Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 2:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 2:48 pm 12Z Euro is no joke with a large upper low by next Fri and Sat coming thru. Mixed rain and snow showers likely should this solution be correct.

Good thing the Redlegs opening series vs the Braves next weekend will be in Atlanta.

Yeah... this pattern is not conducive for baseball or spring lol We'll see... the Ensembles by Week 2 in April are trying to pull us out of it but I am not yet buying it myself until at least after Easter. Even then it is still a guess this early.

31 at CVG this morning, had 30 here and some frost.

I see no changes to the forecast from now thru next weekend per the 12Z GFS. We remain active with only Sun and maybe Mon being our truly dry days over the next week plus.

Good Sunday afternoon folks! We did not get any rain from that fast moving system that zipped on by to our north last night. A nice afternoon currently with temps in the 50s. A shower is possible tomorrow but the better rain chances look to hold off until Tues afternoon and Wed. Then with the upper low Fri and Sat. Again, a few flakes may mix in at night with that activity.

A few showers are working their way thru the area this morning. The activity is light for the most part and is being caused by a warm front entering the area. This front will lift north this afternoon and take the showers with it. Rain is likely esp by tomorrow afternoon with the next wave working into the area. Then again Wed with a strong cold front. A dry Thurs followed by the upper low Fri and Sat with rain and snow showers both possible by this time. No changes to my forecast for this week. It's been pretty much set in stone over the last several days.

Good morning! Picked up a tenth of an inch of rain this morning. Temp sitting at 43.

As you can see here, you folks down in the Tri-State def could use come rain. Past 30 day QPF anomally...

I personally am not doing that bad here, but anything helps before the summer-time dodge ball season happens (and I usually get missed)! LOL

I don't like being below avg this early, but luckily we aren't that far below avg. If we can get a 1/2" out of the deal this week we'll be in good shape. I'd prefer an inch but beggars can't be choosers.

55 as of 3pm... clouds are keeping temps in check today. We are awaiting the arrival of our next threat for rain which comes tomorrow.

59 now.... the sun saved the forecasted high from busting.

Currently 57 here in G'ville

GO TARHEELS!!

Heavy rain and storms are occurring over TX and OK this evening. For us, light rain over SKY and the MO / TN Valleys is lifting northward towards us for the AM Commute. We need it down my way so hoping to see a 1/2" thru Wed. That would be great!

Currently 46 with a progged low of around 40 for Tues morning here in G'ville.

What an exciting and wild Final Four! Congrats Jayhawks!

Too bad that the state of NC (where I used to reside) had two chances with Duke and UNC and BOTH blew it!

Good morning folks! Some good news and some bad news for the rainfall today... The low is tracking further south and it is not going to head north towards us today. The low should slide across the lower TN Valley through like Alabama. The rain is only going to come so far to the north. I am seeing some light rain here now, thankfully, but I'm not going to get a ton of it either. I-70 folks, you all may even stay dry today or receive very little of this activity.

All areas have a better shot with the strong cold front due in here but the severe threat for our CWA should be nil and remain to our south and east over Central and Eastern KY. We are dry Thursday then snow and rain showers both on Fri and Sat with the upper low slowly moving through.

Then we warm up... 70 or so by Monday and in the 70s for Tues of next week. Next strong front (with possible severe threat depending on timing) by Thurs with a shot of cold air for Good Fri into Easter Weekend. There's your look at the next couple of weeks folks. It's like a broken record lol

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/04/05/stormt ... update-45/

Finally a nice gentle rain which is really needed. If this can keep up all day I'd be thrilled.

0.13" and counting...

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tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 7:17 am I-70 folks, you all may even stay dry today or receive very little of this activity.

Great call here Les! Not a drop so far today IMBY. Temp is 58.

52 here in G'ville and progged for around 60 later this afternoon. ILN has an 80% chance of showers mainly after 5 PM for up this way, so will see whether or not that pans out.

Been a nice light rain here all morning and it is still continuing. Probably will end up in that 0.20 to 0.25" range but with it being so light every bit of it is being absorbed. Get a little more tomorrow with the front, then cool wx and more showers / flakes Fri and Sat before we warm up next week. Expecting Spring to really explode next week once we get some warmth to go with the dampness of this week.

Then we turn cold again towards the end of next week. 12Z GFS has sped up the frontal passage to Wed night now instead of Thurs. The ridge breaks down faster. I'd usually go slower here so we'll see if it corrects back to Thurs or not on future runs.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 7:17 am I-70 folks, you all may even stay dry today or receive very little of this activity.

Great call here Les! Not a drop so far today IMBY. Temp is 58.

I'm stuck at 50. Just be glad this isn't like a month and a half ago.

56 currently - some light rain now beginning to fall.

Today's 12Z GFS is trending towards the Euro solution of a secondary low developing along the front on Good Friday. So we do not turn very cold after the Wed or Thurs frontal passage. Instead a new storm is what we get to deal with for Good Fri into Easter Weekend and then we turn cold. The misery is delayed but not denied so to speak. Not sure yet on severe wx for next week.... timing as usual is key as well as instability.

0.20" at CVG as of 2pm.

I'd also like to mention that for those who have seen some rain today, skies should clear out tonight briefly ahead of our front for tomorrow. As a result, dense fog is possible tomorrow morning for the ride in so just an FYI. I don't know if the fog will be widespread enough or not for ILN to issue a dense fog advisory, but if the area of clearing is large enough tonight, it's possible. WAA and strong southerly flow will mix the fog out by late morning.