Absolute Vorticity

12Z NAM just clips Cincy Fri afternoon. Signals continue to grow for a N Gulf Coast, TN Valley / East KY / S Apps type of hit IMO. This would make sense due to our large snowpack to be on the NW fringe's of this next system. We'll see... still time for things to change but those have been the trends since late yesterday.

The sun having a struggle this morning and that should keep temps lower than expected today. Before the noon models come out we have seen a southward shift of the next system or should I say the northern piece of energy is not interacting with the southern until it hits the east coast and the Euro just has the energy well south going out to sea. We need the northern piece to speed up if we have any chance of a bigger storm. Still enough energy with the northern systems and just a bit of lift to give us some light snow but that would be 1-2 inches at best. Again southeast Kentucky could get 4 inches unless the Euro is correct. Storm is a positive tilt and that does not bode well and of course the southeast ridge is just squashed well to the south. Though the current cold air mass is not the coldest ever but it is very wide in nature and has went rather far south. Normally for big storms we need cold fronts to stall say in the middle of the gulf states and this time the cold has made to the the shores of the gulf states. Do I see any changes and really the answer is no for this setup. Could we get snow and sure but light in nature. The systems come ashore on Wednesday and then if their are any changes expect that to happen then and again I believe just need that northern piece to move faster or the southern piece to take longer to develop which would slow it down some.

Just a MBY comment, the first double digit snow storm since the mega clipper, the first 5 or more since the mega clipper and more snow in one day than the last two years had produced for a full winter season

just did a little additional clearing out by my streetside; was able to get my daughter's car off my driveway. Need to score some snow melt today when I go out to the dentist, say a prayer for me! I put the last I had down at the apron this morning, hoping its enough to melt that off by end of the day.
This next storm, it makes sense as you said Les that it'll be more south of us; we've discussed that on this forum for a long time. But wonder if that might turn out to be a good thing for our next real storm if there is any remaining snowpack south of us to help mitigate that dreaded WAA. We'll see when the time comes I guess. If we get anything at all over the weekend, it will "pretty up" the landscape for a bit at least. Let's hope the cold isn't too brutal the next couple days.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 10:24 am Just a MBY comment, the first double digit snow storm since the mega clipper, the first 5 or more since the mega clipper and more snow in one day than the last two years had produced for a full winter season

Ouch! It truly has been awful out your way. So happy to see you finally achieve snow fall glory!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 11:40 am just did a little additional clearing out by my streetside; was able to get my daughter's car off my driveway. Need to score some snow melt today when I go out to the dentist, say a prayer for me! I put the last I had down at the apron this morning, hoping its enough to melt that off by end of the day.
This next storm, it makes sense as you said Les that it'll be more south of us; we've discussed that on this forum for a long time. But wonder if that might turn out to be a good thing for our next real storm if there is any remaining snowpack south of us to help mitigate that dreaded WAA. We'll see when the time comes I guess. If we get anything at all over the weekend, it will "pretty up" the landscape for a bit at least. Let's hope the cold isn't too brutal the next couple days.

I did some shoveling on my lunch hour and will finish it up (I hope) after work today. I have to commute tomorrow lol

Concerning the next system, even the GFS is trending towards the other models slowly but surely. So far, to me, it isn't worthy yet of having its own thread. But that's just my opinion. It still looks like we don't get a good phase and the southern low tracks too far away for good snows here. A light event perhaps borderline moderate in our far East but even out that way is not looking quite as nice as it once did.

BG's SnowTalk! blog from earlier.

Just another great video by Brian. We are lucky he stays in Louisville because no doubt he could be with a major city of major weather corp. Seems he talks about everything in such a wonderful manner and easy to understand. He talks about the concerns we have which is good because that means we are probably doing something correct.

For Friday, the 12Z Euro was a little better with the phasing today and was GFS like with 0.32" QPF at CVG. As always, we shall see!

Euro and GFS both give us about 4” in 12 hours. We didn’t have that kind of agreement with the last storm!

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:14 pm Euro and GFS both give us about 4” in 12 hours. We didn’t have that kind of agreement with the last storm!

I'm just a little unsure right now about the degree of phasing we'll see. I'd like to see how things look after another couple of main model cycles.

12Z GEFS Mean at a 10:1 Ratio is 2-3" for our area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:35 pm

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:14 pm Euro and GFS both give us about 4” in 12 hours. We didn’t have that kind of agreement with the last storm!

I'm just a little unsure right now about the degree of phasing we'll see. I'd like to see how things look after another couple of main model cycles.

The good news is, we always have time for that. After this monster, that would be easy!

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:35 pm

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:14 pm Euro and GFS both give us about 4” in 12 hours. We didn’t have that kind of agreement with the last storm!

I'm just a little unsure right now about the degree of phasing we'll see. I'd like to see how things look after another couple of main model cycles.

The good news is, we always have time for that. After this monster, that would be easy!

No doubt! I still have an hour or two of work to do when I am done working in a few mins. so I am able to get out for work in the morning. A few fluffy inches will be cake walk compared to this monster!

Good Afternoon and these tiny systems coming through the area tonight will no doubt keep temps up. I really thought zero Wednesday morning and -10 - -15 Thursday morning but if the clouds hold tough not even close. Btw some good trends for the late week storm and if we can just get that southern piece to slow up by 6-12 hours chances do increase for us to get a decent snow. Play it safe at the moment and the 1-2 inches seems good and though Brian mentioned a 10-1 ratio and I am not so sure that may be a tad higher with the cold in place

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 3:37 pm Good Afternoon and these tiny systems coming through the area tonight will no doubt keep temps up. I really thought zero Wednesday morning and -10 - -15 Thursday morning but if the clouds hold tough not even close. Btw some good trends for the late week storm and if we can just get that southern piece to slow up by 6-12 hours chances do increase for us to get a decent snow. Play it safe at the moment and the 1-2 inches seems good and though Brian mentioned a 10-1 ratio and I am not so sure that may be a tad higher with the cold in place

Hey Tim, I was just looking at the latest GFS and it's been pretty consistent with these little 1 maybe 2 inch clippers next week and then for later next week the model seems to be all over the place with a cutter to now decent OV snowstorm. After that it's wanting to head to a more zonal flow. Although, today's model is keeping the cold around longer! I wonder what the MJO trends are saying?

Wow. Boone county schools already closed again for Wednesday.

CVG got to 26, DAY 28 and CMH 25 today.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:32 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 3:37 pm Good Afternoon and these tiny systems coming through the area tonight will no doubt keep temps up. I really thought zero Wednesday morning and -10 - -15 Thursday morning but if the clouds hold tough not even close. Btw some good trends for the late week storm and if we can just get that southern piece to slow up by 6-12 hours chances do increase for us to get a decent snow. Play it safe at the moment and the 1-2 inches seems good and though Brian mentioned a 10-1 ratio and I am not so sure that may be a tad higher with the cold in place

Hey Tim, I was just looking at the latest GFS and it's been pretty consistent with these little 1 maybe 2 inch clippers next week and then for later next week the model seems to be all over the place with a cutter to now decent OV snowstorm. After that it's wanting to head to a more zonal flow. Although, today's model is keeping the cold around longer! I wonder what the MJO trends are saying?

Hey Joe. The mjo is heading to phase 1 and 2 and rather strong and that is why the cold has staying power. These tellies can feed off each other sometimes and the AO which is negative is supposed to go positive and the nao staying somewhat negative but the pna heading towards negative which usually means a milder period for us. The strength of these tellies is important and last week the phase 1 and 2 was supposed to be weak. So at the end of the day they are nice to look at and are a nice tool but mother nature like always has the last word

Whew! After 2 more hours, finally got everything cleaned up so I can get out for work in the morning. I love big snow but the clean up sucks!

Looking ahead... I agree with Tim. Clouds will keep temps up at night but if we were to lose the clouds, then we'll tank. Models are doing a poor job with this so it's kind of a nowcast. Next up, a few flurries tonight into tomorrow but it shouldn't be a big deal. Dry Thurs and maybe some sun??? Then, we'll see about Fri into Sat with regards to more measurable snow chances. I'm just taking things one step at a time since the pattern is so active!

18Z GFS is back up to 0.30" at CVG for QPF on Friday so fairly close to today's 12Z Euro. If we see these numbers tomorrow, we'll have to start up a new thread!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 5:08 pm Whew! After 2 more hours, finally got everything cleaned up so I can get out for work in the morning. I love big snow but the clean up sucks!

Looking ahead... I agree with Tim. Clouds will keep temps up at night but if we were to lose the clouds, then we'll tank. Models are doing a poor job with this so it's kind of a nowcast. Next up, a few flurries tonight into tomorrow but it shouldn't be a big deal. Dry Thurs and maybe some sun??? Then, we'll see about Fri into Sat with regards to more measurable snow chances. I'm just taking things one step at a time since the pattern is so active!

I agree Les and again with the path of the system at this point 1-2 inches seems correct locally. Nice to see the low in the gulf area but we need the northern system to get closer to the southern system as this can help pull up some moisture further north. Saw on Brian's videos about how thunderstorms can hurt or help with snows like we talked about with this last system. Will no doubt look at this more as the energy should be getting into the mainland on Wednesday.

Hey Les just saw your post and .30 with the cold is a 2-4 inch range imo.

I agree Tim... A 1-3" or a 2-4" system seems most likely at this juncture (advisory criteria).

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 5:37 pm I agree Tim... A 1-3" or a 2-4" system seems most likely at this juncture (advisory criteria).

I agree Les and folks in southern Kentucky though may hit the warning status on this storm. I see Memphis already talking 4-6 inches

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 5:08 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:32 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 3:37 pm Good Afternoon and these tiny systems coming through the area tonight will no doubt keep temps up. I really thought zero Wednesday morning and -10 - -15 Thursday morning but if the clouds hold tough not even close. Btw some good trends for the late week storm and if we can just get that southern piece to slow up by 6-12 hours chances do increase for us to get a decent snow. Play it safe at the moment and the 1-2 inches seems good and though Brian mentioned a 10-1 ratio and I am not so sure that may be a tad higher with the cold in place

Hey Tim, I was just looking at the latest GFS and it's been pretty consistent with these little 1 maybe 2 inch clippers next week and then for later next week the model seems to be all over the place with a cutter to now decent OV snowstorm. After that it's wanting to head to a more zonal flow. Although, today's model is keeping the cold around longer! I wonder what the MJO trends are saying?

Hey Joe. The mjo is heading to phase 1 and 2 and rather strong and that is why the cold has staying power. These tellies can feed off each other sometimes and the AO which is negative is supposed to go positive and the nao staying somewhat negative but the pna heading towards negative which usually means a milder period for us. The strength of these tellies is important and last week the phase 1 and 2 was supposed to be weak. So at the end of the day they are nice to look at and are a nice tool but mother nature like always has the last word

Thanks Tim, I really enjoy reading what you all say about the tellies, MJO and the models. Also want to compliment you all on the excellent job with this past storm. It was about time we all got hit!