Absolute Vorticity

Low is way south from 6z, Nam coming to its senses , slowly

NAM changes us over mid morning to midday Thurs at CVG.

Heavy freezing rain for the metro, sleet fest for Dayton as of 1pm Thu. Temps in the metro are marginal which is some good news. Between 30-32.

The run ends Thu evening with freezing rain changing to sleet for the metro and sleet changing to snow for Dayton.

Much further south with the arctic high , also

To my untrained eye, it looks like the ice swath is not as wide on some of the other models that have shown it??? (gfs,cmc, etc)

Very heavy precipitation ongoing at the end of the run! I would imagine everyone would pick up a couple to few tail end inches of snow.

Ice accumulation 0z Fri-

NAM showing an inch of precip with temps 26-30

Ice ice baby... That's the theme for us currently I'm afraid.

Good Morning and let the model watching begin. The nam and part of the problem the model may have with this system is the cold dense air is coming underneath and temps further up are still a few hours behind so on the model itself you will see just plain old rain for many hours even though temps may have fallen below 32 earlier. I still believe a big part of the system for us is the amount of time between the 1st and 2nd wave and how much cold air can continue to sink in. Not only coming in from the northwest but also the north so the boundary may not be a true sw to ne band with the second wave because the further north you go the boundary may sort of just lay down. So yes the precip is still in a sw to ne movement but where will that area to the north sink and after the 1st wave. This is a very complex system because of the 2 waves. If it was one big system you can sort of see how the boundary sets up and can make a decent forecast but with the 2 wave system so many variables to look at and at this point someone will probably get a nice ice storm and that is horrible. BTW my daughter has a flight out on Friday morning to Key West and can't wait to take her to the airport on Friday morning.

Extrapolate the Nam out a bit further and theres 3-6 more hours of precip to come

Good Morning all! Watching this very closely. There is a large show choir compertition in Fort Wayne Friday night and all day Saturday. A couple of large groups being bussed up on Friday after school from the Cincinnati area. Yikes!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:55 am Extrapolate the Nam out a bit further and theres 3-6 more hours of precip to come

Yup. If the models hold today (rest of the 12z and then 00z), I'd imagine ILN will expand the watches to cover all of the CWA at some point tomorrow morning.

DarthLebowski wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:57 am Good Morning all! Watching this very closely. There is a large show choir compertition in Fort Wayne Friday night and all day Saturday. A couple of large groups being bussed up on Friday after school from the Cincinnati area. Yikes!

Yikes!

This is like the Bengal’s game!! Lol up and down back and forth snow to rain……. I’m not sure if I can take it lol.

Noticeable shift south on the GEFS in terms of snowfall.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:07 am Noticeable shift south on the GEFS in terms of snowfall.

Hey Trev, going to be interesting as we have the polar high moving this way but also a high out in the Atlantic that is also getting strong. How strong does the second wave get is another key and there are so many but we want that low to be a little weaker to hopefully get into the snowier part of the storm.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:07 am Noticeable shift south on the GEFS in terms of snowfall.

Another 100 mile shift south and lock it in!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:10 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:07 am Noticeable shift south on the GEFS in terms of snowfall.

Hey Trev, going to be interesting as we have the polar high moving this way but also a high out in the Atlantic that is also getting strong. How strong does the second wave get is another key and there are so many but we want that low to be a little weaker to hopefully get into the snowier part of the storm.

Great points! There really is only so far north this thing can go with such a strong high involved. If anything, we will more than likely continue to see adjustments southward in future runs. South enough that we dodge the ice? Unlikely. But I do fully expect the southward and colder trends to continue.

What's it looking like for SE counties at this point? Mostly rain?

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:15 am What's it looking like for SE counties at this point? Mostly rain?

Everyone is fair game for wintry weather.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:17 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:15 am What's it looking like for SE counties at this point? Mostly rain?

Everyone is fair game for wintry weather.

late Thursday into Friday?

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:18 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:17 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:15 am What's it looking like for SE counties at this point? Mostly rain?

Everyone is fair game for wintry weather.

late Thursday into Friday?

The transition from wet to wintry should occur at some point Thu, most likely late morning/midday and last through the first part of Friday.

Looks like Shipshewana and Mishawaka in Indiana, nice Amish region, where my folks and I have been, could get over a foot.