Absolute Vorticity

18z euro went south

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:35 pm 18z euro went south

That’s definitely a good sign. 18z euro ensemble mean is the same track as 12z just stronger.

Why isn't Wilmington pulling the trigger on the Winter Storm Watch? They do a nice job on their AFDs, but their watch /warning statements are always so far behind IND and Louisville

partymarty wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 8:33 pm Why isn't Wilmington pulling the trigger on the Winter Storm Watch? They do a nice job on their AFDs, but their watch /warning statements are always so far behind IND and Louisville

Probably just being cautious. Especially with ptype issues.

Same scenario for indy and Louisville. So many people get weather from their phone alerts, and a well written AFD doesn't hit your phone. An official statement does. Are they that much smarter than offices over a quarter of the central US?

partymarty wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 8:33 pm Why isn't Wilmington pulling the trigger on the Winter Storm Watch? They do a nice job on their AFDs, but their watch /warning statements are always so far behind IND and Louisville

We currently have a winter weather advisory in effect for tonight and tomorrow morning. They may want to wait on the winter storm watch until the WWA expires. This would be less confusing to the general public if indeed that is what they're doing.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 8:45 pm

partymarty wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 8:33 pm Why isn't Wilmington pulling the trigger on the Winter Storm Watch? They do a nice job on their AFDs, but their watch /warning statements are always so far behind IND and Louisville

We currently have a winter weather advisory in effect for tonight and tomorrow morning. They may want to wait on the winter storm watch until the WWA expires. This would be less confusing to the general public if indeed that is what they're doing.

Agree, and they have plenty of time to issue a watch as the storm gets closer.

They tweeted an explanation earlier. Basically they’re waiting for the overnight system to move through and the “big” storm is still far enough out that they have time to wait to issue further watches/warnings.

https://x.com/nwsiln/status/18749245460 ... PsfA4Cw8Ww

The problem with that is WE all follow this and are engaged Average folks only know what pings on their phone. X posts and AFDs don't hit phones. Actual watches and advisories do. Indy and Louisville get it, Wilmington doesn't. This is an ongoing issue

I agree. I mean, a good part of the area isn’t in the WWA for overnight so that shouldn’t be an issue. Not sure why it’s so hard for them to start getting the word out about Sunday sooner rather than later.

0z nam rolling in…

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:21 pm 0z nam rolling in…

Looks like south of the 18z run so far. Way slower too.

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:34 pm

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:21 pm 0z nam rolling in…

Looks like south of the 18z run so far. Way slower too.

Definitely went south! Still at its limit but headed in right direction!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:37 pm

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:34 pm

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:21 pm 0z nam rolling in…

Looks like south of the 18z run so far. Way slower too.

Definitely went south! Still at its limit but headed in right direction!

Much weaker solution, hence the southerly track.

That’s a lot of sleet.

Looks like snow from the river on north

sleet storm !

Good morning and Winter Storm Watches are out from the boys. For CVG Land, they have 5-10" with up to a tenth of an inch of ice. SE Crew 4-8" of snow and a quarter inch of ice. NAM went south mainly sleet and snow for CVG, ice south, all snow north. GFS is still an ice storm for the Tri-state. Euro was way south and weaker. Mainly snow for CVG on north. CMC is manly snow as well. Today should be very telling. But 100% an impactful winter storm is coming in about 48 hours or so from now.

Wow , am I awake or still dreaming?

I took my work laptop home yesterday so I can work from home Mon and Tues of next week. I am mentioning this now, since I am logged in on the customer side at work today so I won't have access to the text data and some of the better model data as I normally would from my work machine. With that being said, I may need you guys to post more often today for better coverage. Once I am home (4pm or whatever today) then I am good to go for the duration of this event.

Latest thinking from the boys:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Potent H5 trough will begin to carve through the Central Plains
region Saturday night, eventually making its way to the Ohio Valley
on Sunday. The associated surface low will take an easterly track
through the lower Ohio / upper Tennessee Valleys. With sub-freezing
surface temperatures already in place across the ILN fa, the low
pressure center will begin to usher in moisture from the Gulf. The
combination of these factors will help lead to an impactful winter
weather system in our CWA.

Locations on the east-southeastern periphery of the low will observe
more of a wintry-mix and notably higher ice accumulations. Trending
northward, thermal profiles will limit the wintry-mix and lead to
more significant snow accumulations. Model solutions continue to
diverge on the track of the low pressure center, but warm air
intrusion in our southern counties does seem like a probable
scenario. This could drastically alter snow accums vs ice accums
over a short distance in our CWA.

There are still probabilities in ensemble data that suggest some
locations in our CWA could end up with snow in excess of 6-8". Areas
of higher snow potential seem to be near the Tristate, but it is
still challenging to say whether the highest snowfall will be closer
to Cincinnati or towards Dayton. As of now, keeping snow totals a
little more conservative in northern KY given the potential for more
wintry-mix there. However, note that a couple tenths of an inch of
ice accumulations not out of the realm of possibilities for our KY
counties.

Timing of this system appears to be trending earlier, but the
longevity of the event is also important to note. Wintry precip may
begin as early as Sunday morning now, closer towards noon. Precip
will continue Sunday night into Monday, with snow being the primary
p-type through the day Monday as colder air funnels in on the back
side of the low. There could be more of a lull in the accumulating
snowfall early Monday before a deformation band forms (right now it
appears to be somewhere between I-70 and the Ohio River line), which
could easily dump several more inches of snowfall Monday
afternoon/evening. Snow will finally begin to taper off by sunset
Monday.

Primary message after the impactful winter system is the Arctic air
mass that settles in. By Wednesday, highs will primarily be in the
teens with lows in the single digits. These bitterly cold
temperatures will persist through the end of the work week and even
into next weekend as a prolonged period of below normal temperatures
develops.

if you guys do end up getting a ton of sleet it will be an easy cleanup. ive had those type of storms before. they are fun and do not cause issues that frz rain or snow would

So we have an interesting model battle shaping up today. The GFS is more north and wetter while the Euro is more south and drier. Which solution wins? Hope to find that out today. It's all the difference for us along / S of the River. An example: My hood could see 6-10" of snow / sleet if the Euro is right. If it's the GFS, then I could get snow and sleet accum of 4-6" with up to 1/4" of ice. Yikes! That' kind of what we're at.

Major implication for I-70 Crew too. Less snow with the Euro say 4-6" but more snow with the GFS in the order of 6-12" plus. For SE Crew, the dry slot would east away at some of the QPF and thus impact totals. I could say up to 1/2" of ice and 2-4" of snow and sleet would be a decent call there versus 4-6" of snow and probably 1/4" of ice on the Euro.

Much to keep an eye on as the energy begins to move onshore the Western US today.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:13 am if you guys do end up getting a ton of sleet it will be an easy cleanup. ive had those type of storms before. they are fun and do not cause issues that frz rain or snow would

Sleet is a bitch to clean up when followed by arctic air. 4-6" of sleet is no fun! Been there, done that. Twice! Frz rain there is nothing you can do with it. All snow is the preferred solution but for Cincy on south, that is going to be tough to pull off IMO unless we see some bigger shifts today in the storm track.