Absolute Vorticity

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Adams County in southwestern Ohio...
Southwestern Scioto County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near West Union,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
West Union, Rome, Blue Creek, Otway, Lombardsville, Dunkinsville,
State Route 348 at State Route 125, Wamsley, Cedar Mills, Turkey
Creek Lake and Bentonville.

Thunder here but so far, everything has been a swing and a miss just to my south.

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...The following counties, in Southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Ohio and Switzerland.

* WHEN...Until 545 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Water over roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 353 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches
are possible.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Aurora, Rising Sun, Pleasant, French, Hartford, Pate,
Aberdeen, Bear Branch, Rabbit Hash and Avonburg.

----

1821 UNK Hamersville Brown OH 3892 8399 Tree down on 125 near Hamersville. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1828 100 North Vernon Jennings IN 3901 8563 Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). (IND)

1920 UNK 10 NE Lake Vesuvius Lawrence OH 3870 8247 Downed tree blocking both lanes of State Route 141 near Ford Street. (RLX)

1940 UNK 4 N Crown City Gallia OH 3864 8229 Tree down on Rocky Fork Road in Guyan Township. (RLX)

1940 UNK 10 ENE Lake Vesuvius Lawrence OH 3865 8246 Tree down blocking one lane of State Route 141 approximately a quarter mile south of Zalmon Lane. (RLX)

1945 UNK 8 NE Crown City Gallia OH 3867 8220 Tree down on Hazel Ridge Road in Clay Township. (RLX)

2311 UNK Belmont Belmont OH 4003 8104 Tree down on West Main Street. (PBZ)

2316 UNK 1 SSE Lafferty Belmont OH 4010 8101 Tree down on Mt. Hope Road. (PBZ)

81 and a DP of 63 here in G'ville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 2:00 pm 3000-4000 J/KG of CAPE over NKY right now. Too bad the wind shear is weak. Better shear is behind the front near / N of I-70 so that will limit storm organization somewhat. DCAPE is around 1000 and low level lapse rates are steep so hail could be an issue with the strongest cells along with strong winds.

Watch Outline now posted:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0482.html

You hit the nail on the head Bro. Looks more hopeful for Sat.

I agree Eric. A Trace here so far. I hope folks out East like Bgoney were able to reel in something.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:28 pm I agree Eric. A Trace here so far. I hope folks out East like Bgoney were able to reel in something.

In Asheville atm, but I looked back through the radar and it “looks “ like I may have had a couple good showers move through, there were sharp cutoffs in precipitation both times nearby, so we’ll see tomorrow when I return

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:28 pm I agree Eric. A Trace here so far. I hope folks out East like Bgoney were able to reel in something.

Same here Bro.

Had a quick little downpour 0.14 and temp fell to 77 around 4:30, the most since Sunday's rains. So, I'm happy. Lol

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:28 pm I agree Eric. A Trace here so far. I hope folks out East like Bgoney were able to reel in something.

In Asheville atm, but I looked back through the radar and it “looks “ like I may have had a couple good showers move through, there were sharp cutoffs in precipitation both times nearby, so we’ll see tomorrow when I return

Hi Bgoney,

Have you seen the Biltmore Estate and Gardens? My folks, myself, and my maternal grandmother toured it in May 1995.

Both CVG and CMH 89'ed and DAY reached 87.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:08 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:28 pm I agree Eric. A Trace here so far. I hope folks out East like Bgoney were able to reel in something.

In Asheville atm, but I looked back through the radar and it “looks “ like I may have had a couple good showers move through, there were sharp cutoffs in precipitation both times nearby, so we’ll see tomorrow when I return

Hi Bgoney,

Have you seen the Biltmore Estate and Gardens? My folks, myself, and my maternal grandmother toured it in May 1995.

Yep , a real treasure. North Carolina Arboretum is also a must see, gorgeous.

CVG got 89'ed today... contest thread has been updated accordingly. Good luck Bgoney! Hope you got something buddy! For the rest of us who did not, on to Saturday! A marginal risk is already out for all posters.

Let's all wish a very happy birthday to Tim! Hope you have a wonderful day my friend and many more!!!

Weatherwise today, we've got another chance at getting 89'ed then we'll see how the storm chances look tomorrow. Current indications are for a marginal risk for severe storms. Widespread rains likely in the morning with only scattered stuff in the afternoon. As usual we shall see! Hope all can cash in that needs it.

Sunday is dry, Monday offers up a likely chances with daily chances thereafter about 40-50% coverage.

Happy bday Tim, enjoy this Friday and do something fun!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 7:19 am Weatherwise today, we've got another chance at getting 89'ed then we'll see how the storm chances look tomorrow. Current indications are for a marginal risk for severe storms. Widespread rains likely in the morning with only scattered stuff in the afternoon. As usual we shall see! Hope all can cash in that needs it.

Sunday is dry, Monday offers up a likely chances with daily chances thereafter about 40-50% coverage.

Hey Les, happy Friday! question...Do you see any big heat coming over the next few weeks? Thanks!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 7:18 am Let's all wish a very happy birthday to Tim! Hope you have a wonderful day my friend and many more!!!

Happy Birthday Tim!!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 7:19 am Weatherwise today, we've got another chance at getting 89'ed then we'll see how the storm chances look tomorrow. Current indications are for a marginal risk for severe storms. Widespread rains likely in the morning with only scattered stuff in the afternoon. As usual we shall see! Hope all can cash in that needs it.

Sunday is dry, Monday offers up a likely chances with daily chances thereafter about 40-50% coverage.

Got missed yesterday and again this morning as a couple storms grazed just to my south earlier. Hoping for some good rains tomorrow for the garden - been watering almost every night.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:57 pm CVG got 89'ed today... contest thread has been updated accordingly. Good luck Bgoney! Hope you got something buddy! For the rest of us who did not, on to Saturday! A marginal risk is already out for all posters.

Liking Joe's chances for July in the contest. He went low and unless something drastically changes he will prob be correct. I over compensated! LOL

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 8:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 7:19 am Weatherwise today, we've got another chance at getting 89'ed then we'll see how the storm chances look tomorrow. Current indications are for a marginal risk for severe storms. Widespread rains likely in the morning with only scattered stuff in the afternoon. As usual we shall see! Hope all can cash in that needs it.

Sunday is dry, Monday offers up a likely chances with daily chances thereafter about 40-50% coverage.

Hey Les, happy Friday! question...Do you see any big heat coming over the next few weeks? Thanks!

The heat may briefly try to build in for a couple of days, but I think another trough by next weekend will knock it back down in. Not sure about August yet but the second half of July to me, does not look like big sustainable heat. A 90 or two sure. We avg like 8 for the month of July and so far we only have 1. Classic El Nino summer in progress.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 9:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 7:19 am Weatherwise today, we've got another chance at getting 89'ed then we'll see how the storm chances look tomorrow. Current indications are for a marginal risk for severe storms. Widespread rains likely in the morning with only scattered stuff in the afternoon. As usual we shall see! Hope all can cash in that needs it.

Sunday is dry, Monday offers up a likely chances with daily chances thereafter about 40-50% coverage.

Got missed yesterday and again this morning as a couple storms grazed just to my south earlier. Hoping for some good rains tomorrow for the garden - been watering almost every night.

I'm debating on mowing today since it'll be pretty warm after work. If it rains Sat and it's not a ton I could potentially squeeze it in on Sunday if the yard isn't too wet before renewed chances come next week. Glad I didn't mow yet since we got missed also.

HAPPY 62ND TIM!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy! I appreciate your analysis input etc., too!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.