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Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:05 pm
by tpweather
Les sometimes we lose a little on one threat of severe but gain on another. That could very well be the case here with the tornado threat lower but heavy rain higher. Still need to watch the sky and especially the radar in southwest Indiana and western Ky this afternoon as that is where an increase in the dews are happening
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:07 pm
by dce
This batch of storms is moving in and out so quickly I wonder if there won't still be time for more destabilization after this complex moves out?
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:11 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:05 pm
Les sometimes we lose a little on one threat of severe but gain on another. That could very well be the case here with the tornado threat lower but heavy rain higher. Still need to watch the sky and especially the radar in southwest Indiana and western Ky this afternoon as that is where an increase in the dews are happening
I am leaning this way right now also Tim. We should know the answer by 4 or 5pm I would think.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:11 pm
by Trevor
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Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:11 pm
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:07 pm
This batch of storms is moving in and out so quickly I wonder if there won't still be time for more destabilization after this complex moves out?
Something to watch for sure Doug... need to just wait and see at this point.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:12 pm
by tpweather
dce wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:07 pm
This batch of storms is moving in and out so quickly I wonder if there won't still be time for more destabilization after this complex moves out?
Hey Doug I am watching the area in southwest Indiana and western Ky as that area may be prime to form some tornado's and they could be the long lasting kind. Changes happening quickly so that is the area I am watching the next few hours but in the meantime expect rounds of heavy rain
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:13 pm
by Bgoney
dce wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:07 pm
This batch of storms is moving in and out so quickly I wonder if there won't still be time for more destabilization after this complex moves out?
I think with this batch developing a bit sooner than expected and no cape, that’s exactly where the focus will shift. How much destabilization do we reach late this afternoon
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:17 pm
by MVWxObserver
63 here in G'ville with a DP of 63.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:25 pm
by tpweather
Tornado watch in southwest In and western Ky where the conditions are getting better for development. Interesting to see the next few hours
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:26 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:25 pm
Tornado watch in southwest In and western Ky where the conditions are getting better for development. Interesting to see the next few hours
There is some clearing behind this next incoming batch. CAPE of 500 J/KG is currently pooling immediately ahead of the cold front over Central ILL. We may see some action with the cold front itself. This is definitely an ever changing / evolving weather situation that is going to change hour by hour.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:28 pm
by dce
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:25 pm
Tornado watch in southwest In and western Ky where the conditions are getting better for development. Interesting to see the next few hours
As this batch of rain looks to quickly pass through the area I wonder if those atmospheric conditions in Kentucky and Indiana will quickly head into our area before the front moved through or will the best cape and more ripe conditions stay south. As Bgoney pointed out, that is now the question.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:31 pm
by tron777
Getting another t-storm in Mason right now.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:32 pm
by Bgoney
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:33 pm
by tpweather
Current conditions here is light rain with thunder once in awhile. Expect this over the next few hours and then lets see what happens.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:34 pm
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:32 pmIMG_1647.jpeg
That seems correct Bgoney and I noticed the conditions a few hours ago and thought this was a good breeding place
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:35 pm
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:28 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:25 pm
Tornado watch in southwest In and western Ky where the conditions are getting better for development. Interesting to see the next few hours
As this batch of rain looks to quickly pass through the area I wonder if those atmospheric conditions in Kentucky and Indiana will quickly head into our area before the front moved through or will the best cape and more ripe conditions stay south. As Bgoney pointed out, that is now the question.
Helicity over SW IN and West KY is very very good as well as wind shear. If we can somehow manage to get 500 to 1000 J/KG of CAPE in here, then IMO it is game on! We will know that answer in just a few more short hours.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:38 pm
by Bgoney
Low slowly moving into central Illinois and strengthening
IMG_1648.jpeg
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:48 pm
by MJSun
Thunder/rain again in Norwood
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:51 pm
by tpweather
Looks like we have this batch coming through by 3pm and then we have a nice area with nothing going on until you are northwest of Paducah where a nice line of storms are starting to form. That should be with the front itself and lets see how that progresses this afternoon as dews and temps are rising in southern Indiana and western Ky
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:53 pm
by Bgoney
Another clearing area poised to move back in our area later this afternoon
IMG_1649.jpeg
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:05 pm
by tpweather
Still jealous of my son who has 32 degrees and snow at the moment.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:06 pm
by tpweather
Louisville up 7 degrees since last hour. Seeing the nice rebound of the rain stops
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:23 pm
by tpweather
Raining harder than anytime today as this batch is starting to leave the area. Recovery is on the way west of here and it seems the atmosphere will be able to recover enough to see some strong if not severe storms later today.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:27 pm
by tron777
Last batch is moving thru the region now. We have plenty of dynamics with a strengthening low / cold front and we will not need much CAPE for severe wx. With the slow movement of the front, I am very curious to see how much recovery we can get. Keep your guards up until we know that answer.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:31 pm
by MJSun
Are we still thinking high risk or tornadoes or more severe thunderstorms instead?