Absolute Vorticity

I am in Somerville in Butler Co and my front porch is icing up and it is 33 degrees.

Ha ha looks like the AMP NAM model was correct here. 1.15” total!

0.67" here 0.70" at CVG. A bit more then I had forecasted but the NAM was still overdone for here. 43 currently here with the 20s and 30s across ILL and Central In headed our way this afternoon after the front passes this morning.

Good morning all and Happy Sunday to you. A good day to watch Week 18 NFL action for sure. So what's coming up down the road? A break in the action to begin with. Cold Mon and Tues with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s to perhaps 30 S of the River. 40s for highs Wed - Fri then model diverge with regards to precip type and timing of our next system.

A lot of the guidance brings in a cold front and low pressure area thru the OV and Lakes Sat with rain, changing to snow on the backside on Sunday. That would be in the form of snow showers and areas of light snow. The low then transfers its energy to an East Coast low after that. Euro, CMC, GEFS show this. OP GFS does not phase the two jets for a stronger frontal zone and the low is well off the East Coast and goes out to sea. Much too progressive as usual for the GFS this far out. So we'll see, but that's the current trends for that one.

Looking out further ahead... very cold, dynamic pattern with a lot of energy running around. Trends are for something brewing around the 20th for us and the East Coast. Bitterly cold air behind it and something else to watch out for maybe around the 24-25th too (either us or East Coast). So much to keep an eye on down the road despite the 4-5 day precip free break coming up. Just note that timing will change on these systems as well as the ideas when we get closer. Just posting the current looks that we're seeing in the data.

The above is the SOI that I posted yesterday. It continues to drop. -27.74 today. Would like to see that continue. It would keep this "El Nino look" going with the +PNA longer I think. We'll see... as long as the forcing stays out of the India Ocean we'll be fine. Models want to get the MJO back towards the maritime continent again. We'll see though, because that is way, way out there and Ensembles thru Day 16 currently show no signs of this pattern going away yet. This is all way way extended range stuff, I like our pattern continuing as a whole for the next 2-3 weeks. So much stuff to watch. Several opportunities coming...

getting ice here, not a good day. temp is only 28 yet

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:36 am getting ice here, not a good day. temp is only 28 yet

Not your classic CAD set up but a weak one going on keeping the shallow cold air in place a little longer then surrounding areas. Tons of WAA aloft though. 850s over Eastern PA are like at +4 or +5C

Picked up .71” of rain here. 44 degrees now but expect it to be dropping soon.

950s low lurking off the East Coast next weekend, OH MY!!

So far just a tad over an inch here. Currently 44…
Our windmill is spinning faster than it was earlier. Time to get the fireplace going.

12Z OP GFS today is pretty boring for the next week to ten days. It looks completely different at 500 MB too vs last run. I'm thinking snow and rain both possible next weekend. Don't know about a transfer to an East Coast low idea or not, but I think we'll see a more robust system vs the cold front and unphased GFS solution. GEFS even shows a stronger system next weekend.

Have brought my rain gauge into the garage for storage for the winter as of a couple or so weeks ago.

The Northeast getting a big icer today.

My nephew, his fiancee / her family, and friends of theirs got between 5 to 6 inches of white gold this past Thurs in Nashville.

Currently 34 here in G'ville.

A lot of folks are starting to complain on social media about models not showing a lot of storminess or nothing huge for their own back yards. With split flow and a tremendous amount of cold air at our disposal, sometimes, a big storm may pop up out of nowhere with not a lot of lead time. We don't yet know when the jet streams will phase or exactly what areas will impacted if they do. I still like next weekend Jan 15-16th for a system with rain and snow possible. I'm also watching the 19th-20th then again Jan 23-25th time periods.

In my personal opinion, the upcoming pattern is more of a weak El Nino type of pattern then what you'd expect in a La Nina. +PNA -EPO hints of -AO and -NAO maybe briefly. An active STJ I think is very important to get those big moisture laden systems. Gulf Low development is going up with this pattern and seeing models hinting at it from time to time. That can favor the East Coast but if the phasing happens soon enough, us too. Just a lot of uncertainty. It's got potential though which as I keep saying, is all we can ask for.

I hit 45 before the front passed. 41 now with NW winds as the temp drop begins.

Hi temp here was around 10:30 at 43 - now down to 37 and falling.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:37 pm In my personal opinion, the upcoming pattern is more of a weak El Nino type of pattern then what you'd expect in a La Nina. +PNA -EPO hints of -AO and -NAO maybe briefly. An active STJ I think is very important to get those big moisture laden systems. Gulf Low development is going up with this pattern and seeing models hinting at it from time to time. That can favor the East Coast but if the phasing happens soon enough, us too. Just a lot of uncertainty. It's got potential though which as I keep saying, is all we can ask for.

It all goes.back to your SOI post, it's no coincidence that we see a drop and then the models follow suit with the El Ninoesque tellies. It's going to take all this week for those changes to take hold and happen though , ie a full blown +PNA/-EPO combo, (large and to go, please) so patience is still required

Would love for the 12Z Euro to be right. Light snow Fri night and Sat due to a warm front coming up to almost NKY, and stalling. Weak low rides thru the Gulf Coast states. Sometimes you've got to smell the rain to see the snow as they say. Too bad it is Day 6-7.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:37 pm In my personal opinion, the upcoming pattern is more of a weak El Nino type of pattern then what you'd expect in a La Nina. +PNA -EPO hints of -AO and -NAO maybe briefly. An active STJ I think is very important to get those big moisture laden systems. Gulf Low development is going up with this pattern and seeing models hinting at it from time to time. That can favor the East Coast but if the phasing happens soon enough, us too. Just a lot of uncertainty. It's got potential though which as I keep saying, is all we can ask for.

It all goes.back to your SOI post, it's no coincidence that we see a drop and then the models follow suit with the El Ninoesque tellies. It's going to take all this week for those changes to take hold and happen though , ie a full blown +PNA/-EPO combo, (large and to go, please) so patience is still required

Yep, it's going to take about another week to materialize and mature so more changes are def yet to come.

Need that ocean low to get out of the way on the Euro. Nice baroclinic boundary dropping into S Texas NE right up into the OV. Low in the Gulf. Looks like that Ocean Low may get out of the way in time for the Gulf Low to work NE and bring us some snow. Pattern looks really interesting on this run for the 18th and 19th.

The streams don't phase but look at all of the lows lol Energy is all over the place so look for continued changes the next few days.

EU looks like its ready to unleash winter mayhem starting next weekend , showing so much potential east of Mississippi.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:18 pm EU looks like its ready to unleash winter mayhem starting next weekend , showing so much potential east of Mississippi.

No doubt... Would love to see this gain more support in the coming days. GEFS GEPS wasn't half bad either. Def looking better then the OP GFS, the rest of the guidance for snow lovers.

EU/GFS really arent that far apart IMO , after calculating their all to familiar biases at day 6/7. Think back to our rescent winter event 6/7 days prior .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:23 pm EU/GFS really arent that far apart IMO , after calculating their all to familiar biases at day 6/7. Think back to our rescent winter event 6/7 days prior .

The main difference I see is jet stream amplification. GFS is a little further east with the PNA ridge, Euro a bit further West. Shortwave can dig more on the Euro and tug the cold air south. GFS is more of an open wave and progressive. In the grand scheme of things, no, they aren't awfully different. It is funny though how those small differences usually promote big differences in terms of our sensible weather.