Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Here is the 3km NAM simulated radar at 7pm Friday. Check out that nasty squall down in Kentucky! Not too shabby even for us.....like I said earlier we shall see! As Les mentioned, timing def not in our favor here.

[tron777]

Yeah, we'll see. NAM has a habit of overdoing it anyway. It's going to depend on how Fri morning unfolds as to showers / cloud cover prospects and how much we warm up Fri afternoon. 12Z Euro is close to the timing of the NAM, maybe a hair slower. Euro also has a cut off low impacting our weather for the second half of next week where the GFS is progressive with a cold front. The theme so far has been for cut off lows so one has to favor the Euro's solution attm.

[cloudy72]

On the flip side - seeing reports of 20" snow in Deadwood SD and still snowing!

[Bgoney]

Animated 7 days worth of ice and snow growth . Doesn't yet have the full extent of the rockies/plains snowstorm

imsalaska-7day.gif

[tron777]

On the flip side - seeing reports of 20" snow in Deadwood SD and still snowing!

We're jealous as usual lol

[tron777]

Animated 7 days worth of ice and snow growth . Doesn't yet have the full extent of the rockies/plains snowstorm

imsalaska-7day.gif

Love seeing that snow pile up in Siberia. Hope to see the Canadian side catch up in the coming weeks.

[tron777]

Radar showing showers and tshowers west of us along of I-65 with the warm front moving in. Models doing a bad job with this for sure.

[tron777]

It looks like My Dome will hold this evening with that gap in the showers coming right over me. Not at all surprised lol But some of you will see a little bit of rain this evening with the warm frontal passage. The humidity will rise as a result and be humid thru Friday.

[tpweather]

Animated 7 days worth of ice and snow growth . Doesn't yet have the full extent of the rockies/plains snowstorm

imsalaska-7day.gif

Love seeing that snow pile up in Siberia. Hope to see the Canadian side catch up in the coming weeks.

Les as we know its been very mild in much of Canada this fall. Still as of today very mild with temps much above normal. Again just losing daylight will drop those temps over the next 2-4 weeks but so far very mild as we are in the Ohio Valley

[young pup]

Today's 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the rain / storms holding off until Fri afternoon. What we don't know is do we see AM showers or a lot of clouds before hand to limit the heating for instability. It is ok for the SPC to have the marginal risk out since the dynamics are going to be there. The instability is the big question mark. Frontal zone passage is still late Fri night / early Sat morning so while a lot of Sat will now be dry, we will have falling temps and windy conditions. Dry air should punch in for some sunshine though.

Fantasy range looked interesting with a piece of the PV dropping into the Great Lakes. Don't see that very often at all in late October. Pretty remarkable to even see this modeled. But with the weak PV and the -AO we've been seeing for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Yes it's the fantasy GFS but the solution being shown today is actually believable. Not saying it will happen but I can see why it happens and it fits the pattern to be honest.

I just looked at the models and saw that. I was hold on Nellie let's no go overboard yet.

[tron777]

Animated 7 days worth of ice and snow growth . Doesn't yet have the full extent of the rockies/plains snowstorm

imsalaska-7day.gif

Love seeing that snow pile up in Siberia. Hope to see the Canadian side catch up in the coming weeks.

Les as we know its been very mild in much of Canada this fall. Still as of today very mild with temps much above normal. Again just losing daylight will drop those temps over the next 2-4 weeks but so far very mild as we are in the Ohio Valley

For sure Tim, but times... they are a changin'. Back to normal at least which is better then +10 to +15.

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the rain / storms holding off until Fri afternoon. What we don't know is do we see AM showers or a lot of clouds before hand to limit the heating for instability. It is ok for the SPC to have the marginal risk out since the dynamics are going to be there. The instability is the big question mark. Frontal zone passage is still late Fri night / early Sat morning so while a lot of Sat will now be dry, we will have falling temps and windy conditions. Dry air should punch in for some sunshine though.

Fantasy range looked interesting with a piece of the PV dropping into the Great Lakes. Don't see that very often at all in late October. Pretty remarkable to even see this modeled. But with the weak PV and the -AO we've been seeing for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Yes it's the fantasy GFS but the solution being shown today is actually believable. Not saying it will happen but I can see why it happens and it fits the pattern to be honest.

I just looked at the models and saw that. I was hold on Nellie let's no go overboard yet.

Models are def struggling from about late next week and beyond. I see a different solution almost every run so it'll be a little bit before we can gain any sort of confidence other then the fact that more seasonal temps are about to move in.

[tron777]

CVG ended up getting 0.03" with the warm front. Nothing here or at the Boone Co mesonet site.

[cloudy72]

A ground wetter here

[young pup]

Today's 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the rain / storms holding off until Fri afternoon. What we don't know is do we see AM showers or a lot of clouds before hand to limit the heating for instability. It is ok for the SPC to have the marginal risk out since the dynamics are going to be there. The instability is the big question mark. Frontal zone passage is still late Fri night / early Sat morning so while a lot of Sat will now be dry, we will have falling temps and windy conditions. Dry air should punch in for some sunshine though.

Fantasy range looked interesting with a piece of the PV dropping into the Great Lakes. Don't see that very often at all in late October. Pretty remarkable to even see this modeled. But with the weak PV and the -AO we've been seeing for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Yes it's the fantasy GFS but the solution being shown today is actually believable. Not saying it will happen but I can see why it happens and it fits the pattern to be honest.

I just looked at the models and saw that. I was hold on Nellie let's no go overboard yet.

Models are def struggling from about late next week and beyond. I see a different solution almost every run so it'll be a little bit before we can gain any sort of confidence other then the fact that more seasonal temps are about to move in.

No complaints on seasonal temps here. I will take it.

[tron777]

SPC has us in a slight risk now for portions of AV Country including Cincy. Marg. risk to the north. This is for Fri afternoon and evening. We'll take a closer look at this today.

[Bgoney]

Unless the timing g of the squall can get into cvgland closer to sunset, I'm not expecting severe . I can see gusts 35-45 range with the line by the time it reaches us. Again , if timing moves up, so does severe chance

[tpweather]

SPC has us in a slight risk now for portions of AV Country including Cincy. Marg. risk to the north. This is for Fri afternoon and evening. We'll take a closer look at this today.

No doubt something to watch Les. Should be a nice squall line that pushes through and no doubt some strong winds as the system has plenty of wind energy. The second severe season is usually late Oct through mid-Nov. This is a few weeks early and this tells me some colder shots of air should happen the second half of the month.

[tron777]

Unless the timing g of the squall can get into cvgland closer to sunset, I'm not expecting severe . I can see gusts 35-45 range with the line by the time it reaches us. Again , if timing moves up, so does severe chance

If there are any pre frontal showers, that would also cut down on the severe threat. To me, that is the biggest potential for the SPC's call to bust.

[tron777]

SPC has us in a slight risk now for portions of AV Country including Cincy. Marg. risk to the north. This is for Fri afternoon and evening. We'll take a closer look at this today.

No doubt something to watch Les. Should be a nice squall line that pushes through and no doubt some strong winds as the system has plenty of wind energy. The second severe season is usually late Oct through mid-Nov. This is a few weeks early and this tells me some colder shots of air should happen the second half of the month.

Agree with you and Bgoney... 30-40 mph wind gusts can occur, and probably will but that is sub severe. Even 50 mph. Needs to be 58+ as most folks know. I suppose some spin is there due to the low tracking along the front as it's close to us, but again as I just mentioned in my response to Bgoney... any prefrontal showers, is going to mess with the instability. Granted you don't need much CAPE this time of year because the dynamics can overcome that, but IMO, this doesn't look like a classic fall severe wx set up to me. They probably should have stuck with the marginal risk for everyone that they had out yesterday. We'll see. Plenty of time to watch this and we need to see how tomorrow morning unfolds.

[tron777]

day2otlk_0600.gif

There's the map for reference. 5% TOR, 15% wind and hail are the hazards attm. We'll get another Day 2 Outlook update early this afternoon. Anyway, as discussed, we need to watch the timing of the front and where the low is moving up along it, and if any pre frontal showers lower our instability.

[tron777]

NAM and Euro do show prefrontal showers where the GFS does not. To me that is the key to allow for some heating to develop to go along with the positive factors... shear and helicity.

[tpweather]

I agree chances for a severe storm outbreak is slim but its still a chance. As we know around here a faster moving system with strong winds will tend to keep tornado threat down because of the speed of the system overall. Straight line winds with the front looks like the best shot of severe weather and it will be windy all day but the front itself should produce the strongest winds for a short period of time. Keeping rainfall totals down since the front is moving rather quickly so I am going .25-.50. Saturday will truly feel like fall with sun and clouds and temps probably in the 55-58 degree range in the afternoon. Next week we warm up but only low 70's for the most part and then we see if a cutoff low takes shape and how close it will be to the Ohio Valley. If that upper system is close by and rather strong we could be talking about a day with rain showers and temps in the upper 40's and low 50's.

[cloudy72]

Great posts on the potential for tomorrow. We have all seen it here many times where we get all (or most) the dynamics and a few pesky showers pop early in the day and ruin it all. If I had to favor an area it would be the southern half of the SLGT risk down in KY and TN. As is always the case, we will have to watch the sky and see how much sun we can get and this will determine whether we get a couple of cells or a more robust outbreak because the potential is there on paper for at least some action.

[tron777]

Here's BG's take on it:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/14/goode- ... blog-1014/