Absolute Vorticity

14 so far here

21 IMBY

I have 16 here, dew of 9. Overnight AFD from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
H5 energy to pivot thru the Ohio Valley with induced surface low
ejecting northeast from the Gulf states through the eastern TN
Valley today. Northern periphery of snow band to develop across
northern KY and Southern Ohio this aftn into evening. Best
frontogenesis and lift aligns with dendritic growth zone this
afternoon over northeast KY and South central Ohio. This favored
time for lift is centered on 20Z.

Deterministic and ensemble solutions have trended a little
higher with snow amounts over this location. Have increased
snow amounts with a storm total of 4 inches over southern Lewis
and southern Scioto counties. Have upgraded these counties to a
winter storm warning. Also, have added Pike county to the
winter weather advisory with 1 to 2 inches possible.

Cold temperatures with highs from the lower 20s northwest to
the upper 20s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Mid level shortwave and associated surface low pressure is
progressive with snow coming to an end early this evening.
Northwest flow with CAA overnight and low temperatures ranging
from the single digits in the west to the mid teens east.
Overnight to morning wind chill values will be in the negative
single digits across locations generally near and northwest of
Interstate 71.

Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure becoming
centered over the area Friday afternoon. Dry airmass with good
sunshine but cold temperatures Friday. Expect highs in the lower
and middle 20s.

BG did a Snow Talk at 2 am this morning

https://fb.watch/amAH81udd1/

MD issued for heavy snow this morning over TN and SKY closer to the main low track.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0036.html

Radar looks nice to the south and west. We'll see how far north the snow can make it before the dry air wins out entirely. That is our story today to go along with the cold temps.

Looking at latest model runs I feel like north of the river and west of 71 really may not even see a flake but, it does all depend on where the dry air stops eating away.

I was surprised to see a few flurries this morning when unlocking our gates at the Arboretum. Especially at 16 with a dew of 9!

nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:36 am I was surprised to see a few flurries this morning when unlocking our gates at the Arboretum. Especially at 16 with a dew of 9!

A few flakes wouldn't surprise me this morning. Glad you saw something in case we don't see anything later.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:38 am

nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:36 am I was surprised to see a few flurries this morning when unlocking our gates at the Arboretum. Especially at 16 with a dew of 9!

A few flakes wouldn't surprise me this morning. Glad you saw something in case we don't see anything later.

Hahaha! UGH don't say that!

nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:38 am

nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:36 am I was surprised to see a few flurries this morning when unlocking our gates at the Arboretum. Especially at 16 with a dew of 9!

A few flakes wouldn't surprise me this morning. Glad you saw something in case we don't see anything later.

Hahaha! UGH don't say that!

I hope the snow shield is much further northwest then modeled ! After all, all models have different opinions lol!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:53 am

nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:38 am

nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:36 am I was surprised to see a few flurries this morning when unlocking our gates at the Arboretum. Especially at 16 with a dew of 9!

A few flakes wouldn't surprise me this morning. Glad you saw something in case we don't see anything later.

Hahaha! UGH don't say that!

I hope the snow shield is much further northwest then modeled ! After all, all models have different opinions lol!

Yeah. I'm not really looking at too much data for today now. It's on the map already and we'll see how that low tracks and how much snow we can get in here. Not much else to do but watch and wait.

As of 8am, light snow being reported in Paducah and Hendersonville, KY. Flurries in Owensboro. Not seeing anything reported over IN yet.

MD issued for heavy snow moving in from TN into Central KY in the next few hours. MD is for folks mainly S of I-64. Probably down around the Bluegrass and Western KY Parkways.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0037.html

Regular Snow Talk

https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/06/snowta ... update-16/

1012 MB low has formed now in South Central MS. It should track NE across AL, N GA and into NE TN as things progress through this afternoon and evening.

CB's website has taken a hit.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:41 am CB's website has taken a hit.

It's been painfully slow if not down for the last few days. CB's been trying to get it upgraded and / or fixed. Too much traffic for his web server due to this system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:46 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:41 am CB's website has taken a hit.

It's been painfully slow if not down for the last few days. CB's been trying to get it upgraded and / or fixed. Too much traffic for his web server due to this system.

I'm assuming that is a personal site unrelated to the station.

Radar easily showing how the metro on north is probably going to get the shaft or very little on this one. But as of a couple of days ago or so, we knew that was going to be the case. Matt... we are going to live through you on this one.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:46 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:41 am CB's website has taken a hit.

It's been painfully slow if not down for the last few days. CB's been trying to get it upgraded and / or fixed. Too much traffic for his web server due to this system.

I'm assuming that is a personal site unrelated to the station.

Per a few tweets I've seen over the past few days, I would assume that too.

Mid morning update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made only minor adjustments to snowfall accumulations, however
did increase precipitation chances across southern portions of
the region in advisory and warning locations. Temperatures will
not rise much today with high temperatures only expected to
generally be in the 20s. As the southern system begins to pivot
to the east, there will be the potential for some lake effect
snow across far northwestern portions of the region. At this
point, just have snow flurries in the forecast, however will
continue to monitor to see if additional snow will have to be
added into locations northwest of Dayton.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:53 am Radar easily showing how the metro on north is probably going to get the shaft or very little on this one. But as of a couple of days ago or so, we knew that was going to be the case. Matt... we are going to live through you on this one.

I'm too much on edge for the bust potential to be honest. That Northern cutoff is too scary.

I'm in Sidney today. I'm a little surprised to see very light flakes flying up here considering the dry air.