Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all! Big time winds today folks and it's already happening. Gusts up to 40 mph can be expected. Rain moves in later with the heaviest tonight ending tomorrow. A rumble of thunder is also possible, but no severe wx is expected. Still expecting up to an inch. then we get more showers Sun with steadier rains on Monday of next week. Cooler temps too in the 40s and 50s. Not much has changed with the ongoing forecast at this time.

10z Hi-Res Precip totals for today through 11pm. Still raining from I-71 south at this time so add more to these areas.

I Just had a shower move thru here already... a pavement dampener. A trace in other words lol

BG Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2021/03/11/goode- ... ther-blog/

Decent line of thunderstorms now moving across southern Illinois heading for southwestern Indiana within the next hour or two.

I suspect the pre-frontal activity will destroy the intensity of that line long before it gets here.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:39 am I suspect the pre-frontal activity will destroy the intensity of that line long before it gets here.

Yeah the lightning count already dropping. Was never really expecting anything severe here, would just be nice to hear some thunder!

Been seeing a few peaks of sun here... up to 65 degrees. I am wondering if that line can survive? It will depend on the prefrontal activity as Aaron mentioned. Models are mixed on the idea as we saw on BG's blog video. Some weaken it and the heavy stuff comes in this evening. Other model data does not and we get hit with heavy rain, gusty winds, and thunder this afternoon instead. A wait and see game.

12Z GFS coming in with 0.77" at CVG thru tomorrow morning. The 12Z NAM shows 1.08".

Did I just hear thunder?

Angelika wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:30 pm Did I just hear thunder?

I did! First of our young spring season. :grin:

Nice downpour too...

Now the sun is back out while we await the next round to move in. A pretty changeable weather day around here! 12Z Euro spitting out 0.83" at CVG thru tomorrow morning.

Euro and other models too... in addition to a few showers Sunday, steadier rainfall on Monday.... now more rain looks to be expected on Tues as well. Quite the active pattern folks.

Had a little rain roam through here too. Didn't hear any thunder but picked up 0.07". Interesting weather day for sure.

Picked up 0.17" with that first batch that went through....didn't really hear any thunder.

MD to our southwest....no watch is expected.

Mesoscale Discussion 0154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Missouri...southern
Illinois...southern Indiana and adjacent portions of western
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111926Z - 112200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm activity may continue to develop, with
some further intensification possible through 3-5 PM CST. Some of
these storms may be accompanied by hail and strong surface gusts
which could occasionally approach or exceed severe limits. The need
for a watch is not currently anticipated, but trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development appears to be gradually
increasing near the immediate vicinity of the slowly southward
advancing surface front, south of the Interstate 44/64 corridors of
southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois. This appears to be
aided by inflow of air from a weak destabilizing boundary layer
(CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg) into a zone of weak lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection.

This is occurring in the wake of the significant short wave trough
accelerating east-northeastward through the lower Great Lakes/upper
Ohio Valley vicinity, where general rising mid-level heights may
tend to suppress convective development late this afternoon.
However, it is possible that the ongoing activity is being supported
by a subtle perturbation/mid-level speed maximum within 40-50 kt
west-southwesterly deep layer mean flow.

Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, isolated supercell
structures could evolve within occasionally intensifying stronger
convection through the mid to late afternoon. It appears that this
could be accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail, and
melting hail/evaporative cooling in downdrafts may contribute to
downward mixing of higher momentum to the surface. With
southwesterly flow around 850 mb a somewhat modest 30-40 kt, and
low-level lapse rates relatively weak, peak surface gusts may mostly
remain below severe limits.

0.08" is what I got from that earlier activity. CVG got 0.19".

Seeing batch #2 come across southern IL and Indiana at the moment. Most folks should get a decent amount of rain with this.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 3:19 pm Seeing batch #2 come across southern IL and Indiana at the moment. Most folks should get a decent amount of rain with this.

Agreed Mike. Up to an inch I think is possible with this activity. Most folks should get that into that 1/2" to 1" range by the time all is said and done.

Batch #2 has started here

It'll start here in the next 30-45 mins. It's closing in! Looks like a wet evening and night ahead as we've expected.

SPC has a marginal risk out for strong winds out for tonight.

First thunder of the year here a couple min ago!!

Light rain has started up again here. The heavier stuff is getting closer! 65 for my high today. CVG topped out at 66.