Good Morning Les and your forecast looks great. I can see 90 0r 91 next Monday and Tuesday and like you mentioned the front on Friday looks to keep the temps in the upper 80's. Next week the models differ on what may happen with the tropics and of course a big difference with the temps though either way it may feel the same. Euro has been much drier and its showing a few signs of moisture making it this far north. The gfs continues to have plenty of moisture thrown this way and the CMC is closer to the GFS this go around but not quite as wet.
Euro being correct leads to higher temps and the GFS leads to lower temps but higher humidity so both would feel about the same so I hope the GFS is correct and getting some decent rains does help down the road for any longer term heat.
The pattern for the summer at this point seems to be as predicted with some heat along with moisture from the south at times. If this continue yes we would have a rather normal summer though the overnight lows is really what has kept us above normal for years and this could continue for the upcoming summer.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 6:11 am
by tron777
Thanks Tim! I like your post also for next week. If we can get a good fetch of tropical moisture from the Gulf, then our temps will be knocked down a tad although very very humid! If the Euro is right then we are much hotter and drier as you mentioned. Let the games begin! It's just one of those wait and see situations. I do think that the Gulf will be active but the question is... does a storm form and if so, where does it go? If the storm gets strong enough, then I could see a situation where the ridging over us is stronger. But if it's a weaker system, then I think some of the moisture could get drawn up our way since the ridging to the north of the storm wouldn't be as strong.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 6:17 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 6:11 am
Thanks Tim! I like your post also for next week. If we can get a good fetch of tropical moisture from the Gulf, then our temps will be knocked down a tad although very very humid! If the Euro is right then we are much hotter and drier as you mentioned. Let the games begin! It's just one of those wait and see situations. I do think that the Gulf will be active but the question is... does a storm form and if so, where does it go? If the storm gets strong enough, then I could see a situation where the ridging over us is stronger. But if it's a weaker system, then I think some of the moisture could get drawn up our way since the ridging to the north of the storm wouldn't be as strong.
Perfect post Les and exactly the options you have laid out will determine the weather next week. My guess the A/C is coming on Thursday and will probably turn if off in September lol
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 6:11 am
Thanks Tim! I like your post also for next week. If we can get a good fetch of tropical moisture from the Gulf, then our temps will be knocked down a tad although very very humid! If the Euro is right then we are much hotter and drier as you mentioned. Let the games begin! It's just one of those wait and see situations. I do think that the Gulf will be active but the question is... does a storm form and if so, where does it go? If the storm gets strong enough, then I could see a situation where the ridging over us is stronger. But if it's a weaker system, then I think some of the moisture could get drawn up our way since the ridging to the north of the storm wouldn't be as strong.
Perfect post Les and exactly the options you have laid out will determine the weather next week. My guess the A/C is coming on Thursday and will probably turn if off in September lol
Mine's been on and will probably stay on until October.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 10:04 am
by tron777
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:08 pm
by tron777
76 with a dew of 45 as of 12pm at CVG. The last beautiful day before we start to turn up the heat. 12Z GFS is coming in and it still shows that small shower chance for Friday as well as the tropical moisture for next week. Speaking of next week... which model will blink first? The GFS, which is the solution we want, or the hotter and drier Euro? Guess we'll have to wait and see.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 3:07 pm
by tpweather
Good Afternoon and could we get the 90 degree contest underway Thursday. Not expecting 90 but maybe 89 is possible because of the really low humidity and plenty of sunshine. These tend to happen with the first wave of heat before the new pattern sets up. We will see of course but thought we should throw this out.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 5:20 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 3:07 pm
Good Afternoon and could we get the 90 degree contest underway Thursday. Not expecting 90 but maybe 89 is possible because of the really low humidity and plenty of sunshine. These tend to happen with the first wave of heat before the new pattern sets up. We will see of course but thought we should throw this out.
I'm going with an 89'ed for Thurs and the first legit 90+ coming on Father's Day. We should be able to put a string of 90s together going into next week.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 5:21 pm
by tron777
I hit 82 today... humidity is still well under control. For now...
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 3:07 pm
Good Afternoon and could we get the 90 degree contest underway Thursday. Not expecting 90 but maybe 89 is possible because of the really low humidity and plenty of sunshine. These tend to happen with the first wave of heat before the new pattern sets up. We will see of course but thought we should throw this out.
I'm going with an 89'ed for Thurs and the first legit 90+ coming on Father's Day. We should be able to put a string of 90s together going into next week.
Going to be interesting to see which way the pattern shapes up next week. If the Euro is correct some decent heat but lower humidity. Gfs correct much more moisture around so temps lower but dew points higher and it feels downright ugly unless you can get a nice shower or thundershower. Even if we get some tropical moisture really no severe weather except if you get a huge downpour in a short period of time. My guess by Friday the models will be closer on what should happen next week
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 3:07 pm
Good Afternoon and could we get the 90 degree contest underway Thursday. Not expecting 90 but maybe 89 is possible because of the really low humidity and plenty of sunshine. These tend to happen with the first wave of heat before the new pattern sets up. We will see of course but thought we should throw this out.
I'm going with an 89'ed for Thurs and the first legit 90+ coming on Father's Day. We should be able to put a string of 90s together going into next week.
Going to be interesting to see which way the pattern shapes up next week. If the Euro is correct some decent heat but lower humidity. Gfs correct much more moisture around so temps lower but dew points higher and it feels downright ugly unless you can get a nice shower or thundershower. Even if we get some tropical moisture really no severe weather except if you get a huge downpour in a short period of time. My guess by Friday the models will be closer on what should happen next week
I agree Tim. GEFS has a 591 DM ridge over us so upper 80s maybe 90 or so. EPS has the ridge stronger at 594 DM so you're looking at low to mid 90s. Still a bit of a model battle going on as of today.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:00 pm
by Bgoney
Louisville heat island effect in all its glory this morning. Most of that regions temps were in the 45-50 degree range, while the official inaccurate low of 56 will go in the books representing the region
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 6:11 am
Thanks Tim! I like your post also for next week. If we can get a good fetch of tropical moisture from the Gulf, then our temps will be knocked down a tad although very very humid! If the Euro is right then we are much hotter and drier as you mentioned. Let the games begin! It's just one of those wait and see situations. I do think that the Gulf will be active but the question is... does a storm form and if so, where does it go? If the storm gets strong enough, then I could see a situation where the ridging over us is stronger. But if it's a weaker system, then I think some of the moisture could get drawn up our way since the ridging to the north of the storm wouldn't be as strong.
Perfect post Les and exactly the options you have laid out will determine the weather next week. My guess the A/C is coming on Thursday and will probably turn if off in September lol
Mine's been on and will probably stay on until October.
I’ve had my windows open, trying to go as long as I can before firing the A/C back up. 78 degrees currently, 76 in the house. Might have to give up early to have a more comfortable sleep
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 12:11 am
by MVWxObserver
Both CVG / DAY got to 82 and CMH 83 on Wed.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 4:40 am
by tron777
Good morning all! No changes to the forecast guys. Upper 80s today and then the small rain chance tomorrow. Mid 80s Sat then the 90s will be here starting on Father's Day thru most of next week. GFS is still giving us a shot of daily t-storms with the tropical moisture next week. The model even a tropical system in the fantasy range too. That would be welcomed for the rain. Meanwhile the Euro has no rain after Friday and a 594-600 DM "Death Ridge" over us out thru Day 10. Come on GFS, no whammys, no whammys!
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 6:24 am
by tron777
CVG managed to slip down into the upper 50s before sunrise this morning. Might be the last time we see that for a while.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 6:59 am
by tpweather
Good Morning Les and again we still have the model wars and this time the CMC is on the same side as the GFS. We know last year the Euro had major problems in the summer with some crazy outcomes especially when it comes to high temps and if I remember correctly the model showed many days well above 100. I am not sure who is programming that model but we know they are climate crazy and though we got no where near those temps just throwing out that info folks remember it . Enough rant and lets talk about next week and I believe the first part of the week the GFS is more likely and temps in the 88-92 range through next Wednesday with chances of storms and if you happen to lucky temps will stay on the lower end. Then is the system well south in the western gulf gets it act together this is when ridging can become a bigger issue and chances for a few days inching towards the mid 90's is possible. Of course how much rain before will be a factor and one we can't put into the equation at this point. Either way its going to feel like summer and I guess this is why folks love fall so much lol
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 7:20 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 6:59 am
Good Morning Les and again we still have the model wars and this time the CMC is on the same side as the GFS. We know last year the Euro had major problems in the summer with some crazy outcomes especially when it comes to high temps and if I remember correctly the model showed many days well above 100. I am not sure who is programming that model but we know they are climate crazy and though we got no where near those temps just throwing out that info folks remember it . Enough rant and lets talk about next week and I believe the first part of the week the GFS is more likely and temps in the 88-92 range through next Wednesday with chances of storms and if you happen to lucky temps will stay on the lower end. Then is the system well south in the western gulf gets it act together this is when ridging can become a bigger issue and chances for a few days inching towards the mid 90's is possible. Of course how much rain before will be a factor and one we can't put into the equation at this point. Either way its going to feel like summer and I guess this is why folks love fall so much lol
Good morning Tim! The GFS last summer had some bouts of extreme heat that never materialized either, but to your point, the Euro was way too warm and that happened very frequently! Like in the winter, we know the GFS has a severe cold bias, well the Euro is like that in the summer time with too much warmth. Still rooting for the GFS because if the Euro is right, a flash drought could be in the cards before too long. We are already 1-3" down in the Tri-state area.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 7:46 am
by tpweather
I looked at the stats and for the year we are just about dead even on precip but to your point we are nearing 1.5 inches below for the month and sometimes its not the amounts that matter but when they occur. Rainfall in the April-June period is key and when you start getting dry in June especially after a decent amount of rain the previous months you are correct about the flash drought. One reason is the amount of vegetation is nice because of the decent rains earlier but if you turn off that faucet there is when we see the flash drought. If this occurs usually the only way to get out of that is a decent tropical system that dumps a good 2-4 inches are wise and no way to predict that at this moment
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 7:55 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 7:46 am
I looked at the stats and for the year we are just about dead even on precip but to your point we are nearing 1.5 inches below for the month and sometimes its not the amounts that matter but when they occur. Rainfall in the April-June period is key and when you start getting dry in June especially after a decent amount of rain the previous months you are correct about the flash drought. One reason is the amount of vegetation is nice because of the decent rains earlier but if you turn off that faucet there is when we see the flash drought. If this occurs usually the only way to get out of that is a decent tropical system that dumps a good 2-4 inches are wise and no way to predict that at this moment
Agreed Tim. The yearly stats are not indicative of anything IMO. We have wet periods and dry periods and you're exactly right. It is when those periods occur that make all the difference. Great post!
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 10:55 am
by Bgoney
What a stretch of weather, now I know what it’s like to work in Michigan for a summer.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 10:59 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 10:55 am
What a stretch of weather, now I know what it’s like to work in Michigan for a summer.
It's a shame that it has to come to an end lol
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 1:22 pm
by tron777
83 as of 1pm at CVG with a dew of 57. Humidity thankfully is still in check today. ILN has bumped us up to a 40% chance for t-storms late tonight and for tomorrow. Fingers crossed.... The heat and humidity still looks to get going from Sunday onwards. Still awaiting the model battle for POPS / temps to be resolved for next week. Anywhere from 90 to 95 is possible for highs depending on the strength of the ridge and if any tropical moisture from the Gulf can get involved.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 4:26 pm
by szystorm564
Currently 86 @ KPHN at the St.Clair County airport. Watching storms develop out west, probably going to see more formation within the next hour or two. Very windy at my house right now.
Re: June 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 4:32 pm
by szystorm564
Also just cranked on the A/C. Couldn’t hold out any longer.
It's just one of those wait and see situations. I do think that the Gulf will be active but the question is... does a storm form and if so, where does it go? If the storm gets strong enough, then I could see a situation where the ridging over us is stronger. But if it's a weaker system, then I think some of the moisture could get drawn up our way since the ridging to the north of the storm wouldn't be as strong.