Absolute Vorticity

You can see the outer band weakening on radar now as we feared.

12Z GFS offers a ray of hope for some light rain next Wed as the next tropical low actually tracks right over us. First model run that keeps the system intact long enough to help. I am still going dry for next week at this distance. Would need to see more model runs and also additional support.

87 at CVG today, 85 here.

CVG reached 87 and both DAY / CMH 88 today.

ILN Drought update

EU Ensembles 5 day temp average to finish the month . Canada experiencing the largest anomaly . Locally (cvg) , our mid month highs are below 80 and lows upper 50s and losing a degree on both ends about every 2/3 days

Good morning all! The above images in Bgoney's great post tells the story. Look for warm and mostly dry conditions for the next 7-10 days at least. Highs in the 80s lows in the 60s will be the rule. An outside chance that we could see some light rain on Wed of next week from a tropical system that is currently off the Carolina Coast. Most models show this system staying East of the Mountains but there is a little bit of guidance that gets the remnant low into KY. We'll see but I am going dry at this time and staying with the drought trends.

I think most of Sept is shot. However, in the extended range, there are some signals showing up that we may start seeing a patter chance to cooler and more active weather for October. This is several weeks away and I am not putting much stock into it yet. I will be keeping an eye on it though. For now the next 2 weeks is whatcha see is whatcha get IMO.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2024 7:27 am EU Ensembles 5 day temp average to finish the month . Canada experiencing the largest anomaly . Locally (cvg) , our mid month highs are below 80 and lows upper 50s and losing a degree on both ends about every 2/3 days



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Might as well be a Dec-Feb 2024-25 temperature map. The way things have been going I won't be surprised if it happens.

Sure is warm today at the boys football games. Getting tired of this heat.

dce wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2024 12:07 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2024 7:27 am EU Ensembles 5 day temp average to finish the month . Canada experiencing the largest anomaly . Locally (cvg) , our mid month highs are below 80 and lows upper 50s and losing a degree on both ends about every 2/3 days



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IMG_2232.jpegIMG_2233.jpeg

Might as well be a Dec-Feb 2024-25 temperature map. The way things have been going I won't be surprised if it happens.

The days and nights are wonderful for backyard activities and get’r done chores, but a complete disaster for the agriculture/ arbor culture world. More counties will be added to the disaster designation in the coming weeks, especially along and south of 71

Quite depressing the drought.

Prayerfully as Les mentioned earlier a pattern flip for the better come October.

CVG got to 90 and both DAY / CMH 89'ed today.

I got 89'ed today!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2024 5:29 pm CVG got to 90 and both DAY / CMH 89'ed today.

90s just won’t quit

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2024 7:22 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2024 5:29 pm CVG got to 90 and both DAY / CMH 89'ed today.

90s just won’t quit

I expect another one today or an 89 at the very least. Towards the end of Sept, a cooler signal and maybe some rain is showing up. Still looking bleak until then.

CVG is at 89 as of 4pm so we'll see if we can get a sneaky 90 in there for today.

Still 89 as of 5pm so we may have fallen short of 90 today.

CVG, DAY and CMH all 89'ed today.

here in Pa it hasn't been all that much above average so far this month. most days have been seasonal to +5 . however it has been on the dry side so far this month but nothing severe. my 7 day is looking seasonal with a a slight chance of rain this week

Good Morning and half way through the month an we are above normal on temps finally. About 1/2 degree but this week that will no doubt go upwards. So far the month has played out like we thought with the first 10 days below normal and it looks like the middle ten will no doubt be above normal. How far above will be determined by the tropical system off the Carolina's and how much cloud cover it can throw this way. Then what happens the last ten days will determine the overall temps this month. If the tropics remain active near the mainland USA then my prediction of getting one or two cold fronts through the area will be tough. Still believe one such front around the 22nd of 23rd and another near the 29th or so but again as usual in September the tropics though still behind on numbers predicted it can slow down the pattern. Of course the dryness continues and not seeing anything but maybe a shower Wednesday but not everyone will get in on that action and even so it won't make much difference.

Folks heading to Brown County,Indiana in a few hours to play golf with the boys and will be back Thursday evening. Once I get back its time to start gearing up for the next 5 months which I love and time to start digging into a load of information to see how the winter may and I say may play out.

Good morning all! Tim... have a great time and good luck golfing! Weather looks good for you although a bit warm in the afternoons for my liking. With regards to your thoughts of two fronts, I am on board for the later (29th timeframe) That front currently looks to be strong enough to perhaps bring some rain and cooler temps to the area. Until then, I expect dry weather for most of us. Slight chance on Wed for our extreme Eastern counties but the rest of us should remain dry from that tropical system. Ridging and drought are just too much right now.

Bad thing is no one in the OV drought is going to get widespread meaningful qpf. Ohio was never in the game but even most of West Virginia won’t see much alleviation , as the deeper moisture from the piece of junk tropical system struggles to get past the mountains

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2024 6:04 am Bad thing is no one in the OV drought is going to get widespread meaningful qpf. Ohio was never in the game but even most of West Virginia won’t see much alleviation , as the deeper moisture from the piece of junk tropical system struggles to get past the mountains

Yep. Same ole song and dance. Another 7-10 days of above normal temps and dryness on the way. It's like a broken record. I have pretty much written off this month accept for some potential very late in the month or early October. until then, the pattern is zzzzzzzz.

As long as +WPO stays in charge , and looks like it will for the most part through the end of the month and beginning of October, I don’t see significant changes in our region. The Great Lakes/Canadian high pressure should still be the result from a +WPO. A few days of nearer to normal late this month but then right back up to above. With only lackluster amounts of qpf. The only thing as usual that could help in the rain department is a tropical miracle

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2024 8:16 am As long as +WPO stays in charge , and looks like it will for the most part through the end of the month and beginning of October, I don’t see significant changes in our region. The Great Lakes/Canadian high pressure should still be the result from a +WPO. A few days of nearer to normal late this month but then right back up to above. With only lackluster amounts of qpf. The only thing as usual that could help in the rain department is a tropical miracle

Ensemble guidance is showing the tropics getting more active for the next month or so. However, (and we all know this) it is too early to know if we will be impacted by any of these systems. It is a good sign though seeing more potential development down the road. I hate having to depend on the tropics for help as much as the next guy, but it's all we've got currently. The stubborn +WPO is working in conjunction with the very -PDO. You're right. Until we see some changes in the Pacific we won't see much change around here locally.