Absolute Vorticity

Great Posts guys and I agree with Les on the chocolate pudding. Analogs are helpful but only when the same exact set up occurred in the past and that very seldom happens. The weather and climate are complex and the best model or met in the world will miss forecasts. How bad they are missed can be huge if you are someone whose livelihood counts on helpful seasonal forecast.

Speaking of pudding, I never cared for those things called pudding skins that stores used to sell. I remember from childhood Jell-O pudding pops. Also Snack Pack and Thank You pudding in cans before Snack Pack went to cups.

So possibly not until the 20th or 21st of Sept before something may develop that's meaningful in the ATL, sigh.

We may finally have something cooking in the S Gulf. A 60% chance of development in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The S Gulf wave now has an 80% chance to develop! We also have a wave out in the Atlantic that has a 509% chance. Maybe we'll see a little something as we approach the peak?

Les we know tropical systems have a mind of their own but where this one is located is usually one of the places that puts us in a better shot for some tropical rains. Of course with the dryness here and folks in southwest of us starting to see a very dry ground and the atmosphere will have plenty of dry air to overcome. The other ones in the Atlantic should cause no problems for us but still has a shot of getting near the east coast but that is well out in time. Cape Verde season has been somewhat different this season with plenty of rain near the equator but very dry north and south of that area. With the India/southeast Asia monsoon season winding down after a very busy summer hopefully this helps as well.

The wave out in the ATL now has a 60% chance in the next 5 days. The NHC may start issuing advisories on the S Gulf wave later today. An Airforce recon plane is expected to investigate.

Gfs so far looking better for the system in the GOM later this week. Again how far north can this system go before it runs into drier air.

OK here we go! Here's the pre-game.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM
TODAY...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 94.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 22.2N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/1800Z 23.0N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 10/0600Z 24.1N 95.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 26.8N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 28.5N 93.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.7N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0600Z 34.9N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$

Whether or not we get beneficial rains out this , the AI model has done very well with it’s development and track since early last week when no other model did. I didn’t think a hurricane was in the que until after mid month but looks like that is going to be wrong.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 7:27 am Whether or not we get beneficial rains out this , the AI model has done very well with it’s development and track since early last week when no other model did. I didn’t think a hurricane was in the que until after mid month but looks like that is going to be wrong.

Got to hand it to the AI as it said. I wonder if they made some tweaks? It did terrible with the tropics last year. Last winter it did too with the phantom cold waves. So far, anyway it has doe better as of late as you mentioned.

Say hello to TS Francine.


Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 95.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Yes we have something to talk about in the weather department. What have we noticed the last few days is the cone of where the system may go as ended up further west. This is not a surprise because if you look in the past at systems like this and ones that make it rather far north they tend to hit west of here in southern Indiana and western Ky or they head towards the apps mountains. Why and just of those things in weather that happens. Will this play out the same way and again a little early to get the exact track but what happens once it makes it into the Ohio Valley. Will this system sort of stall for a few days and ring out more rain which is what we need or will it slide to the east/northeast. No predictions yet from me and I have never had tons of luck with tropical systems.

Could be a strong Cat 1 IMO at landfall.

Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 96.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

NHC Intensity forecast has this thing at a Cat 2 now for max intensity.

I find it sort of funny that most folks at the NWS have shown the tropical system heading a little further east than it showed yesterday. I watch Kevin on Channel 5 tonight and he mentioned how the storm has moved further west since yesterday. I know he goes with the Euro but that model really has not moved at all with its path. I still believe it will be east of the location yesterday and I believe it really gets torn apart by the dry air but also a southwest wind which will move this thing further southeast. I may be dead wrong but some folks at the local NWS offices are still going sort of high on rain totals one being Louisville. Yes that first surge of rain can produce a quick 1/2-1 inch down there but after that I am not sold on much additional rain. Hopefully I am wrong and even folks locally can get in on some rainfall but the closer we get to the storm itself imo the less rain will be produced from this system

Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 94.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

The tropical wave furthest out in the ATL maybe our next named storm. An 80% chance of development over the next 5 days.

I sure pray and hope that both the Tri-state and Miami Valley can get into some much needed rainfall via Francine. Even areas north of I-70 like Greenville e.g. etc.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 7:08 am I sure pray and hope that both the Tri-state and Miami Valley can get into some much needed rainfall via Francine. Even areas north of I-70 like Greenville e.g. etc.

Not going to happen. Too much dry air. It will barely make it to Cincy and that's even a stretch,

----

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

TD 7 out in the ATL now. This one will likely become TS Gordon.

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES