Absolute Vorticity

Just saw these posted. I don't think I saw them here????

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
136 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

KYZ099-OHZ065-073-081-082-150245-
/O.EXA.KILN.WS.A.0001.220116T1700Z-220117T1200Z/
Mason-Fairfield-Ross-Adams-Pike-
Including the cities of Maysville, Lancaster, Pickerington,
Chillicothe, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, and Piketon
136 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches possible.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Fairfield, Ross, Adams and Pike Counties. In
Kentucky, Mason County.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

KYZ100-OHZ074-088-150245-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.A.0001.220116T1700Z-220117T1200Z/
Lewis-Hocking-Scioto-
Including the cities of Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Logan, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
136 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
inches possible, with locally heavier amounts.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Hocking and Scioto Counties. In Kentucky,
Lewis County.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:34 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:28 pm Jokes aside, you and I are in the snowier camp with this. Should say something coming from this heat miser…

Trev we just need to ride this one out at this point.

You and I were the first (if I’m missing anyone, apologies and let me know!) to put out an early call during the model swings witnessed over the last 48hrs, and I agree; I see no reason to change anything at this point. Too many variables and fluctuations. Unfortunately, living in or around a major metropolitan area such as Cincinnati makes a much bigger difference from a pressure/verification standpoint versus living in a more rural area. Cincinnati snowfall forecasts busting are known to cause massive backlash from persons on the airwaves, social media, etc.

But I wouldn’t trade it for anything. Pressure for accuracy keeps ya working harder.

I’ll have to see if I can find it, but Willie went on a rant many years ago calling Cincy TV Mets “weather terrorists”

He’s not wrong about some of them…but I digress again.

lol...18Z NAM reforms the low way down in the Gulf. Sheesh... can't believe the southward bleeding hasn't stopped.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:18 pm lol...18Z NAM reforms the low way down in the Gulf. Sheesh... can't believe the southward bleeding hasn't stopped.

taking a little drink down in the GoM

Well that was an interesting run. Huge bust across the board verbatim. Pretty wicked squall line for Florida though!

18z NAM Snowfall (Kuchera)

The upper low is is more important to me, and all the models have moved it more south and east, some of course more than others , that's the worst trend imo

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:38 pm The upper low is is more important to me, and all the models have moved it more south and east, some of course more than others , that's the worst trend imo

Yeah that's even worse. I remember when it was supposed to track thru SKY a few days ago. Now it's thru the Dixie States.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:42 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:38 pm The upper low is is more important to me, and all the models have moved it more south and east, some of course more than others , that's the worst trend imo

Yeah that's even worse. I remember when it was supposed to track thru SKY a few days ago. Now it's thru the Dixie States.

Don't get me wrong , I think the NAMs qpf for the region as a whole is 100% goofy, but the trend of the upper low may not be.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:42 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:38 pm The upper low is is more important to me, and all the models have moved it more south and east, some of course more than others , that's the worst trend imo

Yeah that's even worse. I remember when it was supposed to track thru SKY a few days ago. Now it's thru the Dixie States.

Don't get me wrong , I think the NAMs qpf for the region as a whole is 100% goofy, but the trend of the upper low may not be.

I'm treating it like the last 2 systems pretty much.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:48 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:42 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:38 pm The upper low is is more important to me, and all the models have moved it more south and east, some of course more than others , that's the worst trend imo

Yeah that's even worse. I remember when it was supposed to track thru SKY a few days ago. Now it's thru the Dixie States.

Don't get me wrong , I think the NAMs qpf for the region as a whole is 100% goofy, but the trend of the upper low may not be.

I'm treating it like the last system pretty much.

Agreed with both of you. Very strange to see a track as modeled on the 18z NAM re: ULL. Really don’t see that happen often if at all. Physically not impossible, but rare for sure. Takes all the proper atmospheric weaknesses in a proper position for this to occur. Fascinating run.

MD for hvy snow S MN and N IA:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0067.html

Unless further guidance agrees, the 18z NAM is obviously an outlier.

I agree about throwing out the last nam run. The gfs is pretty similar to the euro this run. The nam wants to have a coastal low plus it transfers energy early. The Euro and Gfs transfers later but the low is inland and rides north until about southern Pa before it moves to the coast. I feel much better with the forecast after seeing the gfs so we are set to go.

As Tim said, the 18z GFS holds.

Also, don’t sleep on the potential for some heavy snow showers/squalls Monday morning as has been discussed. GFS illustrates this well. Another thing to watch.

18z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)

The GFS is a global model and thus has a lower resolution. Having said that, note how the “hole” to our west filled in a bit on this run. That is mostly due to the secondary wave/clipper or whatever you want to call it for early Monday.

After the days model suite , no changes from my early morning numbers, and my fancy graphics map, lol. still feel the westward advance of qpf is going to struggle west of 71(Monday snow showers included)

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:49 pm After the days model suite , no changes from my early morning numbers, and my fancy graphics map, lol. still feel the westward advance of qpf is going to struggle west of 71(Monday snow showers included)



snow1.PNG

Pretty much all of us are in agreement for the most part minus placement. Tim and I are the “snowier” forecasters on this one. We shall see how things shake out. Overall solid forecasting from all members on here that participate and include a forecast. Not an easy system…then again they usually aren’t around these parts haha.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:44 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:49 pm After the days model suite , no changes from my early morning numbers, and my fancy graphics map, lol. still feel the westward advance of qpf is going to struggle west of 71(Monday snow showers included)



snow1.PNG

Pretty much all of us are in agreement for the most part minus placement. Tim and I are the “snowier” forecasters on this one. We shall see how things shake out. Overall solid forecasting from all members on here that participate and include a forecast. Not an easy system…then again they usually aren’t around these parts haha.

Hopefully in the morning I'll see something, for me,, from overnight models to bump it up a few

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:38 pm The GFS is a global model and thus has a lower resolution. Having said that, note how the “hole” to our west filled in a bit on this run. That is mostly due to the secondary wave/clipper or whatever you want to call it for early Monday.

A nice Lake Michigan connection Monday morning. That might be the best part of the event for us. Lot of models painting light QPF then. Nice cold, light snow / clippery pattern on the 18Z GFS tonight. I'll take it!

ALERT - 18Z Euro bumped it up...

CVG

MON 00Z 17-JAN -1.7 -2.9 1006 91 99 0.24 542 537
MON 06Z 17-JAN -1.7 -4.8 1002 85 94 0.13 536 534
MON 12Z 17-JAN -4.3 -8.9 1005 58 100 0.01 529 525
MON 18Z 17-JAN -2.7 -11.1 1009 69 79 0.04 530 528