Absolute Vorticity

This morning I was getting ready and to go to Troy, OH for some family business with my folks. Then we had lunch at Skyline Chili.

Man, I sure wish I could have shared some of that liquid gold with you all down that way from last night as my gauge picked up a whopping 2.30"!

Prayerfully some future systems can set up an axis down that way!

The GFS is back showing the heat dome in the extended with systems staying up close to the Canadian border and the deep south. I think that the tropics are messing with the model.

12Z Euro is also not impressive for Fri night and Saturday. We may have to wait for that Monday system to be honest the way the data looks today unfortunately.

79 as of 4pm at CVG so the low 80s look great for the high thanks to some afternoon sunshine.

It's a little sticky outside for my liking but decent grilling weather with the low 80s around. Better then tomorrow when I expect warmer temps although normal for August.

Good morning all! Sorry for the forum malfunction. We're back up and good to go now!

Looking at the forecast and upcoming rain chances... I still am not too impressed with the next one. We have a shot for rain late tonight /. early Sat morning. I think something after 3 or 4am, one of those deals. Then, we have one more chance in the afternoon and evening thus the slight risk of severe wx that the SPC still has posted for us. I am still only going with scattered storms.

The better chance in my mind is Monday morning. I think we get an area of rain / t-storms to push in. The severe threat for Monday should be East of Cincinnati. Our extreme Eastern counties would be most at risk into the foothills of the Apps.

Temp wise... still expecting mid to upper 80s in most areas today thru Sunday. 80ish on Monday then the 70s on Tues behind the front. Looks great for the middle portion of next week with lower humidity too. Outlying locations should see a night or two in the 50s next week. Enjoy!

Radar currently shows an area of rain / storms over ILL moving SE. It is weakening as it does so. The question is... does it completely fall apart before getting here or do we see a bit of rain this afternoon? The NAM doesn't even show this area of rain and the HRRR has it quickly drying up over Western into Central IN. So if the data is right, we will see nothing and remain dry today.

Looks good to me Les , pretty much the same outcome for a lot of the forum that has gripped the region all summer. Isolated spots (30 %) get a decent soaking, while the rest split getting a tease or a trace

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 11:39 am Looks good to me Les , pretty much the same outcome for a lot of the forum that has gripped the region all summer. Isolated spots (30 %) get a decent soaking, while the rest split getting a tease or a trace

Thank you Sir! That's exactly what I am seeing. Hoping Monday morning will break that trend from a rainfall amounts perspective.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 12:23 pm https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ter-system

The GFS seems to be getting worse with each upgrade that they do. Of course, I say that about the Euro a lot of the time too!

Just looking at precip since June 1st and most locations in the Ohio Valley are near normal. I know folks like Bgoney have been missed so many times this summer but as a whole the Ohio Valley has been right on target with rainfall amounts. This has help keeping the extended heat away and sure we still have plenty of summer headed this way but chances for 3 or more day in a row of 90 plus is becoming less and less.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:09 pm Just looking at precip since June 1st and most locations in the Ohio Valley are near normal. I know folks like Bgoney have been missed so many times this summer but as a whole the Ohio Valley has been right on target with rainfall amounts. This has help keeping the extended heat away and sure we still have plenty of summer headed this way but chances for 3 or more day in a row of 90 plus is becoming less and less.

I agree Tim. The overall jet stream pattern appears to be locked in where the heat stays over Texas / S Plains back to Western US. We will continue to have systems diving in from Canada into the trough. This keeps us active relatively speaking and as you said, the 90s are kept at bay. We could certainly see a rouge 90 ahead of a cold front, but I don't see widespread or sustained 90s in 2023. The EPO is going negative next week and hence that nice cool shot of air (U70s and L80s) for the middle portion of next week. AO and AO are running negative with a +PNA. A winter weather's lovers dream if we can see bouts of this pattern continuing.

Well folks... there you have it. Do a radar loop and you'll see how that line of rain / storms fizzled out over IN and all we are getting are some clouds from it. 12Z Euro doesn't have anything until midday tomorrow with some convection for the Tri-state area. Then Monday morning keeps showing up on all models so I am currently liking our rain chances there the best as I've been saying.

In summation, no changes from me. Keeping our rain chances in the isolated to scattered category late tonight and Sat and then I am going with likely POPS for Monday morning.

Latest thinking from the boys for tonight thru Sat night:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Big picture up front... To our south, high pressure
exists near the Gulf Coast while a shortwave trough is located
to our north, effectively sandwiching the Ohio Valley in quasi-
zonal flow.

The shortwave moving down from Saskatchewan/Manitoba toward the
northern Great Lakes region will be the primary forcing
mechanism for showers and storms poised to impact the area
Friday during the overnight hours into Saturday. The more robust
forcing/ LLJ with this system will be rounding the base of the
low to our north, keeping us on the southern periphery.

Breaking things down a bit further and getting into the
uncertainties.. Some consensus between CAMs that there will be a
burst of morning convection (thinking in the form of a MCS) sometime
around 09-12z that will impact our southwestern CWA. Exact
track of how this may progress is murky (will it dive south and
just clip us? Or move more through the tri-state?) Guidance
still suggests patchy 30-40 kt bulk shear down around the Tri-
State during early morning hours with elevated instability. Any
early morning storms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall. Overnight lows fall to the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any ongoing AM convection should be moving through the area by
Saturday early morning hours. Additionally, any AM storms will
likely overturn the environment into the early afternoon hours,
potentially inhibiting afternoon thunderstorm development.

As the parent system continues to work its way east, it will
drag a cold frontal boundary along with it Saturday afternoon.
Current thinking is that this boundary will be the focus/ help
force some afternoon storm redevelopment, particularly in our
north and east. Primary threat would be strong/damaging winds;
small hail and localized rainfall is also possible.

As the front slowly pushes southeast through the region, storm
coverages decreases into the evening hours. Overnight lows drop
to the low 60s in the north (where clouds clear out faster) and
low 70s in the south.

Good Afternoon and heading to Wisconsin in the morning. Hopefully over the next week a few chances for rainfall. Should be back in town late next Friday. Hopefully I can grab some of that cool air and bring it back home.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 5:38 pm Good Afternoon and heading to Wisconsin in the morning. Hopefully over the next week a few chances for rainfall. Should be back in town late next Friday. Hopefully I can grab some of that cool air and bring it back home.

Have a safe trip Tim and enjoy those wonderful temps!

Have a fun and safe trip, Tim!

Prayer request for Maui and Lahaina and its citizens / tourists as last I saw this morning 55 have been killed and 1,000+ missing in wildfires, that earlier in the week, were fanned at a rapid rate by a wind field extending from a hurricane that has now moved away from the Hawaiian islands.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 6:54 pm Prayer request for Maui and its citizens / tourists as last I saw this morning 55 have been killed and 1,000+ missing in wildfires, that earlier in the week, were fanned at a rapid rate by a wind field extending from a hurricane that has now moved away from the Hawaiian islands.

Unfortunately, the death toll keeps going up whenever I see coverage on the news. A sad situation indeed....

ILN really wanting to make the forecast complicated for today, but I don’t see it that way . Weakening isolated showers could sneak in this morning before vanishing. Then a chance for isolated t-showers later afternoon and evening

Good morning all! I have not yet looked at a model today, only radar and I am watching some scattered storms in IND Land to see if they will hold together to give us some rain later this morning. The clouds will keep temps down today regardless and I also believe it will mess with the severe threat for late today and into this evening. As usual, we shall see.

Looks like we are on the same page here Bgoney!

Hey look the storms are sliding south & west of us. That hasn't happened all summer.

Hearing thunder at the moment from that big cell off to the West. Would love to see it hold together and move thru the Metro. We'll know soon enough.