Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:26 am
We need to start seeing at least one or two WWBs this winter or early spring to get there
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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We need to start seeing at least one or two WWBs this winter or early spring to get there
Been thinking about those crazy SOIs. That has to be a case where the SOI is playing catch up (lag) to a waning LANINAtron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:32 amI'd also like to start seeing the SOI dropping into negative territory here pretty soon too. That would be another good sign if it were to occur.
I agree. We've pointed out already that this Nina is not behaving like a Nina. We are seeing the warming occurring in the SST's from the East regions 1.2 along with 3 and 3.4 have warmed a bit. Region 4 (West PAC) has still not responded, as in still pretty cold! Will that continue the MJO fail or can the current impulse finally break thru into the West Pac ala Phase 8? MJO modeling has it getting into Phase 8 after 1/10. Virtually all guidance is now showing this. It could easily fail, we've seen it before.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:51 amBeen thinking about those crazy SOIs. That has to be a case where the SOI is playing catch up (lag) to a waning LANINAtron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:32 amI'd also like to start seeing the SOI dropping into negative territory here pretty soon too. That would be another good sign if it were to occur.
. I know when they were in the 50+ range there was a TC in the area to skew to a high number. I do expect less big +numbers to commense shortly
We are expecting the same here locally. The cold front which will bring in the more avg to slightly above avg airmass, has passed Cincinnati and is moving into our Eastern counties now. Even some sunshine here behind the front. Not too bad of a day now until temps drop off thru the 50s as the afternoon wears on.airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:45 am was surprised how warm it was earlier. approaching record high temps for today. wow . good thing its not gonna last too long though as we will have more seasonal cold come back by the weekend. temps looks to be around average or just above for the next 10 days or so.
starting t o wonder if this will be a 1996 type la-nina winter. back then it was a flip flop pattern every 3 weeks or so. we started of Jan very cold and a blizzard 1 week in, towards then end of that same month was 50s and tons of rain and flooding and then we have a very cold and snowy period in February. I am thinking this winter is going to go back and forth every 2-3 weeks or so. pretty much what we have already seen this fall/winter quite franklytron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:52 amWe are expecting the same here locally. The cold front which will bring in the more avg to slightly above avg airmass, has passed Cincinnati and is moving into our Eastern counties now. Even some sunshine here behind the front. Not too bad of a day now until temps drop off thru the 50s as the afternoon wears on.airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:45 am was surprised how warm it was earlier. approaching record high temps for today. wow . good thing its not gonna last too long though as we will have more seasonal cold come back by the weekend. temps looks to be around average or just above for the next 10 days or so.
A cold and / or snowy February would not shock me. We've had our best wintry events in Feb since this Triple Dip Nina began.airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:22 amstarting t o wonder if this will be a 1996 type la-nina winter. back then it was a flip flop pattern every 3 weeks or so. we started of Jan very cold and a blizzard 1 week in, towards then end of that same month was 50s and tons of rain and flooding and then we have a very cold and snowy period in February. I am thinking this winter is going to go back and forth every 2-3 weeks or so. pretty much what we have already seen this fall/winter quite franklytron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:52 amWe are expecting the same here locally. The cold front which will bring in the more avg to slightly above avg airmass, has passed Cincinnati and is moving into our Eastern counties now. Even some sunshine here behind the front. Not too bad of a day now until temps drop off thru the 50s as the afternoon wears on.airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:45 am was surprised how warm it was earlier. approaching record high temps for today. wow . good thing its not gonna last too long though as we will have more seasonal cold come back by the weekend. temps looks to be around average or just above for the next 10 days or so.
For a second half of January save it has to get to 8 to change up the 500mb PACtron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:33 am This ties in pretty well with our ongoing SOI and MJO discussion. Could we see the SOI start to drop around or just after the 10th? Are the models correct with the MJO moving along and getting into Phase 8 after the 10th? The overnight EPS Mean show some nice subsidence around that time:
EPSVerticalVelocity.png
OP GFS:
OPGFSVerticalVelocity.gif
Completely agree. We'll see over the next week what happens. We'll know next week I would suspect if this has a legit shot of happening or is it another failure which won't shock us. The shocker would be if it actually gets into 8.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:29 amFor a second half of January save it has to get to 8 to change up the 500mb PACtron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:33 am This ties in pretty well with our ongoing SOI and MJO discussion. Could we see the SOI start to drop around or just after the 10th? Are the models correct with the MJO moving along and getting into Phase 8 after the 10th? The overnight EPS Mean show some nice subsidence around that time:
EPSVerticalVelocity.png
OP GFS:
OPGFSVerticalVelocity.gif
One thing that is encouraging is that we are seeing the westerly anomalies reach further east (closer to dateline), than I've seen for quite sometime and are modeled to continue, possibly giving a boost for the MJO to trek into 8 instead of dieing in 8. Also think those westerly anomalies advancing into the west pac have been what has given the PACJET a steroid effect and the coast enjoying drought busting qpftron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:33 amCompletely agree. We'll see over the next week what happens. We'll know next week I would suspect if this has a legit shot of happening or is it another failure which won't shock us. The shocker would be if it actually gets into 8.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:29 amFor a second half of January save it has to get to 8 to change up the 500mb PACtron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:33 am This ties in pretty well with our ongoing SOI and MJO discussion. Could we see the SOI start to drop around or just after the 10th? Are the models correct with the MJO moving along and getting into Phase 8 after the 10th? The overnight EPS Mean show some nice subsidence around that time:
EPSVerticalVelocity.png
OP GFS:
OPGFSVerticalVelocity.gif![]()
Definitely an encouraging sign! the GFS in the long term today has a workable pattern from around mid month and beyond. Could it be that maybe it is seeing the more favorable MJO phase taking place? Or is it just sniffing glue like usual?Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:55 am One thing that is encouraging is that we are seeing the westerly anomalies reach further east (closer to dateline), than I've seen for quite sometime and are modeled to continue, possibly giving a boost for the MJO to trek into 8 instead of dieing in 8. Also think those westerly anomalies advancing into the west pac have been what has given the PACJET a steroid effect and the coast enjoying drought busting qpf
u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
I'm going to keep going on the subject , lol.. we've talked about lag time lately and I think this gets passed over alot by many mets on webdom. We got into phase 5 give or take around the 20th-22nd. The lower 48 started the warm pattern 5-7 days later ,roughly . So IF we do get to phase 8 to some degree can we expect that same lag time for a return to some semblance of Arctic air?tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:59 amDefinitely an encouraging sign! the GFS in the long term today has a workable pattern from around mid month and beyond. Could it be that maybe it is seeing the more favorable MJO phase taking place? Or is it just sniffing glue like usual?Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:55 am One thing that is encouraging is that we are seeing the westerly anomalies reach further east (closer to dateline), than I've seen for quite sometime and are modeled to continue, possibly giving a boost for the MJO to trek into 8 instead of dieing in 8. Also think those westerly anomalies advancing into the west pac have been what has given the PACJET a steroid effect and the coast enjoying drought busting qpf
u.anom.30.5S-5N.gifWe'll have to wait and see but I can't complain at all at the things we are discussing today. All positive things!
You are always bringing up great points and this is another. I have been guilty of rushing pattern changes and we know the models are notorious for doing it so that could certainly explain why we see these things happen. So if we use this logic, for example, if the MJO gets into Phase 8 by the 10th, apply the lag time and we should see a colder pattern emerge by the 15th-17th. I know Tim and I have been discussing a change from seasonal temps, which we know are coming after today to a better pattern for snow lovers around mid moth so our thoughts are not way off at all on this. We are all on the same page with arctic air. No one on our forum (as far as I know) currently expects a return to what we saw for Christmas. If we can manage some 20s and 30s during the back half of the month, we'll be off and running!Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 1:05 pmI'm going to keep going on the subject , lol.. we've talked about lag time lately and I think this gets passed over alot by many mets on webdom. We got into phase 5 give or take around the 20th-22nd. The lower 48 started the warm pattern 5-7 days later ,roughly . So IF we do get to phase 8 to some degree can we expect that same lag time for a return to some semblance of Arctic air?tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:59 amDefinitely an encouraging sign! the GFS in the long term today has a workable pattern from around mid month and beyond. Could it be that maybe it is seeing the more favorable MJO phase taking place? Or is it just sniffing glue like usual?Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:55 am One thing that is encouraging is that we are seeing the westerly anomalies reach further east (closer to dateline), than I've seen for quite sometime and are modeled to continue, possibly giving a boost for the MJO to trek into 8 instead of dieing in 8. Also think those westerly anomalies advancing into the west pac have been what has given the PACJET a steroid effect and the coast enjoying drought busting qpf
u.anom.30.5S-5N.gifWe'll have to wait and see but I can't complain at all at the things we are discussing today. All positive things!