Absolute Vorticity

BG StormTalk!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:26 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:50 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:35 am

I'll be mowing in the next week or two if we don't get some cooler temps to slow things down. It's been quite a few years since spring has shown up so early.

It’ll help slow it down, a tiny bit but the process has begun since the last 10 days of Feb. and that’s that . A good 2 weeks ahead and close to 3 in spots



IMG_1548.png

Definitely thinking 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule for sure IMBY. Could be early morel mushroom hunting this year too. Normally April is prime time and some years very early in May, but I am already seeing reports of a few folks finding them in SKY near the TN border. This is extremely early!

Mushrooms and yes we know there is some that can give you quite the high. The mushrooms that many rock groups and counter culture did back then was to give you a high like LSD. I never tried mushrooms but LSD and PCP were very popular back then which turn the mid-70's into sort of a blur for me. Lucky I realized that could not continue and was done with that before I graduated.

LOL! You definitely need to do your homework so you harvest and eat the right kind. Morel's are tough to find and are extremely expensive in a store as a result,. They are very tough to grow. I've tried!

Hey Les I did eat out the Tousey House in Burlington a couple of weeks ago and had mushrooms. Not sure what kind and they were good but not great. Food is really good and had a gift card so that is always nice.

I'd like to discuss the longer term for a moment, but what happens there, will depend on the medium range. I have high confidence in getting rain and tstorms for Thurs and Fri. I believe Sat is dry. For Sunday on into early next week, that is the longer term portion of the forecast that has very low confidence. When does the energy come out of the SW US? If it gets cut off, no storm. Too early and it's a warm and wet rain storm. Too late and it would probably form too late to impact us. So as always, the timing of the energy getting ejected from the SW US is critical. Sometime Sunday and Monday, if the timing is right, I expect a wintry type system to develop. We saw what can happen with the proper timing on the 12Z Euro from yesterday afternoon as an example. The energy needs to come out on the 17th if we are going to see anything occur with this system so this is something I will be watching as this week goes on. Today's new 12Z GFS run took a step towards that Euro solution from yesterday but still more work needs to be done if we will see anything occur here.

Until we get there, we will be tracking showers and t-storms for Thurs and Fri. Not sure if the timing will be right for severe storms, but this is also something that we will need to keep an eye on also once we get closer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:38 am Hey Les I did eat out the Tousey House in Burlington a couple of weeks ago and had mushrooms. Not sure what kind and they were good but not great. Food is really good and had a gift card so that is always nice.

We have eaten there several times too. Mom took my Brother and I out for dinner there last week in fact. Always have great food there. It's usually busy so we always make a reservation prior to going. Washington Square is good too, especially for breakfast if you have never tried that one, you should! It's right next to the Tousey House.

The GFS was close! We need the SW US energy to come out about 6 hours or so faster and then bang! The 12Z CMC cut off the energy over the SW US so no storm whatsoever. Just cold and dry. Watching the Ensembles should make things a bit more interesting down the road. I hope to see more of the members catching on. The pattern definitely supports the idea. It's just going to be a matter of timing like it always is for us.

Definitely a lot of timing issues to resolve if you look at the 12Z GEFS members. Most of the issues are because the energy gets held back a bit too late in the SW so the Apps get the snow instead of us.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:08 pm Definitely a lot of timing issues to resolve if you look at the 12Z GEFS members. Most of the issues are because the energy gets held back a bit too late in the SW so the Apps get the snow instead of us.

Les at least some action next week. Heading to Wisconsin later in the week but waiting to see how the system or systems play out. Should be up there for 3-4 days and again had snow in October and the last time I was up there so hopefully I will see that happen again. Got a feeling its going to be cold up there no matter what happens. They have been so mild and the business that deal with weather had a horrible season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:08 pm Definitely a lot of timing issues to resolve if you look at the 12Z GEFS members. Most of the issues are because the energy gets held back a bit too late in the SW so the Apps get the snow instead of us.

Les at least some action next week. Heading to Wisconsin later in the week but waiting to see how the system or systems play out. Should be up there for 3-4 days and again had snow in October and the last time I was up there so hopefully I will see that happen again. Got a feeling its going to be cold up there no matter what happens. They have been so mild and the business that deal with weather had a horrible season.

Will you be here or in Wisc during the Sunday - Tuesday period? Just wondering...

12Z Euro keeps the energy cut off over Mexico so nothing. But wow... the northern stream is a huge upper low! This could be a really nice last gasp of winter system for somebody if the energy comes out of the SW on time and does not get held back.

Low of 24, high and current temp of 57 here and at CVG... wow! What sunshine and dry air will do for you.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:26 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:50 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:35 am

I'll be mowing in the next week or two if we don't get some cooler temps to slow things down. It's been quite a few years since spring has shown up so early.

It’ll help slow it down, a tiny bit but the process has begun since the last 10 days of Feb. and that’s that . A good 2 weeks ahead and close to 3 in spots



IMG_1548.png

Definitely thinking 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule for sure IMBY. Could be early morel mushroom hunting this year too. Normally April is prime time and some years very early in May, but I am already seeing reports of a few folks finding them in SKY near the TN border. This is extremely early!

Mushrooms and yes we know there is some that can give you quite the high. The mushrooms that many rock groups and counter culture did back then was to give you a high like LSD. I never tried mushrooms but LSD and PCP were very popular back then which turn the mid-70's into sort of a blur for me. Lucky I realized that could not continue and was done with that before I graduated.

LOL! You definitely need to do your homework so you harvest and eat the right kind. Morel's are tough to find and are extremely expensive in a store as a result,. They are very tough to grow. I've tried!

My folks and I have a friend from a church we went to in NC who, thankfully, survived an episode of poisonous mushrooms several years ago. She and her husband are natives of Aurora, IN.

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

CVG reached 57, DAY 56 and CMH 54 today.

18Z GFS is oh so close again!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:26 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:08 pm Definitely a lot of timing issues to resolve if you look at the 12Z GEFS members. Most of the issues are because the energy gets held back a bit too late in the SW so the Apps get the snow instead of us.

Les at least some action next week. Heading to Wisconsin later in the week but waiting to see how the system or systems play out. Should be up there for 3-4 days and again had snow in October and the last time I was up there so hopefully I will see that happen again. Got a feeling its going to be cold up there no matter what happens. They have been so mild and the business that deal with weather had a horrible season.

Will you be here or in Wisc during the Sunday - Tuesday period? Just wondering...

Hey Les the time period will be the 21st-26th probably. So no doubt later this week I will have interest here and also in Wisconsin.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:26 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:08 pm Definitely a lot of timing issues to resolve if you look at the 12Z GEFS members. Most of the issues are because the energy gets held back a bit too late in the SW so the Apps get the snow instead of us.

Les at least some action next week. Heading to Wisconsin later in the week but waiting to see how the system or systems play out. Should be up there for 3-4 days and again had snow in October and the last time I was up there so hopefully I will see that happen again. Got a feeling its going to be cold up there no matter what happens. They have been so mild and the business that deal with weather had a horrible season.

Will you be here or in Wisc during the Sunday - Tuesday period? Just wondering...

Hey Les the time period will be the 21st-26th probably. So no doubt later this week I will have interest here and also in Wisconsin.

I agree Tim. There will be two more chances for snow then it's over (for us down here anyway). The Sun thru Tues period upcoming and then the shot of cold air may even be more impressive with the later time period you mentioned. The overnight guidance is holding the energy back in the SW so hopefully that changes. If not, the first chance will be dead.

Meanwhile until we get there, delightful weather today and tomorrow then scattered rain / storms Thurs with a better shot on Friday. Any severe wx thus far should remain to our West on Thurs per SPC.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

So far, I agree due to bad frontal timing. We'll get the leftovers as usual.

Unless something changes , our cool down the second half of the month will be dryer than normal with the NWflow. 3 or 4 days of below normal temps , then a prolonged period of near normal

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:13 am Unless something changes , our cool down the second half of the month will be dryer than normal with the NWflow. 3 or 4 days of below normal temps , then a prolonged period of near normal

I agree though that is not all bad. The south central states should do well and that is always good this time of year because this is their rainy season. Of course the rainy season moves north over the next 3 months until we reach summer. The southeast and much of the east coast has been wet this winter including Florida. The most concerning area imo has been the central plains. Hopefully this area starts getting in on the action later in April and early May as that becomes their rainy season and also severe season before summer sets in.

So far this year and also in March we are about 20p/c above normal in rainfall but again the next 3 months are so important in regards to short term droughts. Just getting 1 inch of rain each week for the next 12 weeks would be perfect but of course we do not live in perfect world

I also agree. The GEFS does show below avg precip until we get towards the end of the month when it shows above avg finally, EPS also below avg with precip getting closer to normal towards months end. Even with the cooler temps upcoming... I am still going to have to mow in March this year. I just don't see anyway of avoiding it. My first mowing last year wasn't until April 7th. It's been several years since I've had to mow in March but this is certainly looking like one of those years. Grass is greening up and continuing to grow with the nice temps. Rainfall has been about perfect thus far in March but we look to go below avg for the month if the drier 2nd half of the month idea pans out. Since it will be cooler and the Gulf not really being open for business (unless we get a phased system) that is what things are looking like. I do think that we warm up and turn active again for early April so for you severe wx lovers, we should be getting some more trackable systems by then.

Speaking of rain, the amounts with our Thurs / Fri system this week, aren't looking too impressive for us. North of us, and South of us, should be able to get into that 0.50 to 1" range. Bad frontal timing for us so some folks may be in the 0.25 or less range locally. It's just going to depend on how quickly the storms to our West weaken on Thurs and how much re-development can we get on Friday? The timing of the frontal passage on Friday, currently is looking like a late morning, midday, to early afternoon period. That is not good for folks wanting some decent rains.

Went on my walk yesterday and finally see some nice buds on the trees. Grass is turning green and growing in spots so Les I believe you will need to mow in March just to shape it up. I will probably go to my daughter's house and mow the yard in the next week before heading to Wisconsin. Hopefully late this week we can get .5-1.0 inches of rainfall and then maybe another round of rain later Sunday as the colder air pushes in. I believe the models are picking up on the lack of snow cover in the northern plains and each day that passes the cold is not as extreme. When the snow cover is heavy in those areas the models tend to be to warm until it catches on to the snow cover.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:54 am Went on my walk yesterday and finally see some nice buds on the trees. Grass is turning green and growing in spots so Les I believe you will need to mow in March just to shape it up. I will probably go to my daughter's house and mow the yard in the next week before heading to Wisconsin. Hopefully late this week we can get .5-1.0 inches of rainfall and then maybe another round of rain later Sunday as the colder air pushes in. I believe the models are picking up on the lack of snow cover in the northern plains and each day that passes the cold is not as extreme. When the snow cover is heavy in those areas the models tend to be to warm until it catches on to the snow cover.

The upcoming blocking episode also does not look as intense as it once did so that may also be a contributing factor. We'll see how it goes like we always do lol I just don't care for the timing of the front on Fri so IMO Thurs will be scattered with the best chances off to our West. For Friday, best chances are East due to the front passing early in the day. As always in weather, bad timing usually never gives us the weather that we want.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:02 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:54 am Went on my walk yesterday and finally see some nice buds on the trees. Grass is turning green and growing in spots so Les I believe you will need to mow in March just to shape it up. I will probably go to my daughter's house and mow the yard in the next week before heading to Wisconsin. Hopefully late this week we can get .5-1.0 inches of rainfall and then maybe another round of rain later Sunday as the colder air pushes in. I believe the models are picking up on the lack of snow cover in the northern plains and each day that passes the cold is not as extreme. When the snow cover is heavy in those areas the models tend to be to warm until it catches on to the snow cover.

The upcoming blocking episode also does not look as intense as it once did so that may also be a contributing factor. We'll see how it goes like we always do lol I just don't care for the timing of the front on Fri so IMO Thurs will be scattered with the best chances off to our West. For Friday, best chances are East due to the front passing early in the day. As always in weather, bad timing usually never gives us the weather that we want.

I agree Les and the NAO and AO look more neutral than before so systems will be able to sweep through for the most part.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:02 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:54 am Went on my walk yesterday and finally see some nice buds on the trees. Grass is turning green and growing in spots so Les I believe you will need to mow in March just to shape it up. I will probably go to my daughter's house and mow the yard in the next week before heading to Wisconsin. Hopefully late this week we can get .5-1.0 inches of rainfall and then maybe another round of rain later Sunday as the colder air pushes in. I believe the models are picking up on the lack of snow cover in the northern plains and each day that passes the cold is not as extreme. When the snow cover is heavy in those areas the models tend to be to warm until it catches on to the snow cover.

The upcoming blocking episode also does not look as intense as it once did so that may also be a contributing factor. We'll see how it goes like we always do lol I just don't care for the timing of the front on Fri so IMO Thurs will be scattered with the best chances off to our West. For Friday, best chances are East due to the front passing early in the day. As always in weather, bad timing usually never gives us the weather that we want.

I agree Les and the NAO and AO look more neutral than before so systems will be able to sweep through for the most part.

Yep, exactly. Probably another reason why we are seeing models keep the energy over the SW instead of bringing it out and phasing it. In fact, the AO and NAO are forecast to rise back into positive territory over the next week to 10 days per CPC's website which uses the GFS Ensemble for those calculations.