Absolute Vorticity

EPS at 192 hours (Next Friday) continues with the good looks. Something's cookin'! Don't know if it's a snow storm for us or the East Coast but something is brewing! Look at the +PNA spike we get with it being along the Coast. Nice shortwave amplifying in the Plains as well with a ridge bridge across the top. You won't get a Lakes Cutter in that pattern lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:54 pm EPS at 192 hours (Next Friday) continues with the good looks. Something's cookin'! Don't know if it's a snow storm for us or the East Coast but something is brewing! Look at the +PNA spike we get with it being along the Coast. Nice shortwave amplifying in the Plains as well with a ridge bridge across the top. You won't get a Lakes Cutter in that pattern lol


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No doubt one of the better looks of this winter season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:54 pm EPS at 192 hours (Next Friday) continues with the good looks. Something's cookin'! Don't know if it's a snow storm for us or the East Coast but something is brewing! Look at the +PNA spike we get with it being along the Coast. Nice shortwave amplifying in the Plains as well with a ridge bridge across the top. You won't get a Lakes Cutter in that pattern lol


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No doubt one of the better looks of this winter season.

I think there will be a storm system to keep an eye on either next Friday or next weekend. Again, no clue if we are involved, East Coast etc. but the signal is there for a nice storm for sure. Agreed Tim, this is one of the better looks we have seen all season long. The EPS continues to get better looking with each successive run. GEPS (Canadian Ensemble) is also in agreement. The GEFS isn't quite as nice but anything is going to be better then the extreme warmth we have been seeing. It's tough to get snow in a torch pattern. At least the pattern will be colder or have cold air nearby. 850 MB temps in the -10 to -20 range is pretty cold for winter, let alone March but we could be facing that for a few days. Hope to see a storm develop as the cold comes in, or as it tries to leave ahead of the next cold shot etc. That is usually how the good ones develop.

12z NAM is downright scary for tomorrow with widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. As Les mentioned, HRRR keeps things in check.

Also keep in mind... we're not talking Fantasy range which is Days 10-15. We are talking about 192 hours now or Days 8-9. We are finally inside of fantasy range so that's one thing to check off the list. Next thing to check off the list is to get it within 7 days. Keep an eye on the MJO with regards to exactly when it gets in Phase 8 and how strong? Modeling suggests between 3/6-3/8 for timing so the blocking should be established assuming this is correct, by late next week / next weekend.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:05 pm 12z NAM is downright scary for tomorrow with widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. As Les mentioned, HRRR keeps things in check.

I agree and rooting against the NAM and give me the heavier rainfall the other models are showing compared to the severe side the Nam keeps showing.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:05 pm 12z NAM is downright scary for tomorrow with widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. As Les mentioned, HRRR keeps things in check.

Track of the low will tell the tale Trev. Some models track it close to us, others more NW allowing us to get into the warm sector. The triple point is close thus the tornado threat if the low say tracks thru IND or SE IN. That would be worry some. HRRR keeps things more in check since the low is right over us so we don't really get warm sectored all that much.

No changes from the 18Z NAM and HRRR. NAM still shows the severe threat where the HRRR does not.

The new CPC Analogs for the 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day periods continue to show 2005 and 1960 at the top of the list.

Good Afternoon and what a busy day Friday will be in the weather world around these parts. Timing and always part of forecasting and going to be interesting for a few reasons. First when does the rain arrive overnight and do we see the time period between 4a-8a which is normally a period where the dew points and temps get really close and if this timing is correct some heavy rain for several hours is possible.

Next the chances of severe weather in the afternoon and at this point timing wise the 2p-7p could bring us some severe weather. This part of the forecast is tricky and really what is the path of the low pressure and this is a very strong storm.

Going to be windy all day and of course with any thunderstorms but after the cold front moves through the winds are probably getting stronger in the evening and would not be surprised to see steady winds of 30-40mph with gusts well over 50. As the temps fall Friday Night we could even see a little wind chill by Saturday morning and maybe a flurry or two.

Then we will get a break from the severe weather and hopefully by later next week a winter like pattern emerges. Still too early to say 100p/c winter returns but no doubt over the past few days it seems the chances are going up the closer we get in time.

Still like the call of Les with 1-2 inches but I believe going over 2 inches seems more likely than I thought earlier. Somebody in the Ohio Valley will probably be in that 3 or 4 inch total and of course isolated amounts exceeding the 4 inch mark.

Latest gfs for later next week is much colder and heading towards the Euro. Just taking the gfs longer to figure out the new pattern which is strange because usually its about a week to early but we are in March not December

Tim, the OP GFS is starting to show +PNA spikes like the Euro. See what an improvement in the Pacific can do for us, mostly thanks to the MJO progression into a strong Phase 8? I like how the longer term has looked the last 2 days. Hope to keep it going! We need an event to be within 5 days to be believable. Hopefully by the middle of next week, we'll have something on the table to actually track. The big dog potential with the blocking is going to be big! I don't know if it'll be a Nor 'Easter pattern for only the East Coast or do we see things that get us, before re-developing off the Coast? An Apps runner or something that tracks inland from the East Coast and we are under the upper low back here? All of those types of solutions are possible with this new upcoming pattern.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:00 pm Tim, the OP GFS is starting to show +PNA spikes like the Euro. See what an improvement in the Pacific can do for us, mostly thanks to the MJO progression into a strong Phase 8? I like how the longer term has looked the last 2 days. Hope to keep it going! We need an event to be within 5 days to be believable. Hopefully by the middle of next week, we'll have something on the table to actually track. The big dog potential with the blocking is going to be big! I don't know if it'll be a Nor 'Easter pattern for only the East Coast or do we see things that get us, before re-developing off the Coast? An Apps runner or something that tracks inland from the East Coast and we are under the upper low back here? All of those types of solutions are possible with this new upcoming pattern.

Great Post Les and I agree with everything you mentioned. Hopefully the NAO goes slightly negative and not out of hand because a more negative NAO helps the east coast so give me neutral or slightly negative and I will be happy.

In addition to the flood watch for later on tonight thru tomorrow, we also have a wind advisory in effect from 2pm tomorrow afternoon thru 4am tomorrow night. Heavy rain, severe wx potential... Friday's going to have to all!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:13 pm In addition to the flood watch for later on tonight thru tomorrow, we also have a wind advisory in effect from 2pm tomorrow afternoon thru 4am tomorrow night. Heavy rain, severe wx potential... Friday's going to have to all!

Les a very busy day and then we get a well deserved break for several days and hopefully recharge the batteries for later next week.

STP from the HRRR, RAP, and NAM models (18Z runs) Definitely concerning for Central and SKY and perhaps into our counties S of the Metro as well.


SREF Seems to like NKY and Central KY.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:13 pm In addition to the flood watch for later on tonight thru tomorrow, we also have a wind advisory in effect from 2pm tomorrow afternoon thru 4am tomorrow night. Heavy rain, severe wx potential... Friday's going to have to all!

Les a very busy day and then we get a well deserved break for several days and hopefully recharge the batteries for later next week.

Sure hope so Tim! I could really use something to get me thru the next 9 months of the year.

Where does the low pressure track is so important on Friday in terms of heavy rain and also severe weather. Texas,Oklahoma and Arkansas getting hit this evening and the storm is just getting its act together.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:31 pm Where does the low pressure track is so important on Friday in terms of heavy rain and also severe weather. Texas,Oklahoma and Arkansas getting hit this evening and the storm is just getting its act together.

ATM, we have a deepening 990 MB low over the Rio Grande on the TX side which should move NE thru into extreme SE OK and SW AR as time goes on. I think it tracks up the MS and OH rivers and tracks thru IN between here and IND some place then hits North Central OH and scoots East as it hits the developing block.

AR is just north of the warm front. Just north of the best CAPE but you're getting winds backing to the SE along and just north of the warm front so along with 70-80 knot bulk shear and 300-400 for helicity, you can see why the TOR watch was issued. We should not get those dynamics here in the morning when the warm frontal rains are pushing thru. We need a dry slot to allow the sun to heat things up. If you get 2-3 hours of sun then look out! That's all it would take for 500 J/KG of CAPE to build up here. Tomorrow's threat should be nowcasted with the morning CAMs as well as SPC meso page which we will be doing of course on here. I'm sure we'll have rainfall reports too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:47 pm AR is just north of the warm front. Just north of the best CAPE but you're getting winds backing to the SE along and just north of the warm front so along with 70-80 knot bulk shear and 300-400 for helicity, you can see why the TOR watch was issued. We should not get those dynamics here in the morning when the warm frontal rains are pushing thru. We need a dry slot to allow the sun to heat things up. If you get 2-3 hours of sun then look out! That's all it would take for 500 J/KG of CAPE to build up here. Tomorrow's threat should be nowcasted with the morning CAMs as well as SPC meso page which we will be doing of course on here. I'm sure we'll have rainfall reports too.

Perfect post Les and yes it depends how far north the warm front goes on Friday morning. No doubt with the current forecast of the low we are just a tad north and west but like you mentioned just a few hours of sunshine we need to be doing a nowcast. Central and eastern Kentucky especially south of I-64 could be primed on Friday afternoon. No matter what happens going to be windy and those gusts on Friday evening could reach well over 50mph at times.

During the 6 o'clock wx segment via WHIO7 e.g. it showed my area of Greenville on a rainfall amounts forecast map getting nearly three and a tenth inches at 3.08"

Currently 39 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 50 Fri.

40 here this morning with 0.20" in the books as of 7am. CVG has 0.14" thus far. Mod rain continues with pockets of hvy rain at times. 990 MB low over Eastern AR is getting its act together and moving NE right up the MS and OH river valleys. We'll just need to wait a few hours to see how close the low is to us. The slight risk encompasses just about everyone now with the enhanced risk up to Boone, Kenton and Campbell co's in KY. Hatched 30% winds are almost up to the Metro as well. TOR still 5%. We shall see what happens. Rain, rain and more rain over the next few hours. Then the winds pick up and we see what happens with CAPE.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 7:40 am 40 here this morning with 0.20" in the books as of 7am. CVG has 0.14" thus far. Mod rain continues with pockets of hvy rain at times. 990 MB low over Eastern AR is getting its act together and moving NE right up the MS and OH river valleys. We'll just need to wait a few hours to see how close the low is to us. The slight risk encompasses just about everyone now with the enhanced risk up to Boone, Kenton and Campbell co's in KY. Hatched 30% winds are almost up to the Metro as well. TOR still 5%. We shall see what happens. Rain, rain and more rain over the next few hours. Then the winds pick up and we see what happens with CAPE.

Good Morning Les and a busy day in store and I plan on not going out today so plenty of time spent watching the weather unfold. Rain just picked up over the past few minutes. Warm front in southern Kentucky and that is a key today for what happens later this afternoon and evening. The further north it heads the more likely we get into a more unstable atmosphere this afternoon. Going to very close around here as the front is moving north but the system itself northeast so do we stay in the rain longer or get shut off in a few hours.

First post of many and yes the extended looks interesting later next week. That's all I got to say about that.

Trough is in the process of going negative tilt so things should really start to ramp up to our south