Absolute Vorticity

DT released a new video I see. he talks about the rest of the month and the potential. he is really honking about the snowstorm pattern coming, especially the arctic air. my only fear is it may end up more cold and dry vs snowy. I can remember past winters where we had such great cold air masses in place but not a flake to be found. im not going to get excited about anything until all the models are showing something like within 5 days.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:40 pm Today back in 1996, CVG received a 24 hour snowfall of 11.6" This was the beginnings of the Blizzard of 96 that destroyed the Mid Atlantic and Portions of New England. I know Charles will remember that one! We got the upper level low that was supposed to transfer its energy to the EC Low but took forever to do so. A 1-2" forecast turned into a foot at CVG. More to the East. Sharp NW cut off. Nothing at KIND.

Lester 96' was my all time greatest and as you know I have experienced quite a few blizzards in my time. it snowed for two and a half days leaving almost 3 ft and drifts over your head. it took 4 days just to see a plow.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:02 pm DT released a new video I see. he talks about the rest of the month and the potential. he is really honking about the snowstorm pattern coming, especially the arctic air. my only fear is it may end up more cold and dry vs snowy. I can remember past winters where we had such great cold air masses in place but not a flake to be found. im not going to get excited about anything until all the models are showing something like within 5 days.

Split flow with 2 jets and models always struggle with the timing and placement of each shortwave. Going to be a lot of wild model runs over the next week.

Current GFS coming in now has a 1050 MB high coming in over MN so it's keeping the STJ suppressed on this run. Cold and dry is possible but I don't think it will be a total cold and dry pattern. The STJ is active too. A good storm in this pattern may not be seen from far away. The upper levels look great, just need to see how the surface responds.

GFS has a slow moving East Coast bomb on this run in the fantasy range. We do get a few inches of powdery light snow in the arctic air on the back side of it. Jan 19th or so.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:00 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:32 am It's only 22 imby with full sunshine right now. So I am wondering... Do we even make it into the L40s today? Very dry air right now so could wet bulbing processes lead to sleet at the onset briefly then rain overnight? Doubtful many will be up to see or hear it, after midnight for verification.

Some road temps at that time will probably still be at freezing , especially the less sun drenched roadways. So i could see some icing possible even if it starts as rain.

Absolutely! The ground is not going to warm up fast this time of year. Great post!

I was just coming on to ask this question. Les, I will probably be up to see what happens. Up here will probably be a little cooler into the later part of the night before warming up????

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:00 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:32 am It's only 22 imby with full sunshine right now. So I am wondering... Do we even make it into the L40s today? Very dry air right now so could wet bulbing processes lead to sleet at the onset briefly then rain overnight? Doubtful many will be up to see or hear it, after midnight for verification.

Some road temps at that time will probably still be at freezing , especially the less sun drenched roadways. So i could see some icing possible even if it starts as rain.

Absolutely! The ground is not going to warm up fast this time of year. Great post!

I was just coming on to ask this question. Les, I will probably be up to see what happens. Up here will probably be a little cooler into the later part of the night before warming up????

I don't think it will last long but a little sleet or frz rain at the onset (even though no one is mentioning anything about it, models either) is possible. Like Bgoney said, even if it stays liquid, the ground may take a couple of hours to warm up.

12Z GEFS and GEPS both continue to show a nice pattern with big storm potential around Jan 19-20th. That was a big Nor 'easter on today's 12Z GFS but the look will change a lot between now and then. Continued cold with more disturbances working thru the flow thru the entire run.... Jan 24th.

Hmmm... MD issued for light frz rain over SE ILL and SW IN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0046.html

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:07 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:00 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:32 am It's only 22 imby with full sunshine right now. So I am wondering... Do we even make it into the L40s today? Very dry air right now so could wet bulbing processes lead to sleet at the onset briefly then rain overnight? Doubtful many will be up to see or hear it, after midnight for verification.

Some road temps at that time will probably still be at freezing , especially the less sun drenched roadways. So i could see some icing possible even if it starts as rain.

Absolutely! The ground is not going to warm up fast this time of year. Great post!

I was just coming on to ask this question. Les, I will probably be up to see what happens. Up here will probably be a little cooler into the later part of the night before warming up????

I don't think it will last long but a little sleet or frz rain at the onset (even though no one is mentioning anything about it, models either) is possible. Like Bgoney said, even if it stays liquid, the ground may take a couple of hours to warm up.

Thanks Les. I agree with the ground temps. The sun is out here and the snow in the backyard is melting way. But the alley which is all shaded is still snow covered. Should be interesting to see what happens.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:19 pm Hmmm... MD issued for light frz rain over SE ILL and SW IN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0046.html

Someone has been spying on this page. LOL

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:19 pm Hmmm... MD issued for light frz rain over SE ILL and SW IN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0046.html

Someone has been spying on this page. LOL

All of it still west of I-65 so plenty of time to watch the progression of the precip and how quickly we warm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:29 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:19 pm Hmmm... MD issued for light frz rain over SE ILL and SW IN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0046.html

Someone has been spying on this page. LOL

All of it still west of I-65 so plenty of time to watch the progression of the precip and how quickly we warm.

36 as of 3pm at CVG, 38 here so if temps remain where we're at now tonight, for the most part we'll be fine. I would be careful though if you are out at precip onset in case some untreated surfaces, bridges / overpasses are warm.

Update from ILN:
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain will develop across the area tonight and continue into
Sunday, ending as a cold front moves through. High pressure will
build in bringing a return to below normal temperatures for the
beginning of the work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface observations show that temperatures have warmed above
freezing across almost the entire area. Atmosphere remains dry,
so there is still some potential for wet bulbing. But initial
precipitation tracking across Indiana is spotty, so thinking any
effect wet bulbing might have will be limited and overwhelmed by
continued warm air advection. Cannot completely rule out a bit
of sleet or freezing rain at onset to the north and west of
Dayton. If it does occur, expect it to be brief with little or
no impact.

Rain will become widespread through the night as strengthening
low level jet moves into the area. Temperatures will slowly
rise.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain will still be ongoing in the morning but then move off to
the east and south as primary lift with mid level system
departs. Cold front will cross the area during the day.
Temperatures will start falling in the afternoon and winds will
become a bit gusty.

Gusts will diminish in the evening and clouds will decrease as
high pressure starts to build in. Lows will drop back into the
teens.
-- End Changed Discussion --

My son who lives just a few minutes south of Terre Haute Indiana called to say it was icing pretty good there to watch out later. Roads were very icy about 3 when he called.

36 here , noticeably warmer out

Currently

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
656 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

OHZ026-034-035-090300-
/O.CON.KILN.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220109T0300Z/
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, and St. Marys
656 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light
glaze.

* WHERE...Hardin, Mercer and Auglaize Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, untreated roads and bridges
are possible.
* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light
glaze.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
656 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042>045-051>053-060-061-090300-
/O.EXA.KILN.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220109T0300Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, Eaton,
Camden, Dayton, and Kettering
656 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light
glaze.

* WHERE...Hardin, Mercer and Auglaize Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, untreated roads and bridges
are possible.

Light rain and 37 here, no issues. CVG the same.

It’s raining lightly here and my wife tells me the roads were getting a bit slick. Air temp is 37 with dew of 24 but ground temps are still about 31 here so icy spots def possible up this way.

Mod to hvy rain to the SW should come up a little further north for some folks to get to that 1/2" goal in my forecast. If not, you'll meet the quarter inch goal in the lighter stuff. High of 39 today, didn't make it into the 40s. We should briefly tomorrow then fall.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
700 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

INZ066-073-074-OHZ046-054>056-062>065-070>072-077-090300-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Delaware-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Hamilton-
Including the cities of Brookville, Batesville, Milan,
Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Delaware, London,
West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Beavercreek,
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster,
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason,
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, and Cincinnati
700 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

...A FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

Areas of light rain will overspread the region this evening.
Although air temperatures are expected to be above freezing, some
untreated and elevated surfaces may still be below freezing. As a
result, a few slick spots may develop through the evening hours,
especially on bridges, overpasses and other untreated surfaces.

Please use some extra caution if traveling this evening.

Down to 34 here with heavy rain. Just took trash out and sidewalk seems just wet and not icy.