Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 2:35 pm Precip for tonight at CVG:

12Z NAM - 0.07"
12Z GFS - 0.60"
12Z Euro - 0.40"

I'm surprised at the uptick on the globals. NAM seems to be more of the way to go based on the last few systems performances around here. A slower speed may help with storms but at the same time, everything will be weakening due to it coming in overnight. Lack of CAPE. So no severe wx is expected. I kind of question those higher totals too honestly. 12Z HRRR is like the NAM. Higher swaths north and south of the CVG Metro area. We cannot rule out getting the shaft. 2 models give us the shaft, two others give us exactly what the Dr. ordered.

Will root for at least the 12Z Euro! At noon WHIO7 e.g. showed for Greenville only about .20" which is better than nothing I reckon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 3:45 pm

Prayerfully no D0 zone development over the next several days.

Both DAY and CMH reached 80 and CVG 78 today.

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MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 7:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 9:09 am Just a side note, but it looks like NWS Offices are going to be doing away with advisory headlines. There is a survey you can take to voice your opinions.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/HazSimp23

So at some point for example, a winter weather advisory will be a thing of the past.

Thank you Bro for the posting that link!

For myself, I took the survey and at the end said "Your format looks great as it is!"

Same here Bro!

Radar looks great off to the West but it'll take a while to get here. Also expecting it to weaken some. I wouldn't expect much until the overnight hours / wee hours of the morning.

0.30" here in the bucket. Thank the Lord! We needed it! CVG got 0.22" as of 7am.

Final Totals:

CVG - 0.26"
Me - 0.31"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.35"

Reporting just under a 1/2 inch..
The ground really soaked it up. No puddles in the usual places.

.35” here

0.33” here

Only 70 for my high so far today. 40s tonight. 70s tomorrow and gorgeous! Gorgeous really all of next week with temps warming into the 80s by either Mon or Tues. Lows in the 50s thru the period so the humidity will be nice and low. The next chance of rain may not come until Tues after Memorial Day.

My gauge picked up 1.10"

Man... it really feels nice outside! All of next week will also before the heat of summer eventually comes a calling.

45 here this morning, CVG 46. How low did you guys go? Hope all can enjoy the weather today and really all of this week! May go fishing with the boys and my Brother this afternoon once the kids are done with there baseball games.

45 here

Good Afternoon and another wonderful day in store. Hard to believe but CVG is under 3 degrees above average for temps on the year and almost near normal for precip. Mother nature always working her magic. Very little rainfall in the forecast this week and we just wait and see what the upcoming weekend has in store. El NIno and like Les mentioned is getting going very quickly. Already seeing some signs and one is the STJ is very busy and why the south has been stormier than normal for this time of year plus heat is unable to get going which you would expect this time of year. Also with El Nino's there is usually a dry area north of the STJ and that happens to be in our area. Normally El Nino's get going in summer and the fall time so getting dry conditions in the fall is fine and usually leads to a colder fall. Trying to figure out the summer is much tougher than normal with the El Nino trying to gain hold much earlier than normal.

Had a fun day with the kids watching them play baseball then we went to Rocky Fork. Bite was slow this Afternoon but the weather was of course fantastic!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 7:51 pm Had a fun day with the kids watching them play baseball then we went to Rocky Fork. Bite was slow this Afternoon but the weather was of course fantastic!

How did Colton and Cooper's teams do today, Bro?

What did you guys reel in?

no luck last week in the mushroom department . im starting to think i just got lucky in 2021 when i found those morels. ive never seen them before and now 2 years after with no luck. strange . i caught a few trout while i was out but no size so back they went. if this cooler weather holds on for a bit i will try to get out maybe 1 or 2 more times yet this year

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 9:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 7:51 pm Had a fun day with the kids watching them play baseball then we went to Rocky Fork. Bite was slow this Afternoon but the weather was of course fantastic!

How did Colton and Cooper's teams do today, Bro?

What did you guys reel in?

Colton did not have a game. Cooper did and he had several nice hits including 1 double. He played 1B in the 2nd inning and also got a guy out from the opposing team!

Fishing was slow. 1 small saugeye, a nice perch and a white bass. Too nice a day I guess lol

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon May 22, 2023 1:55 am no luck last week in the mushroom department . im starting to think i just got lucky in 2021 when i found those morels. ive never seen them before and now 2 years after with no luck. strange . i caught a few trout while i was out but no size so back they went. if this cooler weather holds on for a bit i will try to get out maybe 1 or 2 more times yet this year

I think it will Charles especially over New England. I think you'll have a chance or two left.

50 here this morning folks! Only change I see is maybe, just maybe, the low along the East Coast by Friday, can sling some light rain our way??? Otherwise whatcha see is whatcha get. 80s thru Wed then a dry cool front drops us into the low 70s for Thurs maybe the low to mid 70s Fri then back to 80 for the weekend.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 22, 2023 7:42 am 50 here this morning folks! Only change I see is maybe, just maybe, the low along the East Coast by Friday, can sling some light rain our way??? Otherwise whatcha see is whatcha get. 80s thru Wed then a dry cool front drops us into the low 70s for Thurs maybe the low to mid 70s Fri then back to 80 for the weekend.

Good Morning Les and this week except for the lack of rain is almost perfect. The weekend at this point looks good but with those upper lows they tend to have a mind of their own. The further east you live the best shot of getting maybe an outer band of rain but even at this point it looks slim. This is truly a El Nino pattern but one you normally see in the fall time. Record cold in India over the past few weeks but they are nearing monsoon season and temps are ramping up. A pattern like this can deliver rather cold air to eastern Canada and the northeast USA and if they can get that low to hang offshore later this week would not be surprised to see some snow in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont and upstate Maine. Again rare for this time of year but not unheard of in those regions

Good morning Tim... Definitely agree on keeping the chance small. But it is not zero in my opinion. Maybe like a 10 or 20% POP or something is needed that should cover it from this distance.