Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 8:02 am Good Football Sunday morning to you all! Before we get to the weather, I'd like to start off by saying great news Eric and I'm glad your Mom's surgery went well! Also let's all wish JR76 a very Happy Birthday today! Thanks for being part of our forum community!

Okay so on to the forecast... CVG hit 79 yesterday and we can expect similar temps if not cracking 80 today. It'll be a breezy day with SW winds gusting 20-30 mph ahead of the next cold front. Temps will drop and stay in the 50s for highs tomorrow thru Wed. We also have a small shower chance (best chance North) Mon night and Tues with the upper trough moving thru. As far as frost chances go, Wed and Thurs mornings offer up the best chances with mid 30s expected in city areas and 29-32 in rural outlying areas. I expect frost advisories to be issued for the entire area on those two nights (Tues night and Wed night). Patchy frost is also possible for Fri morning with the upper 30s expected for CVG Land. Highs for the second half of the week will warm into the 60s with 70s back by either Fri or the weekend. Clear skies at night and sunny days (other then Mon and Tues) can be expected thru the forecast period into next weekend.

In the extended range, our next system might come around the 24-25th and another towards the end of the month. Rain chances might be picking up a bit as well for the last week of the month. That has been my call for a while now and I still see evidence on the models to support it so no changes there from me. Also seeing some colder air building in Canada oozing down into the N Plains so some snowfall in those areas is also looking possible as we get towards the end of the month. I like what I am seeing with regards to some changes finally coming our way. It's still a ways out there so I don't have high confidence just yet, so we'll call it medium being this far out still. Give it another week and we should know the correct answer by then.

The Ensembles are showing ridging poking up into Alaska with a trough over the Pacific NW / N Plains / Rockies and ridging for the Lakes, OV, SE US and into New England with a +NAO / +AO with cold air / trough building over Canada / Greenland areas. That is definitely looking more La Nina like at 500 MB as we go deeper into the Fall. That is not a wintry pattern for us with the ridging over the East, but maybe it'll lead to some rain if we are close enough to the storm track. Not sure if that will remain to our NW or not this far out in time. The pattern I described does match up with the MJO Phase 4-6 progression for the second half of October as we have discussed previously on here so no surprises to be honest at this point. Again, all we are looking for are better rain chances with the new pattern but as long as the ridging remains in place, mild weather will continue after next week's cool spell.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:01 am 63 for a low at cvg, if we don’t drop below that before midnight, it’s a top 5 warmest low for the date

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 11:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 8:02 am Good Football Sunday morning to you all! Before we get to the weather, I'd like to start off by saying great news Eric and I'm glad your Mom's surgery went well! Also let's all wish JR76 a very Happy Birthday today! Thanks for being part of our forum community!

Okay so on to the forecast... CVG hit 79 yesterday and we can expect similar temps if not cracking 80 today. It'll be a breezy day with SW winds gusting 20-30 mph ahead of the next cold front. Temps will drop and stay in the 50s for highs tomorrow thru Wed. We also have a small shower chance (best chance North) Mon night and Tues with the upper trough moving thru. As far as frost chances go, Wed and Thurs mornings offer up the best chances with mid 30s expected in city areas and 29-32 in rural outlying areas. I expect frost advisories to be issued for the entire area on those two nights (Tues night and Wed night). Patchy frost is also possible for Fri morning with the upper 30s expected for CVG Land. Highs for the second half of the week will warm into the 60s with 70s back by either Fri or the weekend. Clear skies at night and sunny days (other then Mon and Tues) can be expected thru the forecast period into next weekend.

In the extended range, our next system might come around the 24-25th and another towards the end of the month. Rain chances might be picking up a bit as well for the last week of the month. That has been my call for a while now and I still see evidence on the models to support it so no changes there from me. Also seeing some colder air building in Canada oozing down into the N Plains so some snowfall in those areas is also looking possible as we get towards the end of the month. I like what I am seeing with regards to some changes finally coming our way. It's still a ways out there so I don't have high confidence just yet, so we'll call it medium being this far out still. Give it another week and we should know the correct answer by then.

The Ensembles are showing ridging poking up into Alaska with a trough over the Pacific NW / N Plains / Rockies and ridging for the Lakes, OV, SE US and into New England with a +NAO / +AO with cold air / trough building over Canada / Greenland areas. That is definitely looking more La Nina like at 500 MB as we go deeper into the Fall. That is not a wintry pattern for us with the ridging over the East, but maybe it'll lead to some rain if we are close enough to the storm track. Not sure if that will remain to our NW or not this far out in time. The pattern I described does match up with the MJO Phase 4-6 progression for the second half of October as we have discussed previously on here so no surprises to be honest at this point. Again, all we are looking for are better rain chances with the new pattern but as long as the ridging remains in place, mild weather will continue after next week's cool spell.

Awesome post Les, I’ll take my chances with any kind of change to 500mb pattern, than what we’ve seen for summer/fall for much of the central part of the country precipitation wise.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 11:06 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:01 am 63 for a low at cvg, if we don’t drop below that before midnight, it’s a top 5 warmest low for the date

Looks like 63 was the low and getting those strong southwest winds at the correct time and you can see a top 5 warmest. See this quite often in the winter with warm and cold especially from late at night until morning when you have the correct timing a record top 5 high or low happens and again the date matters so really just plain luck. So far this month 4 degrees above normal and for the year 3 degrees above normal. Rainfall well below normal for the month a just shy of 2 inches below normal for the year. So why the drought conditions and timing once again. When it rains is important in getting drought conditions and we just happen to have a year where the timing is bad. I have seen years where rainfall is 5 inches or more below normal but the timing was good.

So long term not worried at all and you look over the past 10 years my guess is 7 or more are above normal when it comes to rainfall its the timing that is the main concern. Mother Nature will take care of business as usual.

Wednesday or Thursday morning do we hit 32 or below. Going to be close and yes some outlying areas will easily go below 32 as some this past week were as low as 37 while Cvg and urban areas stayed in the mid 40's. This week though a much larger area of temps in the 30's and some below the 32 degree mark. Will it be a freeze and my guess no because usually you need at least 3 hours of temps 29 or lower and not sure we get to that point this week.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 5:04 pm Thank you very much Les and to others, too, for your prayers for my Mom and for Dad and I as she's coming along great PTL! She's not allowed to bend over at the waist for a week from this past Thurs (day of her procedure) through next Thurs so we're helping with tasks like picking up things for her e.g. etc. She's uses medium-sized Ziploc bags of frozen peas for swelling and discomfort relief.

The downside about these gusty winds is they're sure the pollen mixer as others like Les and Tim can attest to also. My hay fever histamine "war" is full-scale at times.

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 5:15 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 5:04 pm Thank you very much Les and to others, too, for your prayers for my Mom and for Dad and I as she's coming along great PTL! She's not allowed to bend over at the waist for a week from this past Thurs (day of her procedure) through next Thurs so we're helping with tasks like picking up things for her e.g. etc. She's uses medium-sized Ziploc bags of frozen peas for swelling and discomfort relief.

The downside about these gusty winds is they're sure the pollen mixer as others like Les and Tim can attest to also. My hay fever histamine "war" is full-scale at times.

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

We need a killing freeze but hopefully a little frost action this week will help.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:24 am Where the country has been temp wise since the beginning of Sept and the medium range future for precip





IMG_2440.jpegIMG_2438.jpeg

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:40 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:24 am Where the country has been temp wise since the beginning of Sept and the medium range future for precip





IMG_2440.jpegIMG_2438.jpeg

Pretty much a broken record lol The only changes coming up down the road that I see on those maps are for the West to turn cooler and we will keep seeing ridging from time to time. This continues into November as well. Hopefully, we will start to see more moisture towards the end of the month and into November as has been previously discussed. Fingers crossed!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:40 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:24 am Where the country has been temp wise since the beginning of Sept and the medium range future for precip





IMG_2440.jpegIMG_2438.jpeg

Pretty much a broken record lol The only changes coming up down the road that I see on those maps are for the West to turn cooler and we will keep seeing ridging from time to time. This continues into November as well. Hopefully, we will start to see more moisture towards the end of the month and into November as has been previously discussed. Fingers crossed!

Three years in a row we’ll be going deep into fall and more than likely part of the winter with many parts of the country in a drought status of varying degrees

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 11:45 am In the shorter term, and maybe this is just me, but I kind of like seeing gray skies again! It beats the endless string of blue skies that we have been seeing.

Jacob755 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 11:45 am In the shorter term, and maybe this is just me, but I kind of like seeing gray skies again! It beats the endless string of blue skies that we have been seeing.

I miss the clouds

dce wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 2:07 pm Give it about two or three more weeks and that lake effect rain band coming off of Lake Michigan could be snow.