Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:49 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:35 am Based on current radar and satellite pics, I think the stronger / more juicy solutions we are seeing are going to be correct. We'll see what the rest of the data shows today, but as of now, I'm pretty excited about what I am seeing. Trev... where are you? You've been all over these higher amounts and I am seeing a lot of data now to support it.

Looking over 12z then will have a new map.

Sounds good! I like that 2-4" range now for the Metro / NKY. Just my 2 cents. We'll see what the RGEM and GooFuS show shortly.

Yup! I was leaning toward 2-4 after 06z and 12z is confirming the juicer trend.

I concur my friend.

This system is overperforming down in NW AR. Seeing 2-3" reports already coming out of Fayetteville!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:28 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:03 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:57 am Should we expect a winter storm warning?

I'm guessing Winter Weather Advisory. Temps will be marginal. ILN is historically reluctant to go with a warning. Most of the time they start out with an Advisory and upgrade to a warning if necessary. I think an Advisory to start out fits this storm perfectly.

I agree with this. I think an advisory will cover it. Speaking of temps... I am glad that you brought that up, Cincinnati. I had 19 this morning and CVG had 22. We are only at 27 as of 10am at CVG and with increasing clouds... we will probably not even make it to 40 today so that may help us out a bit in terms of ground temps.

I am on my lunch hour so I was able to look at Accuwx Pro for the 12Z NAM run. 0.54" of QPF at CVG so we did get NAM'ed as I thought.

HAO - 0.44"
MGY - 0.33"
DAY - 0.22"
CMH - 0.23"

FGX for Matt - A whopping 0.75" but a lot of that is going to be rain unfortunately. This is using the NAM. You are in a good spot on some of the other models though.

I have come to accept the cold rain as a beloved part of my life.

We have been NAMed!

QPF on the 12Z GFS ranges from about 0.15" S of I-70 to 1/2" in our SE. Eyeballing 0.25 to 0.30" for CVG.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:42 am I have come to accept the cold rain as a beloved part of my life.

Glad the sun is out today even though it won't last long. They are out brining the roadways up here as I'm sure they are everywhere.

MD issued for heavy snow in Central KS this afternoon. 1" per hour rates expected.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0002.html

12Z GFS text data is finally in.

CVG - 0.23"
HAO - 0.18"
MGY - 0.16"
DAY - 0.11"
CMH - 0.12"
FGX - 0.49" - Looks like some rain, sleet, and snow.

There is additional light precip for everyone on Sunday too from the next piece of energy swinging thru behind the EC storm don't forget. I am mainly focusing on Sat morning since that is the best window for accumulating snowfall.

Update from the boys....

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
Previous forecast over the near term remains on track. 12Z ILN
RAOB once again observed a very dry lower troposphere with
copious amounts of dry air below 500mb. High level clouds have
stretched over the area with better saturation observed above
500 mb.

Snow forecast updates will arrive later today...
Recent trends in the guidance are pointing toward higher QPF
over locations along and southeast of the I-71 corridor.
Potential is certainly increasing for a focused area of
accumulating snow 1-2" (locally higher amounts) across southern
Ohio and northern Kentucky Saturday morning. Precipitation type
and surface temperatures with heavier precipitation rates tend
to remain as snow with lower surface temperatures, especially
with the onset of precipitation occurring before sunrise. Wet,
sticky dendrites would be capable of accumulating quickly, as
long as precipitation rates remain moderate. An advisory is
being considered for portions of northern Kentucky and southern
Ohio, with accumulating snow potentially leading to travel
impacts Saturday morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:39 am This system is overperforming down in NW AR. Seeing 2-3" reports already coming out of Fayetteville!

The GFS is showing rain in NW Arkansas. Less than an inch of snow. This model is off from the beginning. The short range models are definitely the way to go in my opinion.

Update...

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:39 am This system is overperforming down in NW AR. Seeing 2-3" reports already coming out of Fayetteville!

The GFS is showing rain in NW Arkansas. Less than an inch of snow. This model is off from the beginning. The short range models are definitely the way to go in my opinion.

I agree Doug. I am going with 2-4" now instead of 1-2" that I mentioned yesterday, For I-70 folks... I think 1-2" looks good.

Looks good Trev!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:25 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:39 am This system is overperforming down in NW AR. Seeing 2-3" reports already coming out of Fayetteville!

The GFS is showing rain in NW Arkansas. Less than an inch of snow. This model is off from the beginning. The short range models are definitely the way to go in my opinion.

I agree Doug. I am going with 2-4" now instead of 1-2" that I mentioned yesterday, For I-70 folks... I think 1-2" looks good.

just curious what are you thinking for my area?

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:25 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:39 am This system is overperforming down in NW AR. Seeing 2-3" reports already coming out of Fayetteville!

The GFS is showing rain in NW Arkansas. Less than an inch of snow. This model is off from the beginning. The short range models are definitely the way to go in my opinion.

I agree Doug. I am going with 2-4" now instead of 1-2" that I mentioned yesterday, For I-70 folks... I think 1-2" looks good.

just curious what are you thinking for my area?

I meant to answer that yesterday Charles but I forget where exactly you are in PA!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:28 am Looks good Trev!

Advisories will be out with the afternoon package. Some areas will hit warning criteria.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:28 am Looks good Trev!

Advisories will be out with the afternoon package. Some areas will hit warning criteria.

I think an advisory is good personally.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:33 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:28 am Looks good Trev!

Advisories will be out with the afternoon package. Some areas will hit warning criteria.

I think an advisory is good personally.

Right that is what they will go with as that should cover it for most in the heavier band. What I meant is that I expect some areas to receive warning-criteria amounts. It'll be isolated, but I expect some 5" reports.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:25 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:39 am This system is overperforming down in NW AR. Seeing 2-3" reports already coming out of Fayetteville!

The GFS is showing rain in NW Arkansas. Less than an inch of snow. This model is off from the beginning. The short range models are definitely the way to go in my opinion.

I agree Doug. I am going with 2-4" now instead of 1-2" that I mentioned yesterday, For I-70 folks... I think 1-2" looks good.

just curious what are you thinking for my area?

I meant to answer that yesterday Charles but I forget where exactly you are in PA!

I think it's Monroe Co, right Charles??? The more inland you are and NW of I-95, the better. I think it's mainly a rain event for the I-95 corridor. NWS Mt Holly has 6-10" for Monroe Co per their latest AFD.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:33 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:28 am Looks good Trev!

Advisories will be out with the afternoon package. Some areas will hit warning criteria.

I think an advisory is good personally.

Right that is what they will go with as that should cover it for most in the heavier band. What I meant is that I expect some areas to receive warning-criteria amounts. It'll be isolated, but I expect some 5" reports.

I got what you meant. I was just giving my own personal opinion.

SPC's severe wx outlook just updated and there is now a marginal risk of severe wx right along the Gulf Coast. This tells me that this system is going to have a kick.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:37 am SPC's severe wx outlook just updated and there is now a marginal risk of severe wx right along the Gulf Coast. This tells me that this system is going to have a kick.

Indeed! Good obs sir.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:35 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:25 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:00 am

The GFS is showing rain in NW Arkansas. Less than an inch of snow. This model is off from the beginning. The short range models are definitely the way to go in my opinion.

I agree Doug. I am going with 2-4" now instead of 1-2" that I mentioned yesterday, For I-70 folks... I think 1-2" looks good.

just curious what are you thinking for my area?

I meant to answer that yesterday Charles but I forget where exactly you are in PA!

I think it's Monroe Co, right Charles??? The more inland you are and NW of I-95, the better. I think it's mainly a rain event for the I-95 corridor. NWS Mt Holly has 6-10" for Monroe Co per their latest AFD.

Yes. southern Monroe. you remembered. thanks

Good Afternoon and I see Les and Trevor are saying go big or go home lol. Locally I am still going 1-2 with 1.8 at CVG so I am on the higher end. I can see where we get the higher totals but have not convinced myself that is the way to go. Biggest issues is dry air at the start of the storm and do we have a 3hour period or 6hour period of snow that comes down hard enough to accumulate. Temp though looks decent around the 30-33 mark locally and that is a plus.

I do believe an advisory will be issued and my guess is they will go 1-3. Trev this has been your storm so time to bring to the finish line lol.