Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[tron777]

Down to 50 now at the Boone Co mesonet site so the temp drop has begun here finally.

[tron777]

Any SE Indy posters seeing any flakes making it to the ground yet, such as in Greensburg?

[tron777]

15Z SREF Mean

1.3" - CVG / HAO / MGY
2.2" - CMH
DAY - 1"

[chrisdeweese73]

Any SE Indy posters seeing any flakes making it to the ground yet, such as in Greensburg?

Started snowing here about 30 minutes ago. Temp at 32°.

[winterstormjoe]

2-4" and bad roads being reported in NW AR. Models are under doing the beginning stages of this system IMO.

Hi Les, what time do you think the roads will start to get slick tonight? Gettering together with friends tonight around 7 and I don't want to be out late when roads start to get bad. Thanks

Also, my thinking based on current observations is that western Ham Co. will be good for 1-2 inches, but leaning more towards 1 inch as severe weather will be breaking out later today in the SE states which may rob some of the moisture for us.

[cloudy72]

DAY reporting light snow now and 36. Down to 40 here.

[cloudy72]

OHGO traffic cams at the IN/OH state line on I-70 looks like some snow falling there.

[Spacejunk]

Snow has just started in Oxford

[tron777]

Thank you all for the obs. Keep 'em coming!

[tron777]

2-4" and bad roads being reported in NW AR. Models are under doing the beginning stages of this system IMO.

Hi Les, what time do you think the roads will start to get slick tonight? Gettering together with friends tonight around 7 and I don't want to be out late when roads start to get bad. Thanks

Also, my thinking based on current observations is that western Ham Co. will be good for 1-2 inches, but leaning more towards 1 inch as severe weather will be breaking out later today in the SE states which may rob some of the moisture for us.

Hey Joe... roads initially will be wet but as temps drop tonight, any leftover moisture and esp if snow is still falling will cause some slick spots. the further SE from Cincy you go, the worst the conditions you will face. You should be fine early on this evening certainly, but after 11 or 12 0'clock tonight, I would be on the look out.

[tron777]

There will be a point where the front will slow down and the speed the snow is moving will as well as the whole trough pivots. Thinking that occurs late this evening into the early overnight. Models have back edge of snow at that time near I-71 corridor so we will need to watch where the back edge is around bedtime tonight. This is why SE Crew has that 3-4" shot.

[tron777]

QPF is a bit better 0.20" at CVG on 18Z NAM. Remember, some of that at the beginning is rain and will also be wasted as it turns over to snow so still with ratios, 1-2" is still a great call. No changes from my 2" call here... letting it ride as mentioned. I've seen snows overachieve already in NW IN, ILL, and NW AR. Let's see how things evolve for the rest of today.

[snowbo]

It's a very fine snow here. Small flakes.

[cloudy72]

It's a very fine snow here. Small flakes.

Should be picking up there shortly - I-70 cam just west of Brookville looks like mod snow there.

[snowbo]

It's a very fine snow here. Small flakes.

Should be picking up there shortly - I-70 cam just west of Brookville looks like mod snow there.

It has picked up. Elevated surfaces including the grass with a small covering now.

[cloudy72]

Starting to see some light snow here in the Burg - temp at 39.

[tron777]

47 as of 3pm at CVG with NW winds dew of 33. I can see some rain to start but it'll turn to snow rather quickly as temps continue to fall. 850s are below zero now NBW of i-71. 925s are lagging a bit into SE IN before they drop below zero.

[tron777]

Love seeing reports north and esp want to see reports to the west. That would bode well for the rest of us lol

[tron777]

Hoping we get some of that frontogensys in here!

7fnt_sf.gif

[tron777]

Radar looking promising starting to see light rain showers over TN getting pulled north changing to snow showers over West KY. Moisture transport is finally beginning now so the band of snow should grow in size and intensity as time goes on.

[cloudy72]

Moderate snow at DAY and 33 there.

[tron777]

Flake size on I70 traffic cams is nice! I can see it sticking in a hurry.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Radar imagery at 330 PM shows pcpn coverage for counties along
and NW of I-71. Snow remains the primary p-type, but some rain
mixes in further SE. Colder air rushes in this evening as the
mean trough and surface cold front work its way through our
counties from the northwest. Accumulating snow becomes favored
around the I-71 corridor from the late afternoon through late
evening hours, gradually shifting SE through the overnight
hours. Hi-res models continue to suggest that the highest QPF
and thus greatest snow intensity continues to align itself near
the Scioto Valley and NE KY counties, where frontogenesis
becomes more enhanced later tonight. The most intense snow
rates may offer 1" or so per hour for some of our southeastern
counties, primarily between 12AM-6AM.

For our big metro areas (Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton),
generally 1-2" of snow are favored, but portions of Hamilton and
Montgomery counties may receive just below an inch. As you move
east-southeast of the Columbus metro, accumulations may begin
to trend closer to 2-3". In our counties where the Winter Storm
Warning exists, amounts between 3-5" are still favored. Overall,
no major adjustments were made to the snowfall forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Majority of accumulating snow ends before daybreak Saturday
morning. However, kept PoPs in throughout the day Saturday for
majority of our counties as hi-res models continue to show
potential for snow showers developing throughout the day. Best
chances for snow showers will be towards the late morning hours
and persist through the late afternoon as low-level lapse rates
steepen and instability builds. Additional light snow
accumulations will be possible with these showers.

CAA offers bitterly cold temps on Saturday with breezy
conditions. Highs remain capped in the lower to middle 20s with
sustained northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-35
mph.

Winds begin to subside Saturday night with lows dipping into
the mid to upper teens. Wind chill values may reach the single
digits, but are expected to remain above zero.

[tpweather]

I see the Louisville NWS office has raised the snow totals in the warning areas and a slight rise in the eastern sections of the advisory. Makes perfect sense. Still going to be that cutoff though and where is that going to happen

[cloudy72]

Heavy snow in Carmi, IL (just northwest of Evansville IN)