Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:12 pm Heck even the JMA model isn't our friend!

I forgot to bring out the NAV GEM too. Not good... Keeps it all S of the river.

15Z SREF came back down to reality somewhat. Still think it's too high. But it's due to some of those 6" members which we know aren't going to verify. Still though... a hell of a spread from 0-6" and look how close we are to the event beginning.

CVG - 1.8"
N Cincy Burbs and DAY 0.75" to 1"
CMH - 1.3"

LOU 3.2" and LEX: 4"

So Euro gives me best shot at a half inch of snow. LOL The rest say 'wait 'til next storm'!

That low is wasting no time moving... 1008 MB now down in Central Colorado.

The ultimate cut off for Cincy and CVG from the 18Z HRRR.

Hey Les. Remember the storm last February I believe it was. The forecast was for 1-2 inches and we got 9 inches. Any chance this storm is similar and does the same thing?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

KYZ089-090-094>100-OHZ079-081-088-060430-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0001.220106T1500Z-220107T0300Z/
Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Lewis-Brown-Adams-Scioto-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Warsaw, Owenton,
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta,
Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro,
Georgetown, Mount Orab, West Union, Peebles, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
330 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of South Central and Southwest Ohio and
Northeast and Northern Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:08 pm Hey Les. Remember the storm last February I believe it was. The forecast was for 1-2 inches and we got 9 inches. Any chance this storm is similar and does the same thing?

Hi Pete. I remember! Different set up. Those snow showers were more localized and convective in nature. I think the models are pretty much locked in. Low tracks thru N MS, GA, etc where we needed it to roll thru TN for us. 18Z NAM agrees with what I just said also. Good luck for those in and around Cincy. It is def a further south special. Central, Eastern KY and the mountains of TN / WVA into the Mid Atlantic region.

ILN has a 70% chance for snow tomorrow afternoon with totals around an inch for my hood. I can buy that. I'd be happy if I got that much honestly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:37 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:08 pm Hey Les. Remember the storm last February I believe it was. The forecast was for 1-2 inches and we got 9 inches. Any chance this storm is similar and does the same thing?

Hi Pete. I remember! Different set up. Those snow showers were more localized and convective in nature. I think the models are pretty much locked in. Low tracks thru N MS, GA, etc where we needed it to roll thru TN for us. 18Z NAM agrees with what I just said also. Good luck for those in and around Cincy. It is def a further south special. Central, Eastern KY and the mountains of TN / WVA into the Mid Atlantic region.

Thanks Les for the explanation

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:37 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:08 pm Hey Les. Remember the storm last February I believe it was. The forecast was for 1-2 inches and we got 9 inches. Any chance this storm is similar and does the same thing?

Hi Pete. I remember! Different set up. Those snow showers were more localized and convective in nature. I think the models are pretty much locked in. Low tracks thru N MS, GA, etc where we needed it to roll thru TN for us. 18Z NAM agrees with what I just said also. Good luck for those in and around Cincy. It is def a further south special. Central, Eastern KY and the mountains of TN / WVA into the Mid Atlantic region.

Thanks Les for the explanation

No problem! The low across Michigan today is suppressing the heights too much ahead of our system so it's tracking too far south to bring beneficial snows here.

18Z GFS misses everyone minus SE Crew, SE of I-71.

18Z RGEM:

Surface low now down to 1004 MB over SE Colorado, dropping into NE New Mexico and the TX / OK Panhandle areas. Pressure falls map indicates that the low should be making its way towards the TX Panhandle in time. Meanwhile the Great Lakes low is at 996 MB exiting stage right into Ontario Canada.

Arctic air is coming. 41 CVG, 40 here and IND is down to 25. 32 degree line is at Bloomington.

Radar has a nice swath of light to narrow bands of mod snow from WY, NE CO into Neb and KS associated with the surface low I posted on above.

18Z Euro has 0.09" at CVG and with ratios you could say 1 to 1.5" if this model is correct. We'll see. I'll take it and run! Hope everyone can get something out of it. Matt looks to be primed to get the most on our board. We expect reports and pics tomorrow Matt.

Matt... 0.23" FGX 3" or so?

The way this winter has been so far I will be happy with mood flakes lol. Looks like my area will see up to an inch and I am fine with that. Now we just need to get that big storm brewing

34 here... gusty W winds and temps continue to fall behind the arctic front. Teens by morning. Nice moisture feed at 700 MB. Pretty nice jet lol


Cold charging in!


And an update from the boys...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday a system will work up from the south. There is
still some question on the northern most extent of this system.
Highlighted locations where there is a greater likelihood of a
half inch or more of snow in the HWO. Across southern portions
of the region, primarily near and south of the Ohio River, there
will be the potential for around one to three inches of snow.
In this area opted to go with a winter weather advisory as air
temperatures will be cold. The greater concern will be around
the evening commute and after dark with any lingering snowfall.
Will continue to monitor model trends to see if the advisory
needs to be adjusted with time.

Going into the overnight hours Thursday night into Friday
morning wind chill values will be in the negative single digits
across locations generally near and northwest of Interstate 71.
Highlighted locations with the greatest probability of this
occurring in the HWO.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:33 pm The way this winter has been so far I will be happy with mood flakes lol. Looks like my area will see up to an inch and I am fine with that. Now we just need to get that big storm brewing

We're trying lol Hope you and Ashley are doing well man. Always glad to see you posting.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:44 pm The ultimate cut off for Cincy and CVG from the 18Z HRRR.


HRRR.png

I'm telling ya! Next one will be a cut off to the north. Lol.

MJSun wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:44 pm The ultimate cut off for Cincy and CVG from the 18Z HRRR.


HRRR.png

I'm telling ya! Next one will be a cut off to the north. Lol.

Yep! We've seen both ends of the spectrum in terms of the rain / snow line.

Had to stop at Kroger's today, really needed milk. On way out I saw a pallet of salt. Remembered last winter we were almost out and had to buy softener pellets as everyone were sold out of bagged salt. Two bags now in the basement.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:20 pm Matt... 0.23" FGX 3" or so?

FGX is about 25 miles SE of me. I figure they will get a bit more than I do. But I'll Take it!

Good morning all! No changes to the call from me that has been on going for a while now. Going to enjoy whatever we get and be jealous of the folks down south again. 16 as of 6am at CVG.