Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:15 pm On the flip side - seeing reports of 20" snow in Deadwood SD and still snowing!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:53 pm Animated 7 days worth of ice and snow growth . Doesn't yet have the full extent of the rockies/plains snowstorm

imsalaska-7day.gif

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:24 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:53 pm Animated 7 days worth of ice and snow growth . Doesn't yet have the full extent of the rockies/plains snowstorm

imsalaska-7day.gif

Love seeing that snow pile up in Siberia. Hope to see the Canadian side catch up in the coming weeks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:10 pm Today's 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the rain / storms holding off until Fri afternoon. What we don't know is do we see AM showers or a lot of clouds before hand to limit the heating for instability. It is ok for the SPC to have the marginal risk out since the dynamics are going to be there. The instability is the big question mark. Frontal zone passage is still late Fri night / early Sat morning so while a lot of Sat will now be dry, we will have falling temps and windy conditions. Dry air should punch in for some sunshine though.

Fantasy range looked interesting with a piece of the PV dropping into the Great Lakes. Don't see that very often at all in late October. Pretty remarkable to even see this modeled. But with the weak PV and the -AO we've been seeing for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Yes it's the fantasy GFS but the solution being shown today is actually believable. Not saying it will happen but I can see why it happens and it fits the pattern to be honest.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:24 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:53 pm Animated 7 days worth of ice and snow growth . Doesn't yet have the full extent of the rockies/plains snowstorm

imsalaska-7day.gif

Love seeing that snow pile up in Siberia. Hope to see the Canadian side catch up in the coming weeks.

Les as we know its been very mild in much of Canada this fall. Still as of today very mild with temps much above normal. Again just losing daylight will drop those temps over the next 2-4 weeks but so far very mild as we are in the Ohio Valley

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:10 pm Today's 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the rain / storms holding off until Fri afternoon. What we don't know is do we see AM showers or a lot of clouds before hand to limit the heating for instability. It is ok for the SPC to have the marginal risk out since the dynamics are going to be there. The instability is the big question mark. Frontal zone passage is still late Fri night / early Sat morning so while a lot of Sat will now be dry, we will have falling temps and windy conditions. Dry air should punch in for some sunshine though.

Fantasy range looked interesting with a piece of the PV dropping into the Great Lakes. Don't see that very often at all in late October. Pretty remarkable to even see this modeled. But with the weak PV and the -AO we've been seeing for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Yes it's the fantasy GFS but the solution being shown today is actually believable. Not saying it will happen but I can see why it happens and it fits the pattern to be honest.

I just looked at the models and saw that. I was hold on Nellie let's no go overboard yet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:15 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:10 pm Today's 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the rain / storms holding off until Fri afternoon. What we don't know is do we see AM showers or a lot of clouds before hand to limit the heating for instability. It is ok for the SPC to have the marginal risk out since the dynamics are going to be there. The instability is the big question mark. Frontal zone passage is still late Fri night / early Sat morning so while a lot of Sat will now be dry, we will have falling temps and windy conditions. Dry air should punch in for some sunshine though.

Fantasy range looked interesting with a piece of the PV dropping into the Great Lakes. Don't see that very often at all in late October. Pretty remarkable to even see this modeled. But with the weak PV and the -AO we've been seeing for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Yes it's the fantasy GFS but the solution being shown today is actually believable. Not saying it will happen but I can see why it happens and it fits the pattern to be honest.

I just looked at the models and saw that. I was hold on Nellie let's no go overboard yet.

Models are def struggling from about late next week and beyond. I see a different solution almost every run so it'll be a little bit before we can gain any sort of confidence other then the fact that more seasonal temps are about to move in.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:38 am SPC has us in a slight risk now for portions of AV Country including Cincy. Marg. risk to the north. This is for Fri afternoon and evening. We'll take a closer look at this today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:45 am Unless the timing g of the squall can get into cvgland closer to sunset, I'm not expecting severe . I can see gusts 35-45 range with the line by the time it reaches us. Again , if timing moves up, so does severe chance

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:38 am SPC has us in a slight risk now for portions of AV Country including Cincy. Marg. risk to the north. This is for Fri afternoon and evening. We'll take a closer look at this today.

No doubt something to watch Les. Should be a nice squall line that pushes through and no doubt some strong winds as the system has plenty of wind energy. The second severe season is usually late Oct through mid-Nov. This is a few weeks early and this tells me some colder shots of air should happen the second half of the month.