low 60 degree dews. It's the showers and clouds or lack of instability that will limit this event for us. It's just going to be a wait and see game. We should know by 5-6pm how much CAPE we've got a chance at seeing. How much clearing, if any... etc etc. Intensity and position of the line to our West, etc.

Some light rain here again, looks like a couple of bands to work thru. Then the back edge is now coming up towards LOU so I'd say that 4-5pm window we should get rain free. Cloud free TBD...

Big rise in temps once the sun comes out in parts of southern ky and northern tn. Bowling Green was 77 last hour and Nashville 84. That is some fuel to work with and how far does that fuel reach before if runs into some trouble. Going to be severe weather in the Ohio Valley but still coming together at this time and exactly when,where and really what form the severe weather is to be determined.

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I think we'll be rain free after 4pm, using CVG as a reference point. Later the further one goes NE. Clearing line will try and work in from the SW over the next few hours. I don't know how much the clouds will thin but any peak of sun we get will help.

Interesting evening ahead. How much energy does the Tn Valley take away from us? Sometimes that can limit what we see in terms of severe weather. Moisture is increasing some here because my hands are starting to swell. Funny how my grandmother had all those body parts that ached and how much they really related to the weather.

Some nasty looking tornado cells in western Tennessee.

Some cells near Mayfield,Ky and those folks do not need any kind of storms as they will be rebuilding for quite some time after the December storms.

Tornado Watch issued for the LOU area until 11pm

Sun is blazing bright now here in Bridgetown