Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 6:52 am I was watching one of Travis Roberts reports last night and he mentioned that the mjo later this month would be in phase 6 and 7 later this month but he called these cold phases of the mjo. Not sure why he said this or maybe just a mistake that we all make once in awhile. He is fine but I listen to Brian as I believe he is one of the best around plus his forecasts seems to agree with ours on here lol. I love making a forecast and then listen to Brian because if it differs than what I am seeing this makes go back to square one and see what the heck I am missing.

Not sure on that either Tim. Phase 6 is a blow torch typically with 7 being a transitional phase then 8, 1, and 2 are of course cold.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:03 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 6:52 am I was watching one of Travis Roberts reports last night and he mentioned that the mjo later this month would be in phase 6 and 7 later this month but he called these cold phases of the mjo. Not sure why he said this or maybe just a mistake that we all make once in awhile. He is fine but I listen to Brian as I believe he is one of the best around plus his forecasts seems to agree with ours on here lol. I love making a forecast and then listen to Brian because if it differs than what I am seeing this makes go back to square one and see what the heck I am missing.

Not sure on that either Tim. Phase 6 is a blow torch typically with 7 being a transitional phase then 8, 1, and 2 are of course cold.

There’s so much misrepresentation of what the models are showing from, name your big boy met or firm on the internet , it’s laughable. I don’t know if it’s intentional or not. Cherry picking the long range is there expertise

HAPPY 33RD BIRTHDAY TREVOR!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 8:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:03 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 6:52 am I was watching one of Travis Roberts reports last night and he mentioned that the mjo later this month would be in phase 6 and 7 later this month but he called these cold phases of the mjo. Not sure why he said this or maybe just a mistake that we all make once in awhile. He is fine but I listen to Brian as I believe he is one of the best around plus his forecasts seems to agree with ours on here lol. I love making a forecast and then listen to Brian because if it differs than what I am seeing this makes go back to square one and see what the heck I am missing.

Not sure on that either Tim. Phase 6 is a blow torch typically with 7 being a transitional phase then 8, 1, and 2 are of course cold.

There’s so much misrepresentation of what the models are showing from, name your big boy met or firm on the internet , it’s laughable. I don’t know if it’s intentional or not. Cherry picking the long range is there expertise

The modeling has been bad as you have mentioned before. I'm still going with the notion of some changes as we approach Christmas. I could be rushing that by 7-10 days but that is my current thinking. I think early January looks cold. Also seeing signs of possible SSW later this month which may also be of some interest come 2025. For now, thru at least 12/20-12/22 range... I am sticking with rain makers or rain ending as flakes with most of these systems.

Great Posts guys and do we get a SSW later this month and yes that is possible and we know it can take a little time after that to feel the effects. Always caution to see where the coldest of air may go but I like what I see this far out. These can really bring down some cold air like we saw back in January and yes even without snow cover the cold can reach quite far south. If we have more snow cover over the northern half of the country before this can lock in the cold for a longer period. Last year snow cover was thin even in the northern plains and upper mid-west so the cold period was short in nature. So far this season the coldest of air has been directed towards us and the northeast but will this be the case next month. I have been promoting the coldest of air this season towards the northeast but will that be the case if we get the SSW and that cold air is directed towards us and the answer is I don't know.

I think we are a ways away from having an SSW , especially for this month. To many uncertainties in the coming weeks on a strengthening PV and how coupled the strat and troposphere are or will be ( still grasping this aspect.) I do know we have to have precursor events ( large high/low pressure) in the right spots to begin with and we haven’t even begun the process of that.

I really like what the short term models are showing for the next few days. As the front creeps slowly along small pieces of energy form along this to either give us some rain on Tuesday and then some snow on Wednesday. These systems are tricky and can throw a surprise or two especially when they get a tad stronger. Even after this snow showers in the forecast through Thursday. Last week the CMC had a nice snowstorm for us while the gfs had nothing and the Euro was leaning towards the CMC. Not saying this is a snowstorm but the chances of some light accumulation is possible. Last week I sent out my winter forecast for my neighbors and told them that the middle of this week was a 50/50 shot of some snow. The pattern seemed good but the models just were not convincing enough for me to say we are getting some snow.

Happy Birthday Trev and thanks for everything you do with this forum. Just know that it is MUCH appreciated!!!!!

Happy Birthday, Trev! Picked up 0.31" rain here and is currently 53F.

I looked at the 12Z NAM, HRRR, and GFS in the short term and IMO a touch of rain tomorrow followed by some snow showers on Wed is a good call. I won't rule out a dusting on the grass / car topper but that's it. Best chance at anything decent for accumulations, should be well to our east over the App. Mountains.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 11:03 am I looked at the 12Z NAM, HRRR, and GFS in the short term and IMO a touch of rain tomorrow followed by some snow showers on Wed is a good call. I won't rule out a dusting on the grass / car topper but that's it. Best chance at anything decent for accumulations, should be well to our east over the App. Mountains.

Les and I may disagree on the short term though we both show snow showers but I have seen this where piece of upper energy gets thrown into the main low even if its weak in nature and the systems can overproduce what models show. Bad item is the ground temps have warmed and yes the pavement may be wet so harder to accumulate on pavement but for possible accumulation I could see 1-2 inches even here locally. Yes where will the cutoff be for an extended period of light to moderate snow is key as well. Will watch this over the next day to see if models change but its those tricky small items that models sometimes just don't see that often and they miss.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 1:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 11:03 am I looked at the 12Z NAM, HRRR, and GFS in the short term and IMO a touch of rain tomorrow followed by some snow showers on Wed is a good call. I won't rule out a dusting on the grass / car topper but that's it. Best chance at anything decent for accumulations, should be well to our east over the App. Mountains.

Les and I may disagree on the short term though we both show snow showers but I have seen this where piece of upper energy gets thrown into the main low even if its weak in nature and the systems can overproduce what models show. Bad item is the ground temps have warmed and yes the pavement may be wet so harder to accumulate on pavement but for possible accumulation I could see 1-2 inches even here locally. Yes where will the cutoff be for an extended period of light to moderate snow is key as well. Will watch this over the next day to see if models change but its those tricky small items that models sometimes just don't see that often and they miss.

If the trough were to sharpen up a little quicker then the best snows would certainly fall more to the West, but I'm not seeing that. That's why I posted what I said earlier today. The 12Z Canadian and RGEM solutions are close to this idea actually. There isn't enough model support for me to bite yet.

Wednesday should be a fun day . I don’t think it’s changed a whole lot . We’ll see some sun in the morning and like we see in the warmer months with CAA showers developing after a strong cold front moves through, but in this case we’ll see some Widely scattered vigorous CAA snow showers in the afternoon/evening.

I watched a live weather stream the other night DT was a special guest. he talked about the long range a bit and said we will most likely be in phase 7 for later this month and then possibly going into the good phases for January. what he showed and what long range models showed is more cold and clipper type pattern coming as we get closer to the new year and or deeper into January

Both CVG / DAY got to 54 and CMH 55 today.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 11:10 pm I watched a live weather stream the other night DT was a special guest. he talked about the long range a bit and said we will most likely be in phase 7 for later this month and then possibly going into the good phases for January. what he showed and what long range models showed is more cold and clipper type pattern coming as we get closer to the new year and or deeper into January

That was what his This Week in Weather video showed last week also. DT is all in on a colder winter. We shall see! Hope he's right.

Good morning all! A few showers are possible today but still mild. See Bgoney's post for tomorrow as he has the action covered nicely with regards to snow showers. Then we warm up and get wet this weekend esp on Saturday.

Good Morning a quick shot of cold heading this way overnight and lasting through probably Friday morning. Systems are moving fast with little blocking so getting a system every 3 days or so seems correct but this usually means no major storms over the next 7-10 days and maybe beyond. Overnight to night should see a quick shot of snow but with the warmer ground streets should be just fine. Later Wednesday afternoon and early evening has a chance to provide some slick roads. More cold air will pour in along an arctic front and this should produce some decent snow showers or even a snow squall which is just a stronger shower. The winds will be strong as well so snow can blow across the streets and once we get say past 3pm the roads may become cold enough to cause slick spots. I mentioned 1-2 inches possible total from all the action but sure somebody may get that total with a strong squall but this is not a widespread 1-2 inches. So probably a better forecast is calling for snow showers that could lead to slick spots and up to an inch possible. Sometimes even small amounts can cause more problems because folks don't see a number attached and figure everything will be fine.

I agree Tim... I don't think we'll have any issues other then isolated cases where you'll see a reduction in visibility, which can make driving tough on that fact alone. I think roads will be just fine and if any accum is observed it'll be on the grass, car tops, etc.

Good Morning and the PV is starting to get strong and a good way to tell is temps falling in the polar regions. Saw some -50 - -60 readings in Siberia and a -40 in northern Canada. Siberia has been very mild so far and though we got a few cold shots over the past couple of weeks its not been true arctic air but very cold Canadian air. How strong does the PV get and if so when where there be a SSW to release the cold to the lower latitudes. To me its just a normal process and models tend to rush these items so I still believe we stay on the milder side through December with a few shots of cold but nothing that lasts long. The PNA remains positive and if that continues we will not be blow torched but if in the next few weeks that retreats to negative then you could have a few days above 60. Besides the short term cold I expect temps the next two weeks to reside in the mid 40's-low 50's as a general rule though at times a little colder once a front comes through. This is not a snowy pattern by any means after Thursday

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2024 7:05 am I agree Tim... I don't think we'll have any issues other then isolated cases where you'll see a reduction in visibility, which can make driving tough on that fact alone. I think roads will be just fine and if any accum is observed it'll be on the grass, car tops, etc.

Les I still remember an event probably over 20 years ago and a day where a few snow showers were expected. I remember it was cloudy but the sun came out around 2pm and by 4 or 430pm a 30 minute snow squall occurred. I was over in the west side of Cincinnati. I left around 5pm and got home around 11pm. The roads everywhere were iced over and this always concerns me when I see a day like Wednesday because this is a nice shot of cold and can just flow to the surface quickly and then boom roads are a mess. No way to treat these as well and I always tell my kids even today though they are 41 and 36 to make sure you have at least 1/2 tank of gas at all times and even more important in the winter. I would love to see a few snow showers but without any problems on the road. These kind of events usually catches models,met's and weather forecasters off guard often so that is why I try and tell folks just watch the weather during this time period and be ready in case we see a period of snow later Wednesday afternoon

Today’s MJO update continues with it doing its best Slowpoke Rodriguez imitation in the Maritimes phases. It’s already spent 2 weeks there and counting. 850 wind anomalies continue the battle of East/west winds, so slow is the way to go in the short term. When we see the easterlies start to relax we’ll see that change but into what is still an uncertainty

Bgoney we are on the same page with the mjo and the reason I believe the change to a colder pattern is closer to the New Year or even a tad later. Remarkable the gfs and euro very similar in the ongoing process.