Absolute Vorticity

Down to 6-10 hrs for Henri to intensify if at all before it leaves the Gulf stream and enters the cooler waters nearer the coast

Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING FASTER...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

Henri has not yet slowed down. Continues to get faster - 18 mph with winds of 75 as of 5pm

Recon reports indicate Henri has weakened to a TS with maybe 65 mph wind. FL winds are not translating to the surface well due to the cooler water. Still a significant impact, but winds may be only 60-65 mph over a small area at landfall.

Stalled band of rain overnight from NYC to about Philly laid down 4-6+ over concrete jungle areas with numerous flash flooding

NHC downgraded to TC , winds weren't ever going to be the problem as is usually the case with NE tropical systems. Henri's Storm surge probably brings moderate problems but the biggie is Flash flooding over metro areas

70 mph winds right now moving WNW at 16. Going to be a bad next couple of days in New England. Agree... flash flooding is the biggest hazard with this system for sure.

As of 10 am , highest OFFICIAL suface winds so far, NY and Conn

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
954 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location Speed Time/Date Provider

...Connecticut...

...New London County...
USCG Academy 49 MPH 0833 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Groton Airport 39 MPH 0837 AM 08/22 ASOS

...New York...

...Suffolk County...
Baiting Hollow 50 MPH 0850 AM 08/22 CWOP
Napeague 48 MPH 0849 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Shinnecock 42 MPH 0859 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Great Gull Island 46 MPH 0841 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Orient Point 38 MPH 0805 AM 08/22 CWOP
Mecox Bay 38 MPH 0811 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Southold 37 MPH 0817 AM 08/22 CWOP
Westhampton Airport 37 MPH 0836 AM 08/22 ASOS
Stony Brook 37 MPH 0838 AM 08/22 CWOP
Montauk Airport 36 MPH 0800 AM 08/22 ASOS
Shirley Airport 36 MPH 0849 AM 08/22 ASOS
Southold 36 MPH 0905 AM 08/22 NYSM
East Hampton 35 MPH 0855 AM 08/22 AWOS
Orient 35 MPH 0901 AM 08/22 CWOP

Most sustained winds in the 45-55 range with an isolated gust right on the coast near 65


Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1000 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph
(101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode
Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and
a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h), while a station at Great Gull Island
near the eastern end of Long Island, New York, measured a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The NOAA
C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a
sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).

For Sun via Henri ...

1231 58 BLOCK ISLAND JETTY WASHINGTON RI 4119 7159 (BOX)

1952 UNK WESTFIELD HAMPDEN MA 4214 7276 TREE AND UTILITY POLE DOWN ON WEST ROAD (BOX)

For Mon ...

1545 3 SW MARLBOROUGH MIDDLESEX MA 4233 7159 SPOTTER WAS WATCHING TORNADO AT THE TIME OF THE CALL. (BOX)

1550 MARLBOROUGH MIDDLESEX MA 4235 7155 LARGE LIMB DOWN ON VEHICLE ON CEDAR HILL STREET. (BOX)

1630 2 E BOLTON WORCESTER MA 4244 7156 NWS NORTON SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF0 TORNADO BETWEEN 175 AND 198 MAIN ST IN BOLTON. THIS CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE CONSISTING OF TREES KNOCKED DOWN INTO POWERLINE WIRES. (BOX)

1710 STOW MIDDLESEX MA 4243 7150 NWS NORTON SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF0 TORNADO IN STOW AT 110 PM. THIS TORNADO CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE ON STATE HIGHWAY 117 NEAR THE STOW POLICE DEPARTMENT. (BOX)

Not seeing any reports of damaging storm surge due to lower than forecast winds . 40 -50 mph winds will not create significant storm surge.

----

TD Henri is north of NYC at this point causing flooding rainfall over the region. Otherwise, just a couple of tropical waves that are being watched. Nothing looks organized at this time.

3 waves now - all a 40% chance. E. Caribbean Sea, E. ATL, Off the African Coast, Active times ahead...

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:34 pm 3 waves now - all a 40% chance. E. Caribbean Sea, E. ATL, Off the African Coast, Active times ahead...

Good Morning Les. What makes this even more interesting is a strong push of Saharan dust moving off Africa and moving west over the Atlantic. Yes we see this every summer but usually by this point in time that as ended.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 24, 2021 7:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:34 pm 3 waves now - all a 40% chance. E. Caribbean Sea, E. ATL, Off the African Coast, Active times ahead...

Good Morning Les. What makes this even more interesting is a strong push of Saharan dust moving off Africa and moving west over the Atlantic. Yes we see this every summer but usually by this point in time that as ended.

I did not know that was going on, so thanks Tim for that nugget of info. Might explain why the last few waves on satellite appear a bit further south then usual. I assume they are south of the dust cloud? Asking, since I have not looked at a SAL image at all.

2pm update:

Wave 1 has a 70% chance. Wave 2 60%. The third wave has a 40% chance.

70 / 70 / 30 are the three waves chances as of this morning for future development.

Looking good for a Texas to Louisiana coast hit and a good chance leftovers funnel up into our area

The first wave for sure is the one we are seeing on models. An 80% chance now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:36 am 70 / 70 / 30 are the three waves chances as of this morning for future development.

Trio now at 40 / 30 / 20 chances.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:36 am 70 / 70 / 30 are the three waves chances as of this morning for future development.

Trio now at 40 / 30 / 20 chances.

I should have clarified this in my posting. I am using the percentages for development over the next 5 days and you are using the numbers over the next 48 hours. In case anyone was confused as to why we posted different numbers.

There goes gas prices

12z GFS actually a few millibars deeper and a bit more west. Yeah gas up!