Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Aug 27, 2023 4:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:34 pm TD 10 E is now TS Irwin with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 12.

So there's now 2 I-named storms, Irwin and Idalia.

Yes sir! Beware the I storm. Idalia in this case. Irwin should peter out in a few days as it moves over colder waters.

Irwin has winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 8. This one will weaken into a depression in the next 12 to 24 hours and be gone not too long after that.

Irwin is barely holding on as a TS and will soon weaken into a TD and eventually dissipate altogether. Nothing else is going on in the East Pac at this time.

We now have a southern low rider wave off the Central American Coast that has an 80% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days.

The wave off the Central American Coast now has a 90% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days.

Say hello to TS Jova:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.s ... t#contents

Jova is now a Cat 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph. It is moving WNW at 13 mph. Jova will become a major hurricane soon then weaken as it encounters cooler waters.

Jova continues to weaken down to 100 mph now and won't bother anyone.

Jova is dying rapidly. Winds of 65 mph and will be gone early next week.

There is a tropical wave well south and west of the Baja that has a 70% chance to develop in the next 5 days. No impacts to land are expected.

A tropical wave off the Mexican Coast has an 80% chance in the next 5 days.

We now have TS Kenneth with winds of 45 mph moving W at 10. This one will turn more to the NW then weaken as it encounters cooler waters. This storm will remain a TS then weaken into a depression.

TS Kenneth has winds of 50 mph moving NW at 9. We can say good bye to this one by the weekend. A couple more waves out there have a 30% and 40% chance respectively.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 120.4W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

This one is excepted to become a TS but not bother a soul as it moves to the West away from land.

TD 14 E is moving to the west at 14 mph. A weak TS is likely with this system but it won't bother any land masses.

There is a wave well off the Mexican Coast moving to the NW that is expected to become a depression next week. Currently it has an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

We now have TS Lidia with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 9 mph. This system is expected to become a hurricane by this weekend and slowly turn more to the West by then.

Lidia is expected to become a hurricane shortly then move NE into Mexico and weaken. Some of its leftover moisture may get into the Gulf and spread some moisture into the Southern US. TS Max has a short lifespan also moving NE and will run into Mexico shortly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:55 pm Lidia is expected to become a hurricane shortly then move NE into Mexico and weaken. Some of its leftover moisture may get into the Gulf and spread some moisture into the Southern US. TS Max has a short lifespan also moving NE and will run into Mexico shortly.

Lydia hit CAT 4 for a brief moment but tons of rainfall to parts of Mexico. No doubt it loses strength crossing the mountains of central Mexico but intact enough to bring decent rains to the lower gulf area and Florida. Good thing is the speed of the system is fast so not sitting in one spot for days. They can use the rain down there so this system will help.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:55 pm Lidia is expected to become a hurricane shortly then move NE into Mexico and weaken. Some of its leftover moisture may get into the Gulf and spread some moisture into the Southern US. TS Max has a short lifespan also moving NE and will run into Mexico shortly.

Lydia hit CAT 4 for a brief moment but tons of rainfall to parts of Mexico. No doubt it loses strength crossing the mountains of central Mexico but intact enough to bring decent rains to the lower gulf area and Florida. Good thing is the speed of the system is fast so not sitting in one spot for days. They can use the rain down there so this system will help.

No doubt Tim! Mexico and Texas baked for months over this past summer.

We have 2 waves off of Mexico. One is almost ready to develop and the second has a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

Norma is a hurricane with winds of 80 mph moving N at 7. This one should become a Cat 3 before weakening and hitting Mexico. Moisture from Norma may also get pulled into the CONUS as well.

Norma is approaching the Baja Penn today with winds of 110 mph. She will move north into Mexico and weaken while some of the leftover moisture will get pulled north into the CONUS with the next developing trough.

The next wave off the coast has an 80% chance to develop over the next 3-5 days.

TS Norma has winds of 60 mph moving NNE at 7 in the Gulf of ?California. It will continue weakening and move into the Mexican mainland in the coming days with some of its moisture working its way into the developing storm for the Central US in the coming days.

The next wave off the coast has an 80% chance to develop.

TS Otis with winds of 65 mph is moving NNW at 8 mph. This system is expected to run into Mexico and then weaken.