Absolute Vorticity

MD Issued for a wintry mix over Southern ILL, Western KY, SW Indy:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0116.html

31 / 27 here. When I went to take out the trash, the remaining moisture from the earlier drizzle was frozen. Same with the car top. We'll just have to wait and see how much moisture we can get this far north. CVG checking in with 30 / 28.

As of 7pm both Henderson and Owensboro, KY are reporting light snow. In IN, Evansville is reporting unknown precip but I'd imagine it would be either light snow or sleet.

Special Weather Statement for the Cincy Metro / Tri-state:

...SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A light wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle will continue to
develop across the area before midnight. As road surface
temperatures fall slick spots are possible, particularly on
untreated and elevated surfaces. Use caution if traveling late
this evening.

30 / 26 now IMBY as of this post with light freezing drizzle. We will continue to see this until the heavier returns get here in a few more hours. Evansville, IN traffic cam on I-64 looks snow covered and slick with about a 1/4 to 1/2" of snow on the ground. With these colder temps moving in it isn't going to take much. Be careful tonight in our southern counties for sure and also for the AM commute. You can go to INDOT's website and they have an interactive map where you can view snow plow cam's as well. Pretty neat!

Seeing some flurries push in here. Looks like it’s from this southern system by looking at radar.

And there it is. A winter storm warning for western Kentucky. Good call Tim!

Snow sleet mix here in Burlington. I’m sure Boone county schools will delay or close tomorrow

Nice area of snow getting ready to push into the Columbus metro.

Also this was put out by the NWS: Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
918 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ045-046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077-078-080-310600-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Union OH-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Highland-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Marysville, Delaware, Troy,
Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson,
Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering,
Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington,
Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Hillsboro,
and Greenfield
918 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

...SLICK SPOTS TONIGHT...

Light snow will mix with sleet and freezing drizzle across the
area tonight. Accumulations will be limited to a half inch or less
of snow with a light glaze of ice possible. Use caution if
traveling.

Dog just had me out, snow falling, everything dusted, including the streets. Maybe a 1/4 inch.

Snowing here in Butler county.

Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties schools closed today.

Quarter inch at home and Indian hill. Treated roads in good shape. Bad timing for schools , great for kids

Good morning all! Tim did a great job with this system so hats off to him! I have about a 1/2" here which was enough to close our local schools as Pete said. No frz rain thank goodness so we made a good call on keeping that south of us. Maybe Robertson Co had some but that's about it. Most everyone else got snow / sleet.

Oh yeah and Matt finally got his snow day today! Okay so on to the next wave for tonight into Wed morning. I still believe it'll mainly be a Central KY on south event. A few hi res models bring some flurries into our southern counties so I suppose we can't rule that out, but it won't be anything like this morning at all. Then for the bigger GHD wave, I still don't see that one impacting us and it's another central KY on south event and it mainly looks like rain anyway as we'll be into the 40s ahead of Friday's cold shot. Maybe a few flurries on Friday for us off the Lake but that's about it. Then we slowly warm up with 50s returning next week.

Good morning and got about 1 inch of snow/sleet combo. Roads are covered and since we continued to get colder overnight that is why the schools closed. I came home about 11pm last night and roads were starting to get a light covering and that continued all night though accumulations were not that high Looks like the colder and drier air will win out locally for later tonight and early Wednesday though a flurry is always possible and then we will see if the later Wednesday through early Friday system makes it this far north as we will have another cold front knocking at the door.

Salt truck just did my street here. Looks like CVG recorded 0.07" QPF so we'll see what that translates too snow wise when we get the 5pm climate report later today.

Good Morning Les and we are on the same page except the GDH storm.All timing and most storms are but this is real close of giving us a decent ice/snow storm and at the moment the models seem to be showing that in the southern app mountains. Double edge sword as you need the cold air to get involved to make the storm stronger but if to big of a push comes we just become cold air dry. These smaller waves do become more of a nowcast and you sort of play it the day of the storm and try to keep up on trends. I still believe its the strongest and will have the most moisture available so we just need that system to only come 50-100 northwest while in Texas and that would probably be enough movement to bring it further north and west towards us. So you are saying 50-100 miles is not enough to get the precip in here but if it happens in the south central states the angle of attach becomes different and a 50 mile further northwest system in Texas can end up pushing the precip 150 miles further northwest in our area.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:03 am Good Morning Les and we are on the same page except the GDH storm.All timing and most storms are but this is real close of giving us a decent ice/snow storm and at the moment the models seem to be showing that in the southern app mountains. Double edge sword as you need the cold air to get involved to make the storm stronger but if to big of a push comes we just become cold air dry. These smaller waves do become more of a nowcast and you sort of play it the day of the storm and try to keep up on trends. I still believe its the strongest and will have the most moisture available so we just need that system to only come 50-100 northwest while in Texas and that would probably be enough movement to bring it further north and west towards us. So you are saying 50-100 miles is not enough to get the precip in here but if it happens in the south central states the angle of attach becomes different and a 50 mile further northwest system in Texas can end up pushing the precip 150 miles further northwest in our area.

Good morning Tim! I completely understand your thought process on this. You do a wonderful job keeping an eye on these smaller details which absolutely helped you in getting this current wave correct. We'll see if Mother Nature cooperates with you again. I still believe that the cold front is going to keep the moisture at bay for GHD and the low suppressed to the south. That is how I see the timing playing out. Again, as I mentioned yesterday, if the front is slower, this system will 100% be able to come north. I just don't think that will happen since we are in a progressive pattern. Plus, we're not really seeing any jet stream phasing or wave interaction either. I'm still anchored offshore, but may have to pull away by tomorrow.

got a heavy dusting here overnight also. the near future looks very uneventful and next week they are showing more warm air.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:24 am got a heavy dusting here overnight also. the near future looks very uneventful and next week they are showing more warm air.

I agree... we are back into hunting mode again for sure. The extended range looks tough for snow lovers.

Les its an interesting system and of course I need a few things to happen and one of those will be the high pressure over the mid-Atlantic area later Wednesday. I really need this high to push further south and not so quick to the east and to your point things are moving fast and that in the end may be main factor to hurt chances here and folks to our southeast get in on the jackpot. Hopefully by Wednesday morning the system is getting its act together and that will help in determining how the system plays out. This storm was never a slam dunk but I thought it had the chance to become something bigger around here if just a few things changed.

Wow... the map Bgoney posted is just pitiful! Not much more I can say. I don't think even inland lakes will be safe this year. I had a blast last Feb ice fishing for a couple of days with my cousin in S Michigan but I don't see it happening this year. He got out for like 2 days when we had that cold snap in December, and that's basically been it. A 2 day ice fishing season. My goodness!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:37 am Les its an interesting system and of course I need a few things to happen and one of those will be the high pressure over the mid-Atlantic area later Wednesday. I really need this high to push further south and not so quick to the east and to your point things are moving fast and that in the end may be main factor to hurt chances here and folks to our southeast get in on the jackpot. Hopefully by Wednesday morning the system is getting its act together and that will help in determining how the system plays out. This storm was never a slam dunk but I thought it had the chance to become something bigger around here if just a few things changed.

Tim, the GHD storm about a week ago had a nice chance. I was very interested in it at that time, but the things we need to go right aren't happening so what can you do? Keep that one eye open and probably close 'em by tomorrow morning is pretty much what I'm doing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:39 am Wow... the map Bgoney posted is just pitiful! Not much more I can say. I don't think even inland lakes will be safe this year. I had a blast last Feb ice fishing for a couple of days with my cousin in S Michigan but I don't see it happening this year. He got out for like 2 days when we had that cold snap in December, and that's basically been it. A 2 day ice fishing season. My goodness!

That is pretty sad in terms of ice. My guess in northern China there are lakes around that are just the opposite as they have been on the colder side this winter season. Getting correct info from China even dealing with the weather is not exactly easy. Mother Nature will have balanced this out somewhere and we know Europe has been mild this season so folks in eastern Asia seems like the spot for the balancing act to occur.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:29 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:24 am got a heavy dusting here overnight also. the near future looks very uneventful and next week they are showing more warm air.

I agree... we are back into hunting mode again for sure. The extended range looks tough for snow lovers.

Looking grim for much of the lower 48 for any significant snows the next 8 days at least.