April 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I think a dusting is possible for us with an inch plus north and west of Metro Cincinnati. A 2-4" type of event looks likely from IND to TOL corridor.

[MVWxObserver]

Wonder when the last time was that DAY, CMH, CVG i.e. etc. had a trace to any measurable snowfall for April?

[tron777]

Thank you all! Good to be back.

GFS likes a 1-3" snowfall for the area. This model continues to be the coldest solution and furthest south with the low track. Most models have come SE over the last 24-36 hours. Still think the GFS is overdone. I like my call from the previous post. I think everyone sees flakes with this system. Best chance for accumulations... North and West.

[tron777]

Wonder when the last time was that DAY, CMH, CVG i.e. etc. had a trace to any measurable snowfall for April?

4/16/18 when 0.8" fell at CVG. So just a couple of years ago.

[tron777]

LOL @ 12Z GEFS... it is pretty cold and snowy too showing warning criteria snowfall for I-70 Corridor.

[tron777]

UKIE is also interesting showing a 1-3" type snowfall for the area.

[tron777]

Latesnowfall.png

[tpweather]

Hey Les and really the most important question deals with the snow totals if we get any be added to our contest. I really need the help lol. I know the contest ends March 31st but gotta give me credit for asking.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has went towards the SE Camp with the GFS, GEFS, UKIE, etc. interesting.... We might be in that up to 1" group even in Metro Cincy if some of the models are correct.

[tron777]

Hey Les and really the most important question deals with the snow totals if we get any be added to our contest. I really need the help lol. I know the contest ends March 31st but gotta give me credit for asking.

Sorry Tim... the contest ended on 3/31 so it's over. But it does get tacked on to our seasonal total for CVG definitely.

[cloudy72]

Snow Depth Map comparison - NAM vs GFS:

NAM.png

GFS.png

[tpweather]

Yes getting snow this late in the season is rare so you must look around the world to see where the weather is somewhat opposite of what it should be as mother nature always has a plan to keep us going. I believe Saturday in Juneau,Alaska set an all time high temp for the day. We know record will fall here and there but they broke the record by 10 degrees. A major hurricane in the Philippines which is common but having one this early and this strong seldom happens. Snow in Saudi Arabia which will happen once in awhile but in April it seldom happens.

As most know on here tropical systems in the pacific are Typhoons not Hurricanes. Need to read my post before I post it lol.

[tron777]

Based on the 12Z suite, I like the call I have made and will summarize it again.

North and West of most of us: 2" plus possible
I-70 Crew: 1" plus possible
Cincy Metro: Dusting / covering
SE Crew: No accumulation - will still see flakes fly.

[tron777]

AFD from the boys talking about the cold and snow in the coming days:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
It will be an interesting forecast for the Tuesday/Tuesday
night time frame.

Mid level energy digging east then northeast from the central
Plains to the western Great Lakes will perturb a wave of low
pressure along aforementioned briefly stalled out frontal
boundary near the Ohio River. This will initially result in a
wide range of temperatures on Tuesday with highs ranging from
the mid 40s far northwest to the mid 60s far southeast.
Precipitation associated with the low is expected to be
generated by decent low to mid level frontogenesis on the back
side of the low track. So, we should see a mostly dry day for
most of the region, but that will change quickly as the low
makes its way northeast through the Ohio Valley.

For Tuesday night, a lot of weather will be packed in a short
period of time. As the low deepens, frontogenetic driven pcpn
will rotate from west to east across the forecast area
overnight. Much colder air is expected to filter into the area
as the low pulls way. This will allow the rain to mix with and
change to snow before tapering off from west to east by Tuesday
morning. Operational models have been showing a slight trend to
the southeast with the low track which would allow a little more
snow farther southeast than previous forecast. Speaking of
snow, determining accumulations will be tough given warm ground.
However, falling temperatures into the lower 30s and the event
occurring at night are in favor for accumulations, especially
elevated surfaces such as grass, vehicles, etc. Impacts to
travel will be limited to visibility reduction and some slushy
accums on pavement where snow may fall moderately to locally
heavy for a brief period of time. The current forecast calls for
the most snow to fall over west central Ohio where 1 to 3
inches will be possible. 1 to 2 inches will be possible for the
Whitewater/Miami Valleys, with an inch or less possible along
the I-71 corridor. With temperatures dropping into the 30s and
perhaps even upper 20s, a Freeze Warning will be hoisted for a
good part of the area for late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

On Wednesday, the low and its mid level energy will quickly
move away to the northeast. We should see pcpn taper off by
morning with a break in pcpn action until late in the day when a
weak disturbance is forecast to rotate into the area. By then,
light pcpn should be in the form of rain as temperatures will
rise into the lower to mid 40s. Despite this rise, these values
will be some 20 degrees below normal for late April. It will be
chilly with brisk west to northeast winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term will start out with well below normal
temperatures. Temperatures Wednesday night are expected to drop
into the 20s. Models have been consistent with bringing through
a weak feature Wednesday night into Thursday. Have a slight
chance to chance of precipitation in the forecast to account for
this. Expect this precipitation to move out of the region by
the afternoon hours on Thursday.

One more cold night of potential subfreezing temperatures is
expected Thursday night with lows in the lower 30s expected
across most locations. Kept frost out of the forecast for now as
there is the potential for some cloud cover, however frost may
have to be added for at least a part of the area as it gets
closer.

[BookNerdCarp]

sadly I am in Spring mode....

[tron777]

18Z GFS tracks a deepening low from Central KY into the OH / WVA / KY border area. Nice track for more of AV Country to receive a band of heavy, wet accumulating snow in the deformation band Tues night. 1-3" for much of the region being shown with the heaviest stripe from Central IN thru West Central OH - 3-5" there.

[tron777]

18Z NAM is more north with the low track right over us so the better chances would also be shifted NW versus the GFS. The new 18Z GEFS, supports the Operational run.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and beautiful down here in SC though I know the heat will be here before you know it. Concerning snowfall and still sticking with a dusting locally and from Indy to Toledo a 1-2 inch snowfall is possible and maybe a touch more towards Toledo but that area will be getting the snow a tad earlier when there is still some daylight so that would tend to hold down accumulations. Years ago when Rich A. was alive we always had the argument about how much snow falls and what we count as accumulations. I was always on the side of snowfall on the ground not melted snow and this will be one of those situations when yes we could get .25 inches liquid but snow on the ground is a dusting. Late April and the ground is warm even at night but yes heavy enough snow may be able to overtake all the negatives. My guess is models will have problems and overestimate by at least twice the amount.

[MVWxObserver]

sadly I am in Spring mode....

Same here, Matt, big time!

Hopefully by the last week of April going into May finally some long term sustained warmth, Bro!

[tron777]

Good Evening and beautiful down here in SC though I know the heat will be here before you know it. Concerning snowfall and still sticking with a dusting locally and from Indy to Toledo a 1-2 inch snowfall is possible and maybe a touch more towards Toledo but that area will be getting the snow a tad earlier when there is still some daylight so that would tend to hold down accumulations. Years ago when Rich A. was alive we always had the argument about how much snow falls and what we count as accumulations. I was always on the side of snowfall on the ground not melted snow and this will be one of those situations when yes we could get .25 inches liquid but snow on the ground is a dusting. Late April and the ground is warm even at night but yes heavy enough snow may be able to overtake all the negatives. My guess is models will have problems and overestimate by at least twice the amount.

The bulk of the snow at least for us locally will be at night after midnight so that is favorable. We will need heavy precip rates for accumulations since it is after mid April now, but there will be a narrow band of backside snowfall. I think someone could get 4" or more out of it. Not in our forecast area though.

[tron777]

At CVG, daily snowfall records are as follows:

4/20: T from 2003
4/21: 1.5" from 1901

Record lows or record high min temps are not in jeopardy during this time.

[dce]

Good Evening and beautiful down here in SC though I know the heat will be here before you know it. Concerning snowfall and still sticking with a dusting locally and from Indy to Toledo a 1-2 inch snowfall is possible and maybe a touch more towards Toledo but that area will be getting the snow a tad earlier when there is still some daylight so that would tend to hold down accumulations. Years ago when Rich A. was alive we always had the argument about how much snow falls and what we count as accumulations. I was always on the side of snowfall on the ground not melted snow and this will be one of those situations when yes we could get .25 inches liquid but snow on the ground is a dusting. Late April and the ground is warm even at night but yes heavy enough snow may be able to overtake all the negatives. My guess is models will have problems and overestimate by at least twice the amount.

The bulk of the snow at least for us locally will be at night after midnight so that is favorable. We will need heavy precip rates for accumulations since it is after mid April now, but there will be a narrow band of backside snowfall. I think someone could get 4" or more out of it. Not in our forecast area though.

If there are areas that truly end up with 3-4" totals I would be really concerned about downed tree limbs and power lines. The leaves have really begun to pop over the last week. If this snow falls when the sun is down and it has a chance to accumulate on trees I would be kind of concerned.

[Sargent51]

No snow. No thank you. That’s the post. Good night.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Evening and beautiful down here in SC though I know the heat will be here before you know it. Concerning snowfall and still sticking with a dusting locally and from Indy to Toledo a 1-2 inch snowfall is possible and maybe a touch more towards Toledo but that area will be getting the snow a tad earlier when there is still some daylight so that would tend to hold down accumulations. Years ago when Rich A. was alive we always had the argument about how much snow falls and what we count as accumulations. I was always on the side of snowfall on the ground not melted snow and this will be one of those situations when yes we could get .25 inches liquid but snow on the ground is a dusting. Late April and the ground is warm even at night but yes heavy enough snow may be able to overtake all the negatives. My guess is models will have problems and overestimate by at least twice the amount.

The bulk of the snow at least for us locally will be at night after midnight so that is favorable. We will need heavy precip rates for accumulations since it is after mid April now, but there will be a narrow band of backside snowfall. I think someone could get 4" or more out of it. Not in our forecast area though.

If there are areas that truly end up with 3-4" totals I would be really concerned about downed tree limbs and power lines. The leaves have really begun to pop over the last week. If this snow falls when the sun is down and it has a chance to accumulate on trees I would be kind of concerned.

Thankful that my folks got rid of our Sugar Maples.

[tron777]

Good Evening and beautiful down here in SC though I know the heat will be here before you know it. Concerning snowfall and still sticking with a dusting locally and from Indy to Toledo a 1-2 inch snowfall is possible and maybe a touch more towards Toledo but that area will be getting the snow a tad earlier when there is still some daylight so that would tend to hold down accumulations. Years ago when Rich A. was alive we always had the argument about how much snow falls and what we count as accumulations. I was always on the side of snowfall on the ground not melted snow and this will be one of those situations when yes we could get .25 inches liquid but snow on the ground is a dusting. Late April and the ground is warm even at night but yes heavy enough snow may be able to overtake all the negatives. My guess is models will have problems and overestimate by at least twice the amount.

The bulk of the snow at least for us locally will be at night after midnight so that is favorable. We will need heavy precip rates for accumulations since it is after mid April now, but there will be a narrow band of backside snowfall. I think someone could get 4" or more out of it. Not in our forecast area though.

If there are areas that truly end up with 3-4" totals I would be really concerned about downed tree limbs and power lines. The leaves have really begun to pop over the last week. If this snow falls when the sun is down and it has a chance to accumulate on trees I would be kind of concerned.

That could certainly become a problem for folks north and west of our CWA. I think we'll be fine. Even if you get 1-2" up your way, it'll melt fairly quickly.