Absolute Vorticity

CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 71 today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:15 pm A dusting certainly looks like it could happen over the weekend. For our November's of late that would be Quite an achievement . 12 to 14 days below normal temps in November, ditto. Atm , I hink we do warm up sometime during the last week of the month , whether that includes Turkey day, hard to say . Just baseing this Atm on the MJO making it to 5 or 6 and the 500mb response

That's exactly it, where does the MJO re-emerge after coming out of the neutral circle will tell us when and if we warm up and how long that lasts. There will probably be a relaxation period at some point, there usually is.

Hi all! Kind of bummed I missed the snow contest, but that is on me. After 29 years of plowing snow, I am so looking forward to a snowy season without needing to get up at 0:dark thirty. I can assure all that this will be a snowy winter! Always the case now that I’m done. Looking forward to following this winter.

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:42 pm Hi all! Kind of bummed I missed the snow contest, but that is on me. After 29 years of plowing snow, I am so looking forward to a snowy season without needing to get up at 0:dark thirty. I can assure all that this will be a snowy winter! Always the case now that I’m done. Looking forward to following this winter.

Glad to see you back posting again! Hope to see more folks come back esp after the cold air hits this weekend. Sat morning's flakes hopefully will get folks in the mood and thinking about posting again.

Good evening everyone! I am getting ready for an eventful season.

cincy bud wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:54 pm Good evening everyone! I am getting ready for an eventful season.

Nice to see you back as well, Bud!

Pretty much what we thought so far, Made it to #3 warmest first 10 days of Nov.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:25 am Pretty much what we thought so far, Made it to #3 warmest first 10 days of Nov.

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No doubt it really looked like a slam dunk. Do we make it to the 3rd coldest for the middle 10 days of Nov. My guess that is very possible. Once again Mother Nature doing her balancing act over and over.

Some moderate rains on the way in. The amount of frogs happily dancing in the streets was incredible, only to get crushed by my AT tires. Circle of life I guess. I think I heard the ground making that slurping noise like when you reached the end of a Frisches cherry coke and you want every last drop

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:25 am Some moderate rains on the way in. The amount of frogs happily dancing in the streets was incredible, only to get crushed by my AT tires. Circle of life I guess. I think I heard the ground making that slurping noise like when you reached the end of a Frisches cherry coke and you want every last drop

Continues to rain here in Greenville. I am more of an Vanilla Coke person but once I get home I may need to stop and get one. Going to leave at 430am on Saturday and hope to make it in time for a few flakes to be falling.

Good morning all! Happy Veterans Day to all of our past and present Vets!!! Too bad it's raining or I'd fly the flag today. 0.48" so far IMBY so amounts seem to be playing out as expected with that sharp cut off NW of us and the heaviest rains over our SE counties. Can we follow this up with our first grassy snow accumulations of the season tomorrow morning? Very possible... stay tuned!

Really nice to see the rain at home. No drought buster but very helpful. Over the next 10 days or so chances of more rain/snow and though nothing looks heavy you can expect one of those systems to be a tad stronger and further north than the models show. Which one is anybody's guess at the moment

Good Morning Les. Starting out with why we will see a longer period than normal of cold weather in mid-November. Normally we talk about the AO and NAO and when they go negative this gives us a better shot of below normal temps. This cold spell is different as both of those are neutral to positive so why are we seeing this cold outbreak. The EPO is running the show at the moment and is rather negative which is pumping cold air into the USA. Since the AO is on the positive side cold air is still developing over the arctic regions so the supply of cold air is really available. Many times when the EPO goes negative the AO will turn negative which in turn sort of stops the cold air from developing in the arctic regions and yes we get cold but after a certain amount of time we run out of really cold air to tap. So the cold looks to last at least 10 days which is rare in mid-November.

Yes I expected an early start to winter but no way could I see it starting this early and really thought after Thanksgiving would be the time period. So does this mean cold air will continue throughout the winter and of course the answer is no. We will have times that we get mild and will be looking for snow on the gfs lol. Saying that patterns repeat and with that I expect more periods of cold weather this winter compared to the last several years.

The wild card still looks to be La Nina and I believe finally we are starting to see it become weaker over the next few months. We have been teased the past couple of years where models showed it going away but that never happened. This time though I expect La Nina will be a thing of the past by early spring. Will we then jump into a El Nino episode and to early but with Mother Nature she really likes to even the playing field so I would not be surprised by this time next year we are heading in that direction.

Good morning Tim... Don't forget about the MJO. It's having a say as well. Where does it re-emerge and how strong will dicate a late November warm up or not. That's what I'm watching attm. Currently, this new pattern has at least a 7-10 day staying power so we should have a chance or two for snow while the pattern is here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:10 am Good morning Tim... Don't forget about the MJO. It's having a say as well. Where does it re-emerge and how strong will dicate a late November warm up or not. That's what I'm watching attm. Currently, this new pattern has at least a 7-10 day staying power so we should have a chance or two for snow while the pattern is here.

No doubt Les and though the mjo waves have been on the weaker side they have been moving and it looks like we made it to phase 8 before dying and when it goes into the COD we tend to get the normal weather of the last phase it was in. This means below normal temps for a period of time and then we see if the mjo just sort of sits on the sidelines or does it move towards the warmer phases of 4-7.

The Aussies have updated and as of 11/9 it made it into the COD on the border of 8 and 1 so the wave made it much further west before it died. Hopefully that's a good sign down the road. GFS and Euro want to re-emerge it into either 5 or 6 (depending on the model) and by the 25th we are heading towards 7. So we would likely be back in 7 if correct by late Nov. Should it keep moving then the break is short lived since 8 would be back in early December. Just speculating here. We have no idea yet as to what's going to happen but if we do see a week to 10 day warm spell that would be why.

So if CVG records that coating tomorrow... Jeff (snowbrain2) would have hit the first accum at CVG right on the nose! So let's see how that goes tomorrow. Meanwhile, a nice steady rain continuing here.... love seeing the grey Nov skies for a change. CVG is up to 0.58" as of 8am.

Models are trying to bring the Tues wave back to life with a bit more northern stream interaction. Models are trying to figure out which storm will be the bigger system? Tues or Fri. If it's Tues then the Fri storm doesn't materialize and the next system comes in by the weekend. If the Tues storm doesn't phase, than the Fri system will have room to develop. So that's kind of where we're headed. Some GEFS members looked really interesting for Tues but likely overdone because of the time of year. Unless this thing comes in overnight or in the morning, this time of year, accum can be tough.

EDIT: EPS has it too but it's like the Euro / CMC / UKMET where there is not a lot of Northern Stream (NS) interaction. GFS, GEFS are more realistic for Tues at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:59 am Models are trying to bring the Tues wave back to life with a bit more northern stream interaction. Models are trying to figure out which storm will be the bigger system? Tues or Fri. If it's Tues then the Fri storm doesn't materialize and the next system comes in by the weekend. If the Tues storm doesn't phase, than the Fri system will have room to develop. So that's kind of where we're headed. Some GEFS members looked really interesting for Tues but likely overdone because of the time of year. Unless this thing comes in overnight or in the morning, this time of year, accum can be tough.

I agree that one of two most likely will over perform but once we have the current system out of the way my guess models will start to figure out next week. November and March snows are not easy around here and usually melt within a few days. Any snows imo in November is a bonus. The one good thing is with the snows over the past two days in the northern plains and upper midwest will stick around. Many areas will not get above 32 over the next 7-10 days so that snow will not melt. Hopefully they can add a little more snow and hopefully start to see it a tad further south as well.

Happy Veterans Day to all! Rainfall of 0.54" and still coming down in my hood. Definitely much needed!

Tim... agree on the snow cover that is def. building nicely to our NW. It's the timing of the pieces of energy to see which system is going to be the dominant one next week. Nice early season battle right now between the US and Foreign model guidance.

Mike... love the rains too man! This is great!

Lets talk winter precip and what could happen in the next 7-10 days. Saturday morning we could see rain,snow or a mix but the ground temps are way to warm and the most you would see is a light cover on the grass areas. Then the first system which looks to be late Monday or Tuesday. Not only do we have a chance of rain or snow but we need to look at frz/rain as a possibility. A little to early to pinpoint what may happen and normally November is not noted for frz/rain events. Then we look at the late week system to see what precip types may fall. One thing that has happened is the GOM is open for business and really the western GOM has not been touched much in the past several weeks. Getting well below normal temps in the winter usually leads to cold and dry but getting well below normal in November can still lead to systems forming in the southern plains and heading east/northeast. Usually not a pattern that gives you big storms but weak to moderate systems can happen and we just need to see how far north these systems want to track

Beware of the Cincy/Dayton split on some of the modeling for tomorrow's snow. As we all know, this can definitely be real.

Nearing 1 inch down here in Greenville. Not sure 2 inches is in reach but 1.5 looks very likely. The leaves are past peak as well with tons of leaves on the ground. Will still have leaves to take care of when I get home since I have been gone for 16 days.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:24 am Beware of the Cincy/Dayton split on some of the modeling for tomorrow's snow. As we all know, this can definitely be real.

Model placement certainly differs. CMC is south mainly in KY. But you have others that peg us nicely. As usual, always a wait and see game.