Absolute Vorticity

I hope those 70s are true up here tomorrow. That warm front needs to get up here lol

What a gorgeous day for the tournament here In Sandusky. Temps in the upper 70s and a nice SW breeze.

Currently 82 here in Greenville, 83 in CMH and CVG and 84 in DAY.

Day 2 Sunday ...

About an hour away from my brothers. Might go out to look for morels before going home tomorrow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 7:37 pm About an hour away from my brothers. Might go out to look for morels before going home tomorrow.

Very proud of your Tigers, bro, and an extra special day for Miggy!!

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Good morning all! One more summer like day, so enjoy it!

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Currently 79 here in G'ville and CVG, 80 in DAY and 82 in CMH.

Hey guys.... I am back home in KY. Mowed the yard too. Will have to cut the spinach this week after tomorrow's rains. My regular weather posts will resume tomorrow. Looking like some rain and strong storms to track (esp eastern counties) tomorrow afternoon then cooler.

Good morning! With the rain not coming until a bit later on in the day, can we see any strong to severe storms this afternoon? SPC has inched the marginal risk area a bit more NW as a result to cover the I-71 corridor area including a good chunk of Metro Cincinnati and points to the east from there. Strong winds possible in isolated fashion is the primary hazard with this. Maybe some hail as well in a couple of spots?

Then we cool down with frost threats Wed and Thurs mornings. We bounce back towards 70 this weekend but unfortunately get wet again with our next system. Long term pattern continues to look active with more cool fronts entering the picture. It just doesn't wanna change folks! But when it does, we will probably be cooking come summer.

Good Morning Les and welcome back!. We can use the rain as we are behind for the year and especially April. Probably does not seem like it because we have been on the cool and damp side much of the month. Lets hope between today and next week we can get 2 plus inches of rainfall. Recently rainfall totals have been coming in less than models show and part of that is because of the northwest flow and fronts that lose much of their punch in terms of rain. The next 6 weeks are so important because if we continue to be on the dry side this can lead to a hot summer. We still have plenty of water but as we know the top layers can become dry quickly without the rainfall. So not worried about a long term drought which I believe must be at least 1 year of well below normal rainfall but as always the short term drought in the summer usually happens but to what extent is my question.

Good morning Tim! It does not seem dry to me at all. Out in the woods yesterday looking for morels and there was still a lot of dampness and standing water in low spots. But I agree with you, we want as much water as we can before the heat comes and the faucet shuts down. Unless you get those PM pop up's that never seem to get thru My Dome.

Right now, the hot dry summer looks to develop out West and perhaps Texas and the S Plains. We'll have to see how strong the Bermuda high gets this year. If it's strong, we could be cooking as well. If there is a weakness on the Western side of the high, we can get repeated rounds of storms. It can go either way and often fluctuate between the two patterns. (Hot and dry /vs/ PM storms)

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/04/25/stormt ... pdate-425/

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:54 am Good morning Tim! It does not seem dry to me at all. Out in the woods yesterday looking for morels and there was still a lot of dampness and standing water in low spots. But I agree with you, we want as much water as we can before the heat comes and the faucet shuts down. Unless you get those PM pop up's that never seem to get thru My Dome.

Right now, the hot dry summer looks to develop out West and perhaps Texas and the S Plains. We'll have to see how strong the Bermuda high gets this year. If it's strong, we could be cooking as well. If there is a weakness on the Western side of the high, we can get repeated rounds of storms. It can go either way and often fluctuate between the two patterns. (Hot and dry /vs/ PM storms)

Hoping this puts us on the MCS train come June/July

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:58 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:54 am Good morning Tim! It does not seem dry to me at all. Out in the woods yesterday looking for morels and there was still a lot of dampness and standing water in low spots. But I agree with you, we want as much water as we can before the heat comes and the faucet shuts down. Unless you get those PM pop up's that never seem to get thru My Dome.

Right now, the hot dry summer looks to develop out West and perhaps Texas and the S Plains. We'll have to see how strong the Bermuda high gets this year. If it's strong, we could be cooking as well. If there is a weakness on the Western side of the high, we can get repeated rounds of storms. It can go either way and often fluctuate between the two patterns. (Hot and dry /vs/ PM storms)

Hoping this puts us on the MCS train come June/July

I'd like that very much also so we're not so bored this year!

Timing is key today as the showers and thundershowers to the west and southwest usually tend to weaken in the 9a-12pm range. How much they weaken and how quickly the line fires back up in the afternoon will determine how much rainfall we get. Seen these types of system many many times and sometimes we end up getting no rainfall and I have seen the line fire up just to the west and we get a good dose of rain. Really to close to call and my guess some area nearby will get the old screw job and get very little. I believe the one good thing with this system is it as slowed down to the point that we may get enough heating in the afternoon and the front stays just to our west long enough where most folks get rain but models have been terrible with timing of this system so far.

This system has been slower then models have indicated Tim so you're right about bad model performance. The longer the rain waits the better chance we've got at rain and t-storm activity.

Clouds are building in now per the latest visible sat shot so not sure how much more heating we'll get in the West. Out East some sun and clouds mixed so further heating will happen there for a few more hours before clouds there also fill in. For dews... a thin ribbon of moisture does exist with higher dews in the L60s right ahead of the front. Starting to see a narrow ribbon of CAPE building around 250 J/kg currently over the western areas of the SPC marg. risk outlook (so right over us in English LOL). Bulk shear is decent. 30 knots over us to 40-50 knots over Indiana. Lapse rates aren't great but they are trying to steepen over the Metro. 7.0C currently. All in all, forecast is in good shape. Radar wise, a weakening trend with the rain trying to push in from the West. We'll see where re-generation takes place this afternoon. Going to be close to us if not a hair east. Pretty much where the Marg. Risk lies.

Western AV posters getting some rain while Central and Eastern posters have yet to see a drop.

Auglaize, Logan and Shelby counties are under a SVR T-storm Warning until 12:30pm.

1548 64 KSCA SIDNEY AIRPORT SHELBY OH 4024 8415 (ILN)

Light rain finally beginning here. Amounts will be light and it isn't going to last long as the line continues to weaken. We'll watch the batch behind it with the actual cold front later on.

Clouds are trying to thin ahead of the front. If they can continue that trend, we've got a shot. Best CAPE currently SE of I-71. Front entering NW counties now...