February 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Sad. I think I have a cooler in my barn that might hold the Great Lakes ice totals



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Or the ice build up in my little garage freezer!

[Bgoney]

Westerlies forecast to hold near the dateline for a while longer

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[tron777]

Number 3 and 9 look good on 18Z GEFS.

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[tron777]

The boys are starting to talk:

The upper level trough will shift east across the CONUS through the
first part of next week. Mid level energy moving through the base of
the trough will lead to a developing low pressure system over the
Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday.
This low will continue to deepen as it lifts northeast to the mid
Atlantic Coast through Tuesday. There remain some model
timing/placement/strength differences with this system so will
continue to trend the forecast based on the GFS/ECMWF ensemble
means. Will go ahead and nudge pops up into likely category across
our southeast and high chance pops for much of the rest of the area
on Monday and then linger chance pops for Monday night into Tuesday.
Thermal profiles will continue to cool Sunday into Tuesday with a
transition zone from mainly rain across our southeast to mainly snow
across our northwest likely setting up across our area. Depending on
the exact track of the system, some light snow accumulations may be
possible later Monday into Tuesday morning. Highs Monday through
Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s with overnight lows
mostly in the mid to upper 20s.

[Trevor]

Re: Mon/Tue system—One thing that could help it track further south is if the lead low on Saturday is stronger. That would help set the tracks for the next system to track further south. The Mon/Tue system also needs to not deepen too much. The stronger it gets the further north it will cut. I favor areas north currently for accumulating snow but we need to watch it closely as we are still within the zone of uncertainty. We can narrow the goal posts within the next couple of days hopefully.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 58, DAY 57 and CMH 55 today.

[Trevor]

00z GFS says what cool down? While that is likely overdone and not the final result, it is further evidence that a true, sustained wintry pattern is going to be hard to achieve. Best advice would be to hope we can take advantage of any cold pushes we have, however brief it is. Because other than that, prospects for snow lovers don’t look all that great. A phased storm with a perfect track or snow showers behind storms/cold fronts are about our only options at this point…and one of those options is very tough to achieve and I’m sure you know which one

[Trevor]

00z GFS ensemble isn’t finished yet but I can guarantee it will come in cooler than the deterministic run. For the long range it’s probably best to blend deterministics and ensembles…with a bit more weight on the ensembles.

[Trevor]

As expected, the ensemble is much cooler than the deterministic. This is a more realistic temperature regime IMO, but I do think it is missing on some peaks and lows that will happen. I could definitely see some days in the 60s and some in the 30s down the road with an active storm track.

[tron777]

In addition to the above, the GEFS and EPS are also further SE with the low track for early next week versus the OP runs.

[Bgoney]

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[Trevor]

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Talk about a torch! Well above normal in areas that should be seeing some of the coldest air in the country this time of year. That’s a strong El Nino for ya..

[tron777]

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Talk about a torch! Well above normal in areas that should be seeing some of the coldest air in the country this time of year. That’s a strong El Nino for ya..

60+ for us today and tomorrow. Get out your flip flops.... well briefly anyway.

[Bgoney]

Feel bad for the Midwest/plains . Upcoming pattern is dryer than normal for them . So a big chunk of that area won’t be adding a whole lot of snow. Pouring rain atm in Minnesota. Northern half of the OV will also average below normal in precip

[Trevor]

Feel bad for the Midwest/plains . Upcoming pattern is dryer than normal for them . So a big chunk of that area won’t be adding a whole lot of snow. Pouring rain atm in Minnesota. Northern half of the OV will also average below normal in precip

Both the Midwest and Plains typically have a quieter severe weather season as well during El Niños so they may not get a ton of help in the Spring either.

[Trevor]

06z GFS shows a Cincy bullseye for the Mon/Tue system but temps are garbage so it’d be a very wet snow with melting. We need a better phase to bring in colder air.

[tron777]

06z GFS shows a Cincy bullseye for the Mon/Tue system but temps are garbage so it’d be a very wet snow with melting. We need a better phase the bring in colder air.

Just waiting to see what the models decide with regards to the storm track so we can try and forecast where the area of better snows will be.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a little sore after playing golf. Weather was wonderful and golf was not great but not bad either for a 3 month layoff. Back to the weather and at least we are getting busy finally. A few showers later today and early Friday and then Friday itself looks nice and warm and can we get to 65 and that is possible. Later Friday and Saturday a few more showers but again not much in terms of total rainfall but no doubt colder air will start to enter the picture finally.

Concerning the system on Monday and Tuesday. First of all the ground will be well above 32 so we are going to need heavier rates to have any snow to accumulate. Next question of course will there be any snow. The track of the system is important but also the storm itself will need to produce much of the cold air has we wait until later next week when arctic air starts to enter the area. This is no doubt a system you don't pin your forecast on one model run because the temps are so critical and my guess they will change quite often especially the GFS.

Will talk more about the extended later today but I have no changes to the forecast as I believe the arctic air will be located in the eastern USA for an extended period. By the time this Saturday ends we should average 10 degrees above average this month and I believe the second half of February we will be nearly 10 degrees below average and yes this would have temps many days in the mid-upper 30's for highs and yes some days milder in the 40's but I expect some days colder with highs in the 20's.

I still expect and early start to spring and by the second week of March but I know there are rumblings of the cold extending longer and I am not sold on this and will need to look at that in more detail.

[tron777]

The latest thinking from the boys for early next week:


A deeper H5 trough carves its way into the Midwest region late
Sunday into Monday. This will usher in a colder air mass, along
with providing chances for some frozen precip to mix in starting
Sunday night, mainly for our northern counties. Temps still
remain in the upper 40s across our far south on Monday, so not
expecting much snow to mix in there until Monday night. There is
a reasonable signal for accumulating snowfall Monday night,
especially for counties along/NW of I-71. Keeping mention out of
HWO until guidance becomes clearer on track/intensity of the
low pressure system.

[Bgoney]

Sunrise is a doozy

[tpweather]

Sunrise is a doozy

Yes it is. Love those kind of colors in the sky. BTW a few weeks ago did everyone see the rainbow or double rainbow in the local area. It was so vivid and beautiful and I was trying to follow it to get the gold but missed out once again

[tron777]

Sunrise is a doozy

Yes it is. Love those kind of colors in the sky. BTW a few weeks ago did everyone see the rainbow or double rainbow in the local area. It was so vivid and beautiful and I was trying to follow it to get the gold but missed out once again

I saw some pics posted online. It really was a sight to behold!

[tron777]

CVG is already up to 51 degrees. Today will be an overachiever temp wise. Tomorrow probably as well.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is much slower with this system bringing in some rain Mon night changing to snow for early Tues morning. Track is good as we get the deformation zone snow.

[Trevor]

CVG is already up to 51 degrees. Today will be an overachiever temp wise. Tomorrow probably as well.

This was my update from yesterday morning. I debated going 65 for Friday but held with 63. A SSW wind will almost always lead to overachieving temps especially this time of year without huge amounts of deep moisture keeping temps in check.