Absolute Vorticity

Anyone seeing any flakes this morning? Per radar we should be seeing some light snow and rain in the far SE. No issues expected. 36 degrees here currently.

Seeing some light snow now...

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 7:42 am Seeing some light snow now...

Nice, just had a morning spring time thundershower. Been here almost 3 years and my guess the rainfall has been 50p/c above average for that period. The one good thing is the summers have not seen the dry and hot conditions that you can get down here so instead the summers have been hot and muggy with temps in the low 90's and nighttime lows in the upper 70's.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 7:45 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 7:42 am Seeing some light snow now...

Nice, just had a morning spring time thundershower. Been here almost 3 years and my guess the rainfall has been 50p/c above average for that period. The one good thing is the summers have not seen the dry and hot conditions that you can get down here so instead the summers have been hot and muggy with temps in the low 90's and nighttime lows in the upper 70's.

You guys are due for a drought down there. It has been very wet ever since you moved LOL

Nice steady snow here. Elevated surfaces are covered and grass is beginning to get covered as well.

Snow is very light here and not really sticking to anything. LOL Temp is 35.

I've had off and on mood flakes here. No accumulation and 37.

ive had light snow here most of the morning with just light accumulations on grass and trees and such

Never saw any flakes here in Greenville this morning.

Currently 39 here and progged for 44 later.

Rest of March still on track for more cold shots . MJo emerging in cold phases, periodic ridging in west and over Alaska should make it easy for cold fronts to advance pretty far south

Ended up with 1.5 inches of rain with the latest system.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 3:01 pm Ended up with 1.5 inches of rain with the latest system.

Sheesh! You've picked up where last year left off in Greenville.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:21 pm Rest of March still on track for more cold shots . MJo emerging in cold phases, periodic ridging in west and over Alaska should make it easy for cold fronts to advance pretty far south

Agree, the March 20-21st period is another interesting one.

Ii see the NWS confirmed a tornado in Ripley country Monday morning. I had no clue this happen until I saw some headlines.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:30 pm Ii see the NWS confirmed a tornado in Ripley country Monday morning. I had no clue this happen until I saw some headlines.

Three tornadoes, look at this! I didn't know either.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20220307

Good morning! Today is the pick day of the week. Sunshine and the 50s with light winds. Take advantage!

Low of 27 imby this morning with frost.

ended up with 1.5" of snow yesterday. mostly just on grass and trees and such

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:51 am ended up with 1.5" of snow yesterday. mostly just on grass and trees and such

Awesome! Looks like you're trying for a late season rally!

Official update about ENSO, but no surprises as it's pretty much what we have discussed for the past week



DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 March 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter.

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific, with negative anomalies stretching from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In particular, the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6°C at the beginning of February to -1.1°C in the last week [Fig. 2], while the other Niño SST regions were between -0.6°C and -1.3°C in the last week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) were near zero [Fig. 3], as the recent warming associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave has attenuated. Below-average temperatures have expanded near the surface and at depth near ~150°W [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies strengthened during the past month, with the extension of enhanced low-level easterly winds across the equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remaining over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection strengthened around the Date Line, while convection was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling, which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models. For the summer and beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period

So much for an impending El Nino! Hot summer anyone? Anyway... had U20s again this morning and a light frost.

19 for a.low this morning here. Should be in that range again tomorrow morning. Ready to spring into spring like temps this week

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:25 am 19 for a.low this morning here. Should be in that range again tomorrow morning. Ready to spring into spring like temps this week

70+ looking likely on Wed and Thurs before our next chance for rain comes on Friday. A nice dry streak upcoming which is needed.

The overnight Euro waits until Fri afternoon / Saturday with up to 3/4" of rain possible on that run.

23 here . Already seeing some melting and green grass areas in yard. Off and on March sun and warm ground temps still take a toll at 23