Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2021-2022

[tpweather]

Thanks Les and love to see what Larry has to say especially during the winter season. I must admit his forecast and mine over the past several years have been way off and again this year much of his forecast does not agree with the way I see things playing out. Always great though to see these top mets in the country throw out their ideals for the season.

[tron777]

I agree Tim... BG's forecast comes out Halloween night. DT's should be coming out sometime in early November. Have not heard when CB's will come out yet.

[Phr0z3n]

Thank you for posting that Les. I can’t wait to hear DT’s thoughts on this winter as well.

[tron777]

Thank you for posting that Les. I can’t wait to hear DT’s thoughts on this winter as well.

Absolutely! I'll post as much info as I can whenever I run across it. Just like you do.

[tron777]

A little humor on your Sunday morning:

BadNewsBrad.jpg

[tpweather]

A little humor on your Sunday morning:


BadNewsBrad.jpg

That is perfect!!!

[tron777]

NWS LMK (LOU Office) has some thoughts on the upcoming winter:

https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/clima ... 22_LMK.pdf

[tron777]

BG's Winter Weather Outlook:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/31/wave-3 ... KTLLmOiJWw

[westharrisonwx]

BG's Winter Weather Outlook:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/31/wave-3 ... KTLLmOiJWw

I thought his snowfall prediction was disappointing. By making it 10-19", he's covered if it's below or above normal (13.4" is avg).

[Bgoney]

Dr Amy Butler has updated her plot showing the occurrence of SSW years by easterly/westerly QBO and by La Nina/El Nino ENSO:

Thought I'd update this plot since I'm getting retweets of older versions. I've added/changed some things; here using NDJ QBO 50 hPa and Nino 3.4 from CPC. Solid dots = corresponding winters (Nov-Mar) with SSWs, empty dots = winters with no SSWs.

Screenshot_20211101-114945_Chrome.jpg

I've added the frequency of #SSWs for each quadrant (QBO +/-, Nino 3.4 +/- 0.5), and the barplots show the frequency of SSWs in each "bin" of either Nino 3.4 or QBO phase. The black dashed line on the histogram shows the overall frequency 0.63 SSWs/yr in JRA-55 reanalysis.

This shows we get the most #SSWs during La Nina winters and easterly #QBO. But [the occurrence of] this combination also happens by far the least (only 6 NDJs in a 64 year record!). It also shows that you get increased SSWs in both phases of ENSO relative to neutral, and for strong easterly QBOs.

Currently, it's looking possible to get the elusive #LaNina, easterly #QBO this winter, but it's hard to say for sure because QBO at 50 hPa is still westerly and taking its sweet time changing to easterly.

The final takeaway from this figure is that it's possible to get a #SSW in any phase of ENSO/QBO. It's just more likely in some phases compared to others.

Note the years refer to the "Jan" of the NDJ period- so, for example you can see 2021 on the chart- that is NDJ of 2020-21

[tron777]

BG's Winter Weather Outlook:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/31/wave-3 ... KTLLmOiJWw

I thought his snowfall prediction was disappointing. By making it 10-19", he's covered if it's below or above normal (13.4" is avg).

LOU seems to get screwed even more then CVG does so I can't blame him to be honest. Predicting snow is so hard to do for a single storm let alone an entire season. I think getting the 500 MB pattern correct and temps are more important. You always need some luck in getting a good snow storm. I get your point though when using a range, it does allow you more wiggle room. I get it, but it's still a tough thing, predicting snow.

[tron777]

Dr Amy Butler has updated her plot showing the occurrence of SSW years by easterly/westerly QBO and by La Nina/El Nino ENSO:

Thought I'd update this plot since I'm getting retweets of older versions. I've added/changed some things; here using NDJ QBO 50 hPa and Nino 3.4 from CPC. Solid dots = corresponding winters (Nov-Mar) with SSWs, empty dots = winters with no SSWs.
Screenshot_20211101-114945_Chrome.jpg
I've added the frequency of #SSWs for each quadrant (QBO +/-, Nino 3.4 +/- 0.5), and the barplots show the frequency of SSWs in each "bin" of either Nino 3.4 or QBO phase. The black dashed line on the histogram shows the overall frequency 0.63 SSWs/yr in JRA-55 reanalysis.

This shows we get the most #SSWs during La Nina winters and easterly #QBO. But [the occurrence of] this combination also happens by far the least (only 6 NDJs in a 64 year record!). It also shows that you get increased SSWs in both phases of ENSO relative to neutral, and for strong easterly QBOs.

Currently, it's looking possible to get the elusive #LaNina, easterly #QBO this winter, but it's hard to say for sure because QBO at 50 hPa is still westerly and taking its sweet time changing to easterly.

The final takeaway from this figure is that it's possible to get a #SSW in any phase of ENSO/QBO. It's just more likely in some phases compared to others.

Note the years refer to the "Jan" of the NDJ period- so, for example you can see 2021 on the chart- that is NDJ of 2020-21

Very interesting info! And Amy is right... when we post the QBO reading on here every month, that number is for 30 MB and not 50 MB. I probably should have clarified that sooner. I forgot too. The QBO at 30 MB has been solidly negative for a while, but it is not yet in sync as Amy has pretty much stated. Should it flip negative at 50 MB, then the correlation of her research seeing more frequent SSW's in a Nina with a -QBO would def have a better chance of occurring this winter.

[Phr0z3n]

Dr Amy Butler has updated her plot showing the occurrence of SSW years by easterly/westerly QBO and by La Nina/El Nino ENSO:

Thought I'd update this plot since I'm getting retweets of older versions. I've added/changed some things; here using NDJ QBO 50 hPa and Nino 3.4 from CPC. Solid dots = corresponding winters (Nov-Mar) with SSWs, empty dots = winters with no SSWs.
Screenshot_20211101-114945_Chrome.jpg
I've added the frequency of #SSWs for each quadrant (QBO +/-, Nino 3.4 +/- 0.5), and the barplots show the frequency of SSWs in each "bin" of either Nino 3.4 or QBO phase. The black dashed line on the histogram shows the overall frequency 0.63 SSWs/yr in JRA-55 reanalysis.

This shows we get the most #SSWs during La Nina winters and easterly #QBO. But [the occurrence of] this combination also happens by far the least (only 6 NDJs in a 64 year record!). It also shows that you get increased SSWs in both phases of ENSO relative to neutral, and for strong easterly QBOs.

Currently, it's looking possible to get the elusive #LaNina, easterly #QBO this winter, but it's hard to say for sure because QBO at 50 hPa is still westerly and taking its sweet time changing to easterly.

The final takeaway from this figure is that it's possible to get a #SSW in any phase of ENSO/QBO. It's just more likely in some phases compared to others.

Note the years refer to the "Jan" of the NDJ period- so, for example you can see 2021 on the chart- that is NDJ of 2020-21

Thanks for posting. Looks like qbo 50 is negative now and should stay negative. You can see the descending wave take over at 50 hpa

69889C4C-2C0A-4B9A-96E6-67659D09FAC0.png

Especially the last part of this. You can see a more abrupt downward trend. I’ll see if I have this right but if memory serves me correct global circulation from the tropics poleward is disrupted somewhat from westerly zonal anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere. This graph explains it nicely that it can still happen with westerly qbo/el nino it’s just more difficult if the anomalous zonal winds are disturbed.

7879F4AF-B4CE-4A95-BCA8-29ADB7B37AFD.png

[tron777]

Dr Amy Butler has updated her plot showing the occurrence of SSW years by easterly/westerly QBO and by La Nina/El Nino ENSO:

Thought I'd update this plot since I'm getting retweets of older versions. I've added/changed some things; here using NDJ QBO 50 hPa and Nino 3.4 from CPC. Solid dots = corresponding winters (Nov-Mar) with SSWs, empty dots = winters with no SSWs.
Screenshot_20211101-114945_Chrome.jpg
I've added the frequency of #SSWs for each quadrant (QBO +/-, Nino 3.4 +/- 0.5), and the barplots show the frequency of SSWs in each "bin" of either Nino 3.4 or QBO phase. The black dashed line on the histogram shows the overall frequency 0.63 SSWs/yr in JRA-55 reanalysis.

This shows we get the most #SSWs during La Nina winters and easterly #QBO. But [the occurrence of] this combination also happens by far the least (only 6 NDJs in a 64 year record!). It also shows that you get increased SSWs in both phases of ENSO relative to neutral, and for strong easterly QBOs.

Currently, it's looking possible to get the elusive #LaNina, easterly #QBO this winter, but it's hard to say for sure because QBO at 50 hPa is still westerly and taking its sweet time changing to easterly.

The final takeaway from this figure is that it's possible to get a #SSW in any phase of ENSO/QBO. It's just more likely in some phases compared to others.

Note the years refer to the "Jan" of the NDJ period- so, for example you can see 2021 on the chart- that is NDJ of 2020-21

Thanks for posting. Looks like qbo 50 is negative now and should stay negative. You can see the descending wave take over at 50 hpa
69889C4C-2C0A-4B9A-96E6-67659D09FAC0.png
Especially the last part of this. You can see a more abrupt downward trend. I’ll see if I have this right but if memory serves me correct global circulation from the tropics poleward is disrupted somewhat from westerly zonal anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere. This graph explains it nicely that it can still happen with westerly qbo/el nino it’s just more difficult if the anomalous zonal winds are disturbed.
7879F4AF-B4CE-4A95-BCA8-29ADB7B37AFD.png

Thanks Matt for posting the info on the QBO esp at 50 MB. That makes me feel better seeing that it has flipped negative per the chart you posted. If that trend can continue, which I don't see why it won't, then I would expect to see another SSW down the road. Currently, the PV is going to re-strengthen as we've discussed on here, but it should be a temporary thing. What are your thoughts on seeing this occur? I would assume that if it's going to happen, we would see another SSW perhaps in early December?

[tpweather]

Great Posts guys and love the info. The one thing I keep looking at for the incoming winter is the ridging in the west. Does this ridging expand northward towards the poles and what I see so far is a possible pattern that will promote that and this could give us those cold shots in December. So yes still love an early start to winter and very nice until February which I am expecting a mild February and March that leads us into a very warm spring which has not been the case in recent years.

[Bgoney]

Few more charts to ponder.

PV strengthening to near normal over the next 7-10 days, after that a large spread in either direction.

Screenshot_20211101-183142_Chrome.jpg

LaNina continues its steady strengthening

Screenshot_20211101-182539_Chrome.jpg

With more easterlies the next 7 days

Screenshot_20211101-182413_Chrome.jpg

Sub-surface anomalies fairly impressive, with a pocket of -7 or -8 which I would assume is rare these days

Screenshot_20211101-182108_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Great Posts guys and love the info. The one thing I keep looking at for the incoming winter is the ridging in the west. Does this ridging expand northward towards the poles and what I see so far is a possible pattern that will promote that and this could give us those cold shots in December. So yes still love an early start to winter and very nice until February which I am expecting a mild February and March that leads us into a very warm spring which has not been the case in recent years.

Tim... I've been hearing a lot of talk about a Yukon Ridge. Ridging in the Yukon Territory of Canada as the name suggests. (You knew that of course) Anyway... I'd like to see that happen and continue to see that happen in the future to promote colder air for us as well as troughiness. So this post is tied directly into what you're saying in your post.

[tron777]

Few more charts to ponder.

PV strengthening to near normal over the next 7-10 days, after that a large spread in either direction.

Screenshot_20211101-183142_Chrome.jpg

LaNina continues its steady strengthening

Screenshot_20211101-182539_Chrome.jpg

With more easterlies the next 7 days

Screenshot_20211101-182413_Chrome.jpg

Sub-surface anomalies fairly impressive, with a pocket of -7 or -8 which I would assume is rare these days

Screenshot_20211101-182108_Chrome.jpg

Matt and I have discussed the PV a little bit today so I will move on. With the La Nina continuing to strengthen, this was expected in November. What I do like is that this appears to be turning into more of a basin wide event versus a Modiki or even Western based. East based isn't too bad but if we see a moderate Nina out of this, then a basin wide event is better IMO. Also... if we continue to see the blocking in the AO and NAO domain, that will help to fight off the SE Ridge some and keep the storm track further south then you'd otherwise expect in a La Nina. The EPO being negative as we all know is better for cold air production and that is a wildcard that we will need to keep an eye on. My point that I've been hammering is the blocking. I think it stays for a while thru Nov and Dec at least because it's been so persistent as everyone knows this Fall that it is very established now. It won't go away that easily. It's going to be an interesting battle this winter between the Nina (who wants to promote trough west / ridge east) and the blocking in the AO and NAO domain which usually helps promote more cold and storminess in the Eastern US. It's going to be a wild winter without a doubt no matter what the actual outcome turns out to be.

[Phr0z3n]

Dr Amy Butler has updated her plot showing the occurrence of SSW years by easterly/westerly QBO and by La Nina/El Nino ENSO:

Thought I'd update this plot since I'm getting retweets of older versions. I've added/changed some things; here using NDJ QBO 50 hPa and Nino 3.4 from CPC. Solid dots = corresponding winters (Nov-Mar) with SSWs, empty dots = winters with no SSWs.
Screenshot_20211101-114945_Chrome.jpg
I've added the frequency of #SSWs for each quadrant (QBO +/-, Nino 3.4 +/- 0.5), and the barplots show the frequency of SSWs in each "bin" of either Nino 3.4 or QBO phase. The black dashed line on the histogram shows the overall frequency 0.63 SSWs/yr in JRA-55 reanalysis.

This shows we get the most #SSWs during La Nina winters and easterly #QBO. But [the occurrence of] this combination also happens by far the least (only 6 NDJs in a 64 year record!). It also shows that you get increased SSWs in both phases of ENSO relative to neutral, and for strong easterly QBOs.

Currently, it's looking possible to get the elusive #LaNina, easterly #QBO this winter, but it's hard to say for sure because QBO at 50 hPa is still westerly and taking its sweet time changing to easterly.

The final takeaway from this figure is that it's possible to get a #SSW in any phase of ENSO/QBO. It's just more likely in some phases compared to others.

Note the years refer to the "Jan" of the NDJ period- so, for example you can see 2021 on the chart- that is NDJ of 2020-21

Thanks for posting. Looks like qbo 50 is negative now and should stay negative. You can see the descending wave take over at 50 hpa
69889C4C-2C0A-4B9A-96E6-67659D09FAC0.png
Especially the last part of this. You can see a more abrupt downward trend. I’ll see if I have this right but if memory serves me correct global circulation from the tropics poleward is disrupted somewhat from westerly zonal anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere. This graph explains it nicely that it can still happen with westerly qbo/el nino it’s just more difficult if the anomalous zonal winds are disturbed.
7879F4AF-B4CE-4A95-BCA8-29ADB7B37AFD.png

Thanks Matt for posting the info on the QBO esp at 50 MB. That makes me feel better seeing that it has flipped negative per the chart you posted. If that trend can continue, which I don't see why it won't, then I would expect to see another SSW down the road. Currently, the PV is going to re-strengthen as we've discussed on here, but it should be a temporary thing. What are your thoughts on seeing this occur? I would assume that if it's going to happen, we would see another SSW perhaps in early December?

Your guess is as good as mine about a ssw. In my opinion it’s a good thing it’s strengthening. Especially since the atmosphere is right for SSW’s. Stronger polar vortex means a stronger lobe split into daughter vortices. We’re really not in a bad spot I think the negative WPO will be in the driver seat for awhile. This can be seen clearly in the gefs extended 7 day temp anomaly plot

B8DE1066-FA11-4903-882E-89E36EBA4B30.png

It seems like our cold air transport will come from south west Canada. Epo Nao and Pna are relatively neutral to slight pos/neg where the -WPO is set to tank

84863B9A-ED22-491B-B697-5E77BBAB5B17.png

A38A51F1-066F-4F71-98FF-0FE69E3515E2.png

899E835D-DBFC-47EC-A812-87EDFCD5CDC8.png

D10C308F-CB0E-4ADD-BE4A-524A922996FD.png

[Phr0z3n]

Few more charts to ponder.

PV strengthening to near normal over the next 7-10 days, after that a large spread in either direction.

Screenshot_20211101-183142_Chrome.jpg

LaNina continues its steady strengthening

Screenshot_20211101-182539_Chrome.jpg

With more easterlies the next 7 days

Screenshot_20211101-182413_Chrome.jpg

Sub-surface anomalies fairly impressive, with a pocket of -7 or -8 which I would assume is rare these days

Screenshot_20211101-182108_Chrome.jpg

This is a good post. I really don’t see anything getting in the way of seeing this La Niña deepen. Upper ocean heat content anomaly map shows a very weak MJo wave having almost no propagation over the nino regions. I think the anomalous 850 zonal easterly wind strengthening is due to the MJo wave.

458242CA-5397-434E-B7B0-4F471185D0BC.png

025E9B96-7909-4950-9BBF-63CB9B3F7529.gif

AF4BB2C6-9F63-44C0-9293-557E7389FF8C.png

This Niña looks stronger than last year especially when you compare upper ocean heat content anomalies.

[tron777]

Hey Matt... thanks for your response. I have read that a -WPO in a La Nina is a good thing since that usually means that the North Pacific ridge should go more poleward instead of it being more flat. If it's flat, that typically means that we're flooded with mild Pacific air and the jet wouldn't be able to buckle to allow for cold air drainage southward. Would love to see the -WPO and -EPO both go negative together as we saw in 2013-2014. That would be perfect to go along with the active storm track. No idea what'll happen there yet, but I think it's a good sign anyway going forward seeing the -WPO.

[tpweather]

Les and Matt had some wonderful posts last night and this is why the forum is so good. Les I believe you made the key point IMO. That is concerning La Nina. Having a basin wide La Nina is so much better for us in terms of winter weather and to me this seems likely. I know the talk is about a moderate La Nina but I am holding off on that because if you get these colder waters in a much wider area then this will tend to keep the La Nina from getting out of hand IMO. I could be dead wrong but over the past few months you could sort of see how the colder waters were expanding and covering more area.

Going to be a bigger than normal fight this season as the players on the field all want to take control early on and does it just become a dog fight all season which would have us going back and forth in terms of cold and warmth or will one of those key players bully their way to the top and then it could be some very big busts both ways. Last year we waited and waited for winter and still believe the late heavy snows in northern Siberia had a lot to do with that happening and when you have something that does not occur very often models and mets have a harder time figuring out what may happen down the road.

[tron777]

This kind of piggybacks to our QBO and SSW discussion:

[tron777]

Neoweather's Winter Weather Outlook:

https://neoweather.us/seasonal/outlooks ... Io3ql7DOgo

[tron777]

Not sure if anyone posted it or not... but JB over at Weatherbell updated their winter weather outlook on 10/28:

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2021-22-forecast