Absolute Vorticity

84 at CVG but the dew is still nice at 56. Per the 12Z GFS Thurs night into Fri morning is still our best chance for rain over the next week.

I hit 87 earlier, now down to 83 thanks to the clouds.

Still not seeing widespread ( MCSs) regional rainfall for cvgland , Kday , kcmh, with the upcoming rain chances end of week and beyond. Scattered garden variety t-showers look to rule .

Good Evening and another wonderful day though temps and dew points rising slightly each day. I agree with Bgoney about the scattered showers and thundershowers but where we disagree is these look to be big rain makers in a short period and more than you see with garden variety thundershowers. Where these hit is still to early but if somebody gets under one of these slow-movers it can put down 2-3 inches very quickly. When I see hot air trying to work into a piece of energy moving across the country this always raises red flags and models have a hard time in getting the higher amounts in their system. I do believe later Thursday and Friday is the best shot of these higher amounts That is why putting down a general total will not work because yes you can be correct in say 30p/c of the area but wrong either to low or to high on the other 70p/c.

What I try and do is take the big weather stations nearest us and that is Indy,Dayton,C-bus,Cvg,Louisville and Lexington and take an average of them from Thursday-Sunday Just by what I think may happen and how models are handling this I will go with 1-2 inches for the average over those 4days. Saying that you can see a couple of places get 3-4 inches and others under 1/2 inch but this is summer in this part of the world.

CVG got to 85, DAY 84 and CMH 86 today.

Good morning all! We have two opportunities now coming up for rain. The best chance will be Thurs night into Fri morning. A break then another chance late Fri afternoon and evening with a cold front. That's it, then we're back to dry and nice weather again. I think isolated amounts of 1/2 to maybe an inch are possible but a lot of folks will get a tenth of an inch or less. The usual set up between the have's and have nots. We could see the upper 80s today and Thursday if enough sunshine is realized. Otherwise, low to mid 80s thereafter. Lows will generally remain in the 60s over the next week.

SPC also has a marginal risk out for thru night into the day on Friday with regards to severe wx. It will be isolated for sure and strong winds is the biggest issue with any isolated cells that are able to intensify. I agree with the posts on here of it being scattered with the locations to cash in TBD. That will be a nowcast as it usually is.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all! We have two opportunities now coming up for rain. The best chance will be Thurs night into Fri morning. A break then another chance late Fri afternoon and evening with a cold front. That's it, then we're back to dry and nice weather again. I think isolated amounts of 1/2 to maybe an inch are possible but a lot of folks will get a tenth of an inch or less. The usual set up between the have's and have nots. We could see the upper 80s today and Thursday if enough sunshine is realized. Otherwise, low to mid 80s thereafter. Lows will generally remain in the 60s over the next week.

Pretty much agree, amounts will vary, hopefully the early Friday rains can produce something close to widespread rains because I’m not to impressed with Saturdays chances other than isolated t-showers. Looks like the frontal passage moves through quicker so Sunday chances are pretty much gone.

Good Morning and back to mid-August type weather though we had a nice break. Will try and not be long-winded like last night but rainfall starting late Thursday through the weekend. Still believe models are underestimating totals but another reason I went higher is because of the Hurricane that will be coming north off the east coast. This storm will throw up a stop sign this weekend and then I would expect more showers and thundershowers in the Ohio Valley over the weekend. No doubt this is a roll of the dice this early in the game and if the Hurricane goes further east than the forecast chances of rainfall this weekend will go down but also if the storm is further west chances go up. No doubt the Ohio Valley will be the dividing line this weekend and that is why I thought its almost impossible to get a total for each location in the Ohio Valley. So will stick with 1-2 inches for the weekend but that is averaging out the 6 locations I mentioned last night. Early next week should turn drier and slightly below on temps though anytime you can get temps even a few degrees below normal in August it is a plus in my book.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 6:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all! We have two opportunities now coming up for rain. The best chance will be Thurs night into Fri morning. A break then another chance late Fri afternoon and evening with a cold front. That's it, then we're back to dry and nice weather again. I think isolated amounts of 1/2 to maybe an inch are possible but a lot of folks will get a tenth of an inch or less. The usual set up between the have's and have nots. We could see the upper 80s today and Thursday if enough sunshine is realized. Otherwise, low to mid 80s thereafter. Lows will generally remain in the 60s over the next week.

Pretty much agree, amounts will vary, hopefully the early Friday rains can produce something close to widespread rains because I’m not to impressed with Saturdays chances other than isolated t-showers. Looks like the frontal passage moves through quicker so Sunday chances are pretty much gone.

Agreed. The day time hours for Thursday's chances are gone now too. So instead of 4 days worth of chances, it's honestly been narrowed down to a day and a half to two days for the most part.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 6:45 am Good Morning and back to mid-August type weather though we had a nice break. Will try and not be long-winded like last night but rainfall starting late Thursday through the weekend. Still believe models are underestimating totals but another reason I went higher is because of the Hurricane that will be coming north off the east coast. This storm will throw up a stop sign this weekend and then I would expect more showers and thundershowers in the Ohio Valley over the weekend. No doubt this is a roll of the dice this early in the game and if the Hurricane goes further east than the forecast chances of rainfall this weekend will go down but also if the storm is further west chances go up. No doubt the Ohio Valley will be the dividing line this weekend and that is why I thought its almost impossible to get a total for each location in the Ohio Valley. So will stick with 1-2 inches for the weekend but that is averaging out the 6 locations I mentioned last night. Early next week should turn drier and slightly below on temps though anytime you can get temps even a few degrees below normal in August it is a plus in my book.

Good morning Tim. IMO if the hurricane got closer to the coast, then I think we'd see a slower frontal passage. However, since Ernesto has developed faster then what the models originally have indicated, it will feel the effects of the next trough sooner so thus, it passes much further out to sea off the coast. So therefore the front can move thru our area a little quicker as a result. This is why Saturday's chances are more isolated and Sunday will most likely now end up being dry as Bgoney eluded too.

Good Morning Les and I understand exactly where you and Bgoney forecasts could turn out correct. I mentioned its a throw of the dice early in the game and probably by later Thursday we have a better ideal. I agree the system has developed quicker but how strong does this system get. Will this be a cat1 or does it strengthen to a cat3 at some point. The cone that the NHS has thrown out is very wide being this close in time and that tells me they are just not sure which path the Hurricane will take.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 7:01 am Good Morning Les and I understand exactly where you and Bgoney forecasts could turn out correct. I mentioned its a throw of the dice early in the game and probably by later Thursday we have a better ideal. I agree the system has developed quicker but how strong does this system get. Will this be a cat1 or does it strengthen to a cat3 at some point. The cone that the NHS has thrown out is very wide being this close in time and that tells me they are just not sure which path the Hurricane will take.

I'm thinking that it will be a Cat 3 or major hurricane. It should get up into the 115-120 mph range IMO. The speed of the system has slowed down considerably since yesterday. Recall that it was cruising along at 20-25 mph. Now it is moving at 16 mph per the 5am update from the NHC. This should give it more time over warmer waters to intensify.

I agree Les and the stronger it gets the more likely the western part of the cone is more likely.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 7:47 am I agree Les and the stronger it gets the more likely the western part of the cone is more likely.

Absolutely Tim! The only impacts that I see to the East Coast of the US is high surf / rip currents. For actual land mass impacts, the island of Bermuda should be keeping a close eye on it.

No doubt we’ll see an expansion in the drought south and east of 71 when it comes out tomorrow

Not a good run on the 12Z GFS for beneficial rainfall coming up. Scattered rains at best like we've been saying. Woof... not good.

Best hope is still with a weakening cluster of showers early Friday , with areas along and north of 71 (of course) having a better chance of more qpf than areas south

I got 89'ed today as did CVG as of the 3pm reading. Will wait for the climate report to come out for verification of course. You never know. We've seen those sneaky 90s before when a jet takes off!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 4:40 pm I got 89'ed today as did CVG as of the 3pm reading. Will wait for the climate report to come out for verification of course. You never know. We've seen those sneaky 90s before when a jet takes off!

Looks like they hit ninety for a nanosecond

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 4:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2024 4:40 pm I got 89'ed today as did CVG as of the 3pm reading. Will wait for the climate report to come out for verification of course. You never know. We've seen those sneaky 90s before when a jet takes off!

Looks like they hit ninety for a nanosecond

Yep, I just saw it.

CVG reached 90, DAY 86 and CMH 87 today.

Good morning all! Last day of the upper 80s, to perhaps 90 for a bit. The humidity will be increasing as well. We'll see what happens with t-storms overnight into Fri morning as a warm front passes thru the area. Again, this is our best chance at precip. Scattered precip chances continue late Friday and into Sat as well but there is no reason whatsoever to cancel any outdoor plans. None of this is going to be widespread. Good luck to all!!! Highs 80 to 85 with lows in the 50s return to the picture along with lower humidity as we head into next week.