Absolute Vorticity

We talk about the MJO often on here and no doubt it is a nice tool to use for longer term forecasts. We just came out of the colder phase 8 last week and headed into the COD. The MJO at first seemed to show a steady trek towards the warmer phases of 4 and 5 which we saw so much last season. The most recent runs have stopped the progression to those phases and seems to heading to phase 6. Yes phase 6 is a warm phase but if that pattern continues it should then go into phase 7 and then phase 8. Again the mjo is not really strong but can give clues to what we may see over the next few weeks. Next week should be mild and maybe a few degrees above normal as we head into phase 6. Then we should go into phase 7 which is a phase where you tend to get stormier plus the phase that is the go between milder air and colder air. When these phases are stronger you will see a longer period of a certain type of weather but when the MJO is weaker it usually moves quicker and you get the back and forth weather that looks to happen over the next few weeks.

Tim... you can definitely tell a pattern change is in the works. We know the operational models flip flop with each run, but even the Ensemble guidance is doing so as well. 0Z GEFS had ridging the week of Thanksgiving and the 6Z run had a trough as one example. The one thing we do know is a more active pattern is coming and I think it'll mainly be rain at the start of it. I'm still watching though late this month into early Dec for a possible shot of cold before we warm up again. That has been my thought for a while and see no reason to change it at this time since it's a ways out still. Thru Thanksgiving anyway, I'd go with rain / t-storm makers right now.

Sunny skies now IMBY. 48 as of 8am so 60 shouldn't be a problem this afternoon. Not a bad day at all once the clouds move out (for SE Crew posters)

6Z GFS says “deficit, what deficit??”

Likely overdone, but it fits our narrative of a change to a wetter pattern later this month.

Yeah, there is definitely some convective feedback showing up there.

Good Afternoon and a wonderful day for mid-November. Normally the second busy season runs normally from mid-Oct - early Dec. This is the period that winter will try and sneak in and summer will not give up. A little tease of winter late last month and of course record or near record highs a few day ago. Usually when you see those kind of highs severe weather outbreaks occur. Not this year as the two jets are so far apart they were unable to meet. That should change the week of Nov 20th. So I would expect a nice warming period next weekend followed by some decent rains and maybe some severe weather. Then we should see the cool down and maybe just maybe a few flakes of snow sometime during the Thanksgiving weekend. Will the storminess continue into early December and at this time models are saying most likely but will this be in the form of more severe weather or can we introduce more winter weather into the pattern. At this point the back and forth between mild and cold seems the way to go until we have more information and what the PV may be doing. The PV got strong really quick over the past week or so but seems to have leveled off and spread out. You can see this by how temps did make a nice fall in the polar regions that has slowed down which tells me the PV is not quite the strength it was or fanning out to encompass more area which is usually a sign of some weakening. Could it get itself back together to form a really strong PV and sure but not really seeing that at the moment.

I agree Tim... there is a nice signal for a rain / t-storms ending as a few flakes type of deal near Thanksgiving. Maybe a little before? Maybe after? Depending on the timing which is tough to nail down this far out.

12Z GEFS is looking decent for a below avg temp pattern post 11/20 and potentially active too. You can see the PV stretching a bit and some very nice ridging along the West coast of the US all the way up to Alaska! A very nice look on the Pacific side. The NAO looks neutral at best maybe even slightly positive but I'll take the look it is showing for the Pacific all day long. The GEPS or Canadian Ens is even colder! Now I did post earlier that the ensemble guidance has been changing from run to run so let's not bite on this just yet. We have plenty of time to monitor the trends to see if this is real or BS.

The MJO may finally be coming out of the neutral circle here shortly albeit in weak phases. Current forecast models on the CPC's website have it coming out of the neutral circle and into Phase 7, then 8, and then 1. It is forecast to be in Phase 1 for the week of Thanksgiving. This time of year in November, Phases 7 and 1 looks like we are right on the border of avg / below avg temps. Phase 8 is cold. Again, the MJO to me looks to be weak in those phases so I don't know if it will have influence on the pattern or not, but if correct, at least it's on the move and not stuck in the neutral circle like it has been for weeks on end.

Not much happening on today's 12Z Euro until you get towards the 20th which is the end of the run where it too is showing a storm system taking shape delivering rain to the area. I think we are starting to see a bonified pattern change to more active and it starts around the 20th per todays guidance.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 2:01 pm Not much happening on today's 12Z Euro until you get towards the 20th which is the end of the run where it too is showing a storm system taking shape delivering rain to the area. I think we are starting to see a bonified pattern change to more active and it starts around the 20th per todays guidance.

I agree 100p/c Les and the models will become even more in the way of showing active weather once we get closer to time. The mjo and we talked about this and it does look weak but its moving so there will be more in the way of active weather. May even get into phase 6 briefly early next week but should head towards 7 and then phase 8. Phase 1 is no doubt a maybe and once it gets into phase 8 we might see it head back to the COD.Again the mjo is weak but it can somewhat give us an ideal of what may happen. I agree about ridging in the west up into Alaska later next week and before hand Alaska gets hammered by some decent storms but within 10 days or so ridging looks to move from the south which will in turn will most likely push a trough into the central and eastern part of the country. This should be happening the same time the STJ is trying to wake up so more storminess looks likely but what form is TBD.

I checked the EPS Tim and it doesn't look quite as cold as the GEFS and GEPS did but it is a workable pattern. Probably would mean rain maybe ending as some flakes and to me that would be the most likely scenario for late November in my opinion. The ridge is from near Hawaii all the way up into Alaska so the ridge is off the West Coast and we need it to be along the West Coast as the other two Ensembles were showing.

Another item is though the PV has got stronger in the past few weeks it has not been extremely cold for that part of the world. Even in Siberia the cold has not been below normal. If we do get some of the cold air to head this way the week of Thanksgiving a few things will keep it from getting much below normal for us locally. First very little snow cover to the north and west. Can we see some snow up there before Thanksgiving and I guess we can but that will be determined by any storm system that forms late next week into Thanksgiving week. Will the cold only go so far south if the STJ gets busy and something we need to watch as well. So yes I believe some colder air will happen near and after Thanksgiving but there are some other factors that may make it hard to get really cold for late November. Average high and lows by then are in the upper 40 to near 50 for a high and low 30's for lows.

Keep up the good work Les. Heading to HH in the morning so probably will not on the forum until late next Friday or Saturday. Hopefully by then the pattern becomes very busy

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 4:39 pm Keep up the good work Les. Heading to HH in the morning so probably will not on the forum until late next Friday or Saturday. Hopefully by then the pattern becomes very busy

Thanks Tim! I'll post as much as I can next week since it's my last week to work from home. Have a great time at HH and safe travels my friend!

Finally!!! The first fantasy snow of the season on the 18Z GFS!

00z GFS continues the colder look, Les. A couple of really cold days in there around Thanksgiving. Interesting!

@Les, you’ll be happy to know that I’m back on team snow. Left you guys for a few years but I’m back

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 4:02 am @Les, you’ll be happy to know that I’m back on team snow. Left you guys for a few years but I’m back

Seriously? You are done with that heat miser BS? Thank GOD! That's why we have had such crappy winters. Now that you're back on Team Snow, we should have a banner winter, right?

Anyway... the OP GFS is certainly interesting. The GEFS does not offer much support yet. Only a handful of members agree. We shall see how this trends next week. The foreign models don't quite go out far enough yet. For now... we are dry and quiet until late next week when the active pattern begins in the form of rain.

34 this morning at CVG, 32 here. Had a light frost before the sun melted it all. I would expect a similar morning tomorrow. Low to mid 50s today, mid to U50s tomorrow for highs which is not too bad for November. In fact it is normal! We will rise back into the 60s next week ahead of our active pattern (as discussed) that may begin as early as Friday. The bigger storms to keep an eye on are for the week of Thanksgiving. Timing, precip type, etc TBD.

Special Snowtalk! from BG this morning.

I would also like to give a huge shout out and a big THANK YOU to our Vets!!! Happy Veteran's Day to all of our Vets, both past and present. Alive or deceased. THANK YOU for your service to our great country and for keeping us FREE! Without our Vets, we wouldn't be able to talk weather on our forum. We wouldn't be able to live our lives the way that we do.

An improving pattern on the 0Z EPS in the Day 10-14 period which would be around Thanksgiving and shortly thereafter,

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 4:02 am @Les, you’ll be happy to know that I’m back on team snow. Left you guys for a few years but I’m back

It’s not that easy Trev, we have a gauntlet of Hazing rituals you must perform to show loyalty

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 10:51 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 4:02 am @Les, you’ll be happy to know that I’m back on team snow. Left you guys for a few years but I’m back

It’s not that easy Trev, we have a gauntlet of Hazing rituals you must perform to show loyalty