Absolute Vorticity

18Z NAM has the first wave coming into view at 84 hours. It is well south of the GFS and a tad south of the Euro even with snow around St. Louis just beginning.

Just noticed the whole area is subject to a decent to significant snowfall. The big thing with this set up is the freeze to the initial slush if Arctic air moves in quick or just oozes in.
So far I like the chances for all to see a few inches, and quite possibly a large area seeing 8-12 +++ from as close as Missouri eastward.
Within 24 hours weather headlines will begin and move East into our hood.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:47 pm 18Z NAM has the first wave coming into view at 84 hours. It is well south of the GFS and a tad south of the Euro even with snow around St. Louis just beginning.

Add the 18Z RGEM to this camp. Also in its fantasy range at 84 hours.

18z GFS coming in a bit colder than 12z. Ice storm zone is further south closer to the metro.

18z GFS Kuchera and total precip

Lots of watching to do with this storm! Very exciting for someone in the Ohio valley! Hopefully the cincy metro!

I hate rain in winter storms. I mean everyone will get it on Wed of course. But for Thurs, that is the question for us. Rain, ice, snow or the kitchen sink? No one wants the ice but it's going to be there for someone on the forum. As will snow and all rain. For AV Country as a whole, this should be a kitchen sink storm system for the OV.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:50 pm I hate rain in winter storms. I mean everyone will get it on Wed of course. But for Thurs, that is the question for us. Rain, ice, snow or the kitchen sink? No one wants the ice but it's going to be there for someone on the forum. As will snow and all rain. For AV Country as a whole, this should be a kitchen sink storm system for the OV.

Pretty much!

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:50 pm I hate rain in winter storms. I mean everyone will get it on Wed of course. But for Thurs, that is the question for us. Rain, ice, snow or the kitchen sink? No one wants the ice but it's going to be there for someone on the forum. As will snow and all rain. For AV Country as a whole, this should be a kitchen sink storm system for the OV.

Pretty much!

You should rename this to the Kitchen Sink Storm thread.

Well I look to be buried where I am living. At least as of now, I should be in the snow

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:02 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:50 pm I hate rain in winter storms. I mean everyone will get it on Wed of course. But for Thurs, that is the question for us. Rain, ice, snow or the kitchen sink? No one wants the ice but it's going to be there for someone on the forum. As will snow and all rain. For AV Country as a whole, this should be a kitchen sink storm system for the OV.

Pretty much!

You should rename this to the Kitchen Sink Storm thread.

done!

I love it, Trev!

QPF with this storm is not the problem. 1-3" of QPF easy depending on location. Where the frontal zone sets up for the second low to ride along and how quickly does the cold undercut the warmth on the cold side of the front with the arctic high pressing in from the N Plains. These are all of the moving pieces we have to work with. Going to be tough to make a forecast for the next couple of days still.

Off hour Euro runs only go out to 90 hours but I peaked at the 18Z Euro. It is south of 12Z. 1045 MB high over S Canada versus it positioned further to the north on 12Z. A cold rain begins Wed morning when the model stops. Rain / Snow line back to St. Louis with the first wave. 12Z run it was NW of town near St. Charles. They changeover to snow 4-6 hours faster as a result.

Worried more about ice here on Thursday. I-70 always seems to be the rain/ice and snow line lately.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:57 pm Worried more about ice here on Thursday. I-70 always seems to be the rain/ice and snow line lately.

The river always seems to be another good dividing line too lol

Pretty neat graphic

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:48 pm Pretty neat graphic

Can’t even imagine what 76” in one day would be like! Wow.

To Add to Pete's post... the listing of each state with location to go along with the 24 hour total:

https://weatherstreet.com/weatherquesti ... _state.htm

I am very concerned in my neck of the woods. Being south of the metro, I hope we are north enough for snow or south enough for plain rain. It will become clear in a few days.

The PV and it's influence is going to suppress this system to the south like the Euro and EPS are thinking or more NW with less of a PV influence like the GFS / GEFS. CMC is in the middle. So that's kind of where we stand tonight.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:56 pm To Add to Pete's post... the listing of each state with location to go along with the 24 hour total:

https://weatherstreet.com/weatherquesti ... _state.htm

Thanks for that, Les. Great chart that adds location and date.

The one I’m sure we all remember vividly was Indiana’s record ..... December 23, 2004. That was an epic storm!!

Lake Cutter methinks

I hope that 00z GFS is wrong. > 1inch of ice would be no bueno.

Gfs gives us a very bad ice storm