December 2022 Weather Discussion

[dce]

LOL @ the GFS. On the 18Z run, it's colder once again. Then, just when you think it may show a fantasy snow storm for us around the 17th, NOPE! It cuts the energy off in the SW instead. You can't make this $hit up!

Hey Les I believe I was watching Joe B on his weekly video and he was really mad about the gfs. Need to watch again but I believe he does not understand why the model seems to be horrible in the USA but does well in Europe. I believe his thought process is the pacific ocean is somehow messing with that model and has to much warmth and of course usually way to progressive with systems across the USA.

Either the upgrade killed it as you mentioned before, or the model just doesn't have the physics programmed into it to correctly handle this extreme block. I don't have any other explanation myself.

JB is talking about how cold the GFS is in the tropics. The Euro seems to be showing reality according to JB. The Canadian looks very similar to the Euro in this regard. His conclusion is that if the GFS is this far off in the tropics it is causing the model to do what it has been doing.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and fog outside this morning. If you love the sun then the next 10-14 days this is not the place. Very active pattern over the next 2 weeks and one that gives us plenty of rainfall and then the pattern change. I know we have been talking about the new pattern for many weeks and that is why it seems it will never come or its very late. Reality is Les and I have been touting mid-Dec as when we see the new pattern and getting there sometimes can mean mild and wet and that is the case this time. We know about the systems this week but next I believe 2 storms that switch us over to a more winter pattern. First one gets in here probably Tuesday/Wednesday period and that should be a mild and wet storm with maybe a few flakes at the end followed by another system the following weekend and that is the one we need to watch for winter weather. To far out for any predictions on snow/ice but cold air will then settle in and the week leading up to Christmas should no doubt be cold and hopefully we can get a little snow from this pattern.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Dense fog advisory for about the Western 1/2 of the area until noon. This is thanks to the warm front taking its good ole sweet time pushing thru. Once it does, we'll get some rain, maybe a t-storm and the fog will lift. Temps will rise as a result too. Still thinking any rain is scattered and not everyone will get a nice downpour later on this afternoon and tonight. Rain again esp Thurs ending early Fri.

The weekend right now looks to be dry. Highs in the U30s to L40s across the region and lows in the U20-s to L30s is expected. Typical for December. Weather should be good for the Bengals next match up with CLE here at Paycor too.

Okay so next week has been the well advertised transition period to get us into the pattern that Tim and I are talking about. Sun night or Monday, is the arrival of that next system. It could start as frozen precip briefly Sun night depending on the precip arrival but we will go quickly over to rain with the low tracking well west of us. After that storm... that is the one that should beat the ridge down enough over the SE to allow for the cooler air to make it in here for better wintry weather opportunities by mid month and beyond. Still excited about the week leading up to Christmas too!

[tpweather]

Les it looks like we are on the same page except the 1st storm next week as you have coming in a full day ahead of me. You have late Sunday/Monday and I have Tuesday/early Wednesday so my guess somewhere in between will be the arrival. I was going later because I thought that system could get rather large and that usually slows down a system. Plenty of time to pin that down and you are correct about the weekend as it looks dry but not sure about any sun especially since we will have had plenty of rainfall beforehand and though it gets cooler we don't get that big push of cold that helps dry out the low level moisture.

[tron777]

Les it looks like we are on the same page except the 1st storm next week as you have coming in a full day ahead of me. You have late Sunday/Monday and I have Tuesday/early Wednesday so my guess somewhere in between will be the arrival. I was going later because I thought that system could get rather large and that usually slows down a system. Plenty of time to pin that down and you are correct about the weekend as it looks dry but not sure about any sun especially since we will have had plenty of rainfall beforehand and though it gets cooler we don't get that big push of cold that helps dry out the low level moisture.

Absolutely Tim! I may have to adjust should we see a more wrapped up system. If it is weaker then the precip may arrive early enough for some brief flakes or sleet then rain. No issues are expected of course but just something minor I am watching.

[tpweather]

I believe the mjo is somewhat causing some problems with the models as well. At the moment in the circle of death but its close to phase 3 and 4. Those phases are warm and if they briefly get in those phases which is possible then you can see the milder weather we have this week. Longer term though most of them have in rotating in the COD with some heading towards phase 1 and 2 which are colder phases. Though I don't believe the mjo is the main driver of the current pattern it can cause some disruptions and slow the pattern down somewhat.

[tron777]

I believe the mjo is somewhat causing some problems with the models as well. At the moment in the circle of death but its close to phase 3 and 4. Those phases are warm and if they briefly get in those phases which is possible then you can see the milder weather we have this week. Longer term though most of them have in rotating in the COD with some heading towards phase 1 and 2 which are colder phases. Though I don't believe the mjo is the main driver of the current pattern it can cause some disruptions and slow the pattern down somewhat.

I'm not as concerned Tim with the MJO as I once was. Simply because it is in the COD and it's weak so it should have little, if any, influence on the pattern at this time. If it were to come out and begin to strengthen in Phase 3, 4, 5 etc. then for sure we would have some issues. I am expecting it to remain in the COD as most models are showing that. The GEFS however is trying to bring it out into Phase 1 and then getting into 2 Dec 16-20th. I am not forecasting this unless we see more guidance going that way down the road. Those are cold phases usually so we'll see.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Hey Tim.... I am beginning to think your later timing for next week is going to be correct. I think I need to change. I thought that we would see a bigger system Sun night and Monday then boom the pattern changes. It appears that either A - That big system comes around Tues night into Wed of next week or B - The Sun night and Monday system is still there and it's weak. Then we get the bigger system Tues night and Wed to change the pattern. So either way, the timing now looks to be Dec 13-14th for that pattern changing system. Great job Tim in recognizing that! I like how BG showed in his video the EPS members for LOU showing increased confidence in something wintry coming with the system right after that (17-19th period). So while my original call itself isn't going to be perfect, it's still well within reason being that we've been discussing this for almost 4 weeks now.

[tron777]

I'm watching the 12z GFS come in and the energy for that Sun night and Mon system is still there, but no phasing and the jet streams remain separated until the Tues night and Wed system comes in next week to change the pattern. Kudos to Tim on that call and he and I are back on the same page once again.

[airwolf76]

I dont see much change until the last 2 weeks of the month.

[tron777]

Now depending on the timing of the cold front for that Tues night and Wed system for next week, we will need to watch for strong to severe t-storms. Way too early to say anything other then keep one eye open on it. Could be the SE or TN Valley only, but with that low so far west of us, we aren't really out of the game either for storms.

[tron777]

I dont see much change until the last 2 weeks of the month.

We're all in the same wheelhouse with our thinking. Tim and I are pretty much around 12/15 on. You are around 12/19 on I am assuming by your post? When forecasting the long range, I consider both calls to be perfectly relevant.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS from about the 15th on, shows a favorable pattern with blocking across the top and a +PNA as well. This is one of the better GEFS runs as of late and looks more like the EPS.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is rolling in and for the rest of this week, any rain we do see per this model is on the light side. It has gotten rid of the better rainfall event for Thurs. with scattered light shower activity. Total rainfall from the Euro for CVG thru Friday is not even 0.20" A far cry from the 0.50 to 0.75" I have predicted for the period.

Then, the jet streams stay separate for Sun night and Mon. Euro has the bigger storm idea today but is a little slower then some of the other models I have seen for the pattern changing system. Tues night into Wed is a nice early call. The 12Z Euro shows rain not arriving until Wed. itself. Should the slower timing be correct, I think the chances for strong storms goes up as well. Early to mid next week is a period to watch for t-storms with the pattern transition taking place due to this system.

[tron777]

12Z EPS in the longer term has now taken a step towards the GEFS, which is the wrong direction. The 12Z GEFS was a remarkable improvement though. So maybe we may see a middle of the road solution here? Still too early to know.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and have not looked at the models so far today. Was at my uncles funeral and that makes 2 uncles and one of my best friends die in the past 6 weeks. Once you get to my age that happens quite often and we all must deal with someday. I will look at them later today and hopefully some changes from the gfs but who knows at this point.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and have not looked at the models so far today. Was at my uncles funeral and that makes 2 uncles and one of my best friends die in the past 6 weeks. Once you get to my age that happens quite often and we all must deal with someday. I will look at them later today and hopefully some changes from the gfs but who knows at this point.

I'm so sorry Tim! Prayers to you and your family my friend!

[tron777]

Quick post on the current wx picture and the warm front is about on top of CVG now. Starting to see some convection over Eastern ILL crossing over into SW IN. That should not make it up here because the warm front should slide back south as a cold front again later on tonight. It'll try to come back north as a warm front again later in the week with another shower / rain chance possible. We may also see quite a bit of fog tonight and tomorrow morning like we saw today - FYI. It wouldn't surprise me if another dense fog advisory comes out tonight.

[Bgoney]

.25"-.75" range for the week still looks good to me for the AV triangle of Cvg,Day, Cbus, isolated t-shower tonight could produce a brief downpour. Best rains continue to be central KY and southward. We just can't get a connection to the GOM this far north into our area. Moisture tonight is basically coming from the SW off the pacific

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and have not looked at the models so far today. Was at my uncles funeral and that makes 2 uncles and one of my best friends die in the past 6 weeks. Once you get to my age that happens quite often and we all must deal with someday. I will look at them later today and hopefully some changes from the gfs but who knows at this point.

I'm so sorry Tim! Prayers to you and your family my friend!

Thanks Les and my uncles were kind of expected but my friend was a shock. Back to the weather and to me it looks like models are trying to come together next week and that hopefully helps in trying to make a better forecast. I like the ideal of a rather big storm that will head towards the great lakes and this should bring down a bigger push of cold air in the middle to end of next week. Then what happens and its not a slam dunk but models seem to have problems with a second system that usually forms somewhere over the south central states a few days after the bigger storm to the north moves away. So a rather large storm Tuesday and Wednesday and some decent rains again and can never throw out a chance of a thunderstorm but mid-December is not prime time for that so going to leave that out of the forecast locally but not further south and west. Then cold air should race in behind this front and we could see some light snow or flurries but this front should press on rather quickly. Then we wait until the weekend when I believe another system will form to our southwest and head this way. Will that be Friday,Saturday or Sunday and to early but I expect some storm to form and head northeast. This cold should stick around for several weeks and we hope the chances for snow go up but again even in great patterns you can get missed. Several reasons I believe the second half of the month will be decent is the AO is going to continue to be really negative and this help keep the cold air on this side of the globe. Second the NAO is negative but as we head out in time it heads towards neutral but still remains slightly negative which would indicate more storminess further west. Third is the one that I need to switch from negative to neutral or slightly positive next week and if this happens we are in a really good pattern for winter weather.

Can we have something mess this up and you bet we can and one could be the mjo deciding to head into phase 3 or 4 for a period of time and that in turn would keep the milder air around for a longer period. At the moment I see this not happening and just continues into the COD and hopefully emerges into a colder phase like 8 or 1 and then we are really cooking.

So many times trying to figure out how you get from one pattern to the next is not easy but I really like what is happening because its more gradual and to me once the pattern flips it will be around much longer.

[tpweather]

.25"-.75" range for the week still looks good to me for the AV triangle of Cvg,Day, Cbus, isolated t-shower tonight could produce a brief downpour. Best rains continue to be central KY and southward. We just can't get a connection to the GOM this far north into our area. Moisture tonight is basically coming from the SW off the pacific

Bgoney I had forecast last week that the local area would in the 1-2 inch range before all is said and done. So far .013 inches so worried a little bit though I agree the higher totals were always going to be to our south and east. I will continue with my forecast though no doubt I am hedging towards the lower end of my totals. I thought the front would be near us all week and with a few waves coming through I thought we would get enough moisture to ring out that 1-2 inches. The good thing is we don't need to moisten up the atmosphere as you can see with a day of fog and mist. BTW my grass is greener at the moment then it has since late August and of course I got into the short term earlier than most as I missed the August rains that many folks ended up getting

[tron777]

This sums up the long range pretty good, huh?

WeatherFun.png

[tron777]

.25"-.75" range for the week still looks good to me for the AV triangle of Cvg,Day, Cbus, isolated t-shower tonight could produce a brief downpour. Best rains continue to be central KY and southward. We just can't get a connection to the GOM this far north into our area. Moisture tonight is basically coming from the SW off the pacific

Bgoney I had forecast last week that the local area would in the 1-2 inch range before all is said and done. So far .013 inches so worried a little bit though I agree the higher totals were always going to be to our south and east. I will continue with my forecast though no doubt I am hedging towards the lower end of my totals. I thought the front would be near us all week and with a few waves coming through I thought we would get enough moisture to ring out that 1-2 inches. The good thing is we don't need to moisten up the atmosphere as you can see with a day of fog and mist. BTW my grass is greener at the moment then it has since late August and of course I got into the short term earlier than most as I missed the August rains that many folks ended up getting

I had 0.50 to 0.75" for this week. We shall see! Up to 0.02" here and at CVG for today so we're off to a roaring start!

[Bgoney]

.25"-.75" range for the week still looks good to me for the AV triangle of Cvg,Day, Cbus, isolated t-shower tonight could produce a brief downpour. Best rains continue to be central KY and southward. We just can't get a connection to the GOM this far north into our area. Moisture tonight is basically coming from the SW off the pacific

Bgoney I had forecast last week that the local area would in the 1-2 inch range before all is said and done. So far .013 inches so worried a little bit though I agree the higher totals were always going to be to our south and east. I will continue with my forecast though no doubt I am hedging towards the lower end of my totals. I thought the front would be near us all week and with a few waves coming through I thought we would get enough moisture to ring out that 1-2 inches. The good thing is we don't need to moisten up the atmosphere as you can see with a day of fog and mist. BTW my grass is greener at the moment then it has since late August and of course I got into the short term earlier than most as I missed the August rains that many folks ended up getting

Condolences by the way.

CVG could approach an inch but for a good chunk north of there it was always going to be tough IMO to get near that range , so that's why I went lower. I think the last time the region got help with rainfall from the GOM was right around labor day when quite a few areas got a soaking, I remember 2-4" were reported in and around our area , I got 2" and I think you got missed or very little at that time.