Absolute Vorticity

Winds should stay up tonight so the frost threat should be minimal if not zero. Mon night and Tues night have small chances before we are safely in the 40s for the rest of the week. For highs... mainly the 60s with 70 finally returning towards the end of the week. We have time to dry out now with the next chance of rain not coming in until sometime next weekend.

Picked up another quarter of an inch, for a total of .75 inches.

I got down to 37 this morning. No frost thankfully. We'll see the same type of lows tonight and tomorrow night (cloud and wind dependent) before that threat is over until Fall. I hope LOL Then for highs... we'll avg in that 60 to 65 degree range for a while until 70ish shows back up towards the end of the week. Glad we have a chance to dry out even though it is cool.

34 here but I don’t see any frost

In the extended range... the Euro suite of models wants to warm us up nicely to well above avg levels say after the 20th or so (like sometime next week in other words) and the GFS family of models warms us up, just near to slightly above avg temps. We'll have to wait and see how warm we get and a lot of that will have to do with how much rain and t-storm activity we receive. GFS looks more active then the Euro so there is your major difference.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/10/goode- ... ther-blog/

Good Morning and I did see some frost but it was in my neighbors yard and he just mowed Saturday. Getting a moist ground helps promote frost as we see in the fall we can have several days below 32 but if its been dry frost has a hard time to form. Last night mid 30's and frost formed and was helped by the wet conditions. Looks like Tuesday morning there may be some frost and a lower chance on Wednesday and hopefully we are done for the season.

Good morning Tim! For tonight... clouds may save us but tomorrow night / Wed morning if skies can stay clear long enough, I could see one more shot before it's over with until Fall.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 10:06 am Good morning Tim! For tonight... clouds may save us but tomorrow night / Wed morning if skies can stay clear long enough, I could see one more shot before it's over with until Fall.

Ha Ha - was just going to post this thinking for tonight. Tomorrow night I agree should be our last threat of the season.

Hey Mike! Clouds with this next weak system passing thru should keep us near or above 40 tonight. That is kind of my thinking there but if the skies can stay clear long enough Tues night into Wed morning, a low in the mid 30s even for CVG is entirely possible. Hoping for the upper 30s to dodge one last bullet.

12Z Euro keeps us dry thru Sat then spotty chances Sat night, Sun and into early next week.

I can't imagine us not breaking a record by the end of the week . CVG not expected to reach 70 until the weekend, which then would give us 10/11 straight days of not reaching 70 in MAY, let alone the MIDDLE OF MAY. I reckon Dayton and maybe Cbus are in the same boat

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 2:55 pm I can't imagine us not breaking a record by the end of the week . CVG not expected to reach 70 until the weekend, which then would give us 10/11 straight days of not reaching 70 in MAY, let alone the MIDDLE OF MAY. I reckon Dayton and maybe Cbus are in the same boat

If we have any folks who use Twitter, that would be a great question to tweet to the NWS ILN to see what the record actually is. Where in the heck is Jason?

Here is how May has been thus far in the temp dept - waaaay below normal as we all know. LOL

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 3:30 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 2:55 pm I can't imagine us not breaking a record by the end of the week . CVG not expected to reach 70 until the weekend, which then would give us 10/11 straight days of not reaching 70 in MAY, let alone the MIDDLE OF MAY. I reckon Dayton and maybe Cbus are in the same boat

If we have any folks who use Twitter, that would be a great question to tweet to the NWS ILN to see what the record actually is. Where in the heck is Jason?

I can't figure out Jason either, Bro.

Currently 55 here in G'ville and progged for around 39 or 40 Tues morning.

I made it to 62 today before the clouds out the ca-bosh on that. Going off the visible sat pic, I think mostly cloudy skies will be with us thru much of the night so lows should stay in the 40s for most areas IMO. Those same clouds could keep us in the 50s tomorrow. We'll see how that works out. Clouds clear Tues night and thus our last frost chance of the season. Then we slowly pull out of this pattern, warm up this weekend also, with rain chances at some point also returning.

Interesting graphic. The GFS is behind the Euro and CMC the last 90 days. The Canadian has definitely gotten better the last year or two!

Good morning all! The clouds looked to have played out as expected to keep temps in the 40s this morning. That shouldn't be the case tonight so the mid 30s to upper 30s are likely by tomorrow morning. Thurs morning may also be a close call in that 38-42 degree range. Tomorrow morning, however, is the highest chance for sure and hopefully (I know we keep saying this) but the last one until Fall.

No change to the high temp forecast. Upper 50s to Lower 60s looks good today and tomorrow with the mid 60's Thurs, upper 60s Fri and 70s finally returning this weekend into next week. Still thinking spotty rain chances this weekend increasing late this weekend into early next week.

dce wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:08 pm Interesting graphic. The GFS is behind the Euro and CMC the last 90 days. The Canadian has definitely gotten better the last year or two!

Hey Doug... While the Euro still leads the pack, the GFS with the last upgrade has definitely closed the gap. We are getting better slowly. I like the CMC as well in certain situations and a couple of times this past winter, the CMC did do much better. At times this past winter, I think the GFS did better also. Euro was a little disappointing at times IMO especially with QPF.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 6:31 am Tomorrow morning, however, is the highest chance for sure and hopefully (I know we keep saying this) but the last one until Fall.

Don't look at the 00z GFS, Les - for 20th and 21st. Yup - more 30s for lows! LOL

Folks,

If anyone is interested, ILN will be hosting a virtual talk next week online talking about the Memorial Day 2019 Tornado Outbreak that impacted the region. You have to register to attend and it's free. The talk is on Monday, May 17th from 7-8:30pm.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/letstalk

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 6:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 6:31 am Tomorrow morning, however, is the highest chance for sure and hopefully (I know we keep saying this) but the last one until Fall.

Don't look at the 00z GFS, Les - for 20th and 21st. Yup - more 30s for lows! LOL

Bah Humbug! Euro at Day 10 which is closing in on the above from the GFS, shows spotty rains and milder temps. It's an interesting battle that still rages on. Post 5/20, the Euro breaks us out of this (basically next week) and now the GFS tries to keep it going. EPS backs up the OP Euro so I checked the GEFS and yeah it's not like the Euro with the warmth, but it's not cold like the GFS either. GEFS has more zonal flow so probably a wet pattern again but it wouldn't be cold or warm. It's actually a good compromise between both of the more extreme OP / EPS solutions.

While nothing in my hood - just to my north....and to my south, looks like a few showers are moving through per radar and obs.

Nothing here but partly cloudy skies and temps in the lower 40s.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 6:32 am

dce wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:08 pm Interesting graphic. The GFS is behind the Euro and CMC the last 90 days. The Canadian has definitely gotten better the last year or two!

Hey Doug... While the Euro still leads the pack, the GFS with the last upgrade has definitely closed the gap. We are getting better slowly. I like the CMC as well in certain situations and a couple of times this past winter, the CMC did do much better. At times this past winter, I think the GFS did better also. Euro was a little disappointing at times IMO especially with QPF.

I definitely agree about the Euro. For our part of the world the Euro did not perform well over the winter, which means it must have been a much better performing model in most areas of the globe. Yes, the GFS seems to be better with the latest upgrade. It better be, the Euro is upgrading to a new version starting today if I am not mistaken.