Absolute Vorticity

The cold front heading this way later Sunday has a nice shot of cold air and even NWS in cities to the north are underestimating the cold and even the snow. This gives me more confidence that temps will not get out of the 40's on Tuesday and yes even a better shot of a few flurries later in the day. If we remain cloudy all day temps may never get past 45 but a few hours of sunshine will help us get to 47 or 48

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:55 am The cold front heading this way later Sunday has a nice shot of cold air and even NWS in cities to the north are underestimating the cold and even the snow. This gives me more confidence that temps will not get out of the 40's on Tuesday and yes even a better shot of a few flurries later in the day. If we remain cloudy all day temps may never get past 45 but a few hours of sunshine will help us get to 47 or 48

I have def come over to your side, the colder side for Tues. Your early call on that looks great! Question will be temps at night if the clouds don't clear. If they do, U20s to L30s range is perfect. Clouds will help you get cold during the day, but not as cold at night. We will need to watch that to adjust our numbers once this gets into the short term. I think BG mentioned this as well in one of his videos yesterday too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:00 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:55 am The cold front heading this way later Sunday has a nice shot of cold air and even NWS in cities to the north are underestimating the cold and even the snow. This gives me more confidence that temps will not get out of the 40's on Tuesday and yes even a better shot of a few flurries later in the day. If we remain cloudy all day temps may never get past 45 but a few hours of sunshine will help us get to 47 or 48

I have def come over to your side, the colder side for Tues. Your early call on that looks great! Question will be temps at night if the clouds don't clear. If they do, U20s to L30s range is perfect. Clouds will help you get cold during the day, but not as cold at night. We will need to watch that to adjust our numbers once this gets into the short term. I think BG mentioned this as well in one of his videos yesterday too.

I agree 100p/c Les and also if we are getting some lake effect precip the winds may stay up somewhat as well. This is one of those calls where folks further to the southwest may be colder at night than folks further northeast because of the clouds and of course folks to the northeast colder during the day. Tell you the truth Wednesday night may end up being the coldest because of clear sky and little wind.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:00 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:55 am The cold front heading this way later Sunday has a nice shot of cold air and even NWS in cities to the north are underestimating the cold and even the snow. This gives me more confidence that temps will not get out of the 40's on Tuesday and yes even a better shot of a few flurries later in the day. If we remain cloudy all day temps may never get past 45 but a few hours of sunshine will help us get to 47 or 48

I have def come over to your side, the colder side for Tues. Your early call on that looks great! Question will be temps at night if the clouds don't clear. If they do, U20s to L30s range is perfect. Clouds will help you get cold during the day, but not as cold at night. We will need to watch that to adjust our numbers once this gets into the short term. I think BG mentioned this as well in one of his videos yesterday too.

I agree 100p/c Les and also if we are getting some lake effect precip the winds may stay up somewhat as well. This is one of those calls where folks further to the southwest may be colder at night than folks further northeast because of the clouds and of course folks to the northeast colder during the day. Tell you the truth Wednesday night may end up being the coldest because of clear sky and little wind.

I was thinking about that too. There will be a wide range of temps across our area. Say 25 to 38 at night. Whose clear and who isn't? Should be interesting actually and a good learning experience.

I can see why this was issued. CVG has a dew right now of 18 and a relative humidity of 17%!

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN OHIO,
EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:14 pm I can see why this was issued. CVG has a dew right now of 18 and a relative humidity of 17%!

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN OHIO,
EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

Les you don't see that often around here. Got my leaves up this morning before the gusty winds arrived.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:35 pm Les you don't see that often around here. Got my leaves up this morning before the gusty winds arrived.

Tons of leaves are falling here so I'm waiting. Wow... we have risen over 30 degrees from this morning's low and it's not done yet. Dry air at its finest.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:51 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:35 pm Les you don't see that often around here. Got my leaves up this morning before the gusty winds arrived.

Tons of leaves are falling here so I'm waiting. Wow... we have risen over 30 degrees from this morning's low and it's not done yet. Dry air at its finest.

This is the kind of dry air you see out west or in the arctic regions. Very seldom a temp above 50 and a dew point of 18 less alone above 60.

65 / 17 with the humidity at 16% at CVG.

65 / 17 with the humidity at 16% at CVG.

It's so windy here, Dorthy just flew by. Actually, that wind is putting a bite to the air temperature. Went out with a t shirt on and came back in for a jacket. Cleaned up my yard and that was a waste of time. The front is collecting leaves again.

My leaves blew to the neighbors house (and the house next to it)! Job done!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:53 pm My leaves blew to the neighbors house (and the house next to it)! Job done!

I wish mine would do that, but I have too many!

Drought will continue another week , at least for the OV. The never ending monsoonal rains have greatly improved drought conditions for Arizona/New Mexico and West Texas and more to come for them.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Oct 15, 2022 7:14 am Drought will continue another week , at least for the OV. The never ending monsoonal rains have greatly improved drought conditions for Arizona/New Mexico and West Texas and more to come for them.

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California for the most part is still in a drought and many parts of the west as well besides what you have mentioned. Usually they get out of the drought once we get an El Nino to develop.

Good morning! Gents... I agree. I mentioned the other day it could be until 10/24 or whatever, until we see a significant system. That idea may come in by Day 10 or Day 11 as our first Plains snow storm event of the young season and some rain ahead of a cold front for us. Not seeing much until then as mentioned.

A nice weekend on tap with the low and mid 60s today. Breezy but not as bad as the last several days. Instead of 30-40 mph gusts, should be able to keep it around 20. 70 tomorrow very possible esp CVG on south. Then the next front and we turn cold as most folks know by now for next week.

Overnight EU went all in with the pattern flip late this week. Ridging develops over the Aleutians/GOA resulting in downstream Big-time rare (lately)trough for the west coast setting the NW up for big mountain snows and lower elevations rain. We still remain mostly dry with no appreciable qpf for at least the next 10 days. This time of year cold fronts won't carry much rain for the OV , we'll need a (several) well placed , well traveled low pressure system to enhance our qpf and beneficial rains .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 8:12 am Overnight EU went all in with the pattern flip late this week. Ridging develops over the Aleutians/GOA resulting in downstream Big-time rare (lately)trough for the west coast setting the NW up for big mountain snows and lower elevations rain. We still remain mostly dry with no appreciable qpf for at least the next 10 days. This time of year cold fronts won't carry much rain for the OV , we'll need a (several) well placed , well traveled low pressure system to enhance our qpf and beneficial rains .

Well there you have it. The -PNA we've been discussing here looks to be well modeled now. Going with the Euro here for sure instead of the colder GFS which keeps the +PNA around more. I think the Euro is right simply due to the fact that this flip to warmer could be considered Indian Summer since we'll all see frosts and freezes this week. Make sense to see a milder pattern after this cold shot to end Rocktober and begin November. I can see that. Also hope that the fantasy GFS is right about one thing... a nice snow storm for the upper plains later on down the road. They could use the moisture also.

For everyone Mon night.... this week ought to end ILN's Frost and Freeze program too.

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central,
Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

Good Morning and a nice day in store before 3 days of rather chilly weather arrives. I have been 50/50 on the flip next weekend and it really was more do we have one last shot of cold before the warmth returns. Looks like that last bit of chilly weather will stay to the northeast and we should get a nice warmup. Very little rain in this pattern though once we started getting colder air to return to the central part of the USA in about 7-10 days expect rain chances to finally go up. Getting the temp difference will finally lend itself to some rain but exactly where is way to early to tell. Yes its been a dry spell but mid-August - mid-October is usually one of the driest parts of the growing season so not worried at all about any long term drought or damage done.

Interesting set up for Lake Effect Snow/Rain. The lakes are very warm this time of year and when you see this early outbreak many times the precip forms as rain and stays in that form until you are further away from the lakes. So yes the normal towns that get hard with snow in this kind of pattern may end up mainly rain and folks miles away from the typical areas could end up with some snow flying. Either way the ground is warm but a few areas could see an inch or two. Locally of course we are just looking out for a flake or two and yes most likely area north and east and most likely time imo is later Tuesday or Tuesday evening.

Went ahead and got the leaves ground up before football started. Glad I did, they were pretty thick but everything is so dry and dusty so they ground up very good. Nice day to do that too! The cold of the upcoming week should continue to get those leaves changing and dropping!

The Columbus Marathon ran by the house today. Not a bad day at all for that. I believe the winner did it in 2hour and 15 minutes??? Last shorts day of the year? Time will tell.

A number of new daily high temperature records around Southeast Alaska on Saturday, including 56F (13.3C) at Juneau Airport, 63F (17.2C) at Sitka Airport and 64F (17.8) at Petersburg. Juneau Airport up to 62F (16.7C) at 3pm AKDT Sunday. By far a daily record and is the highest temperature on record this late in the autumn. Previous latest with a temp 62F or higher was October 1, 2018. Climate obs since 1941.

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:15 pm The Columbus Marathon ran by the house today. Not a bad day at all for that. I believe the winner did it in 2hour and 15 minutes??? Last shorts day of the year? Time will tell.

I think you can break out the shorts next weekend too with temps at least down here into the lower 70s, like what we had today.